{
  "schema_version": 3,
  "research_date": "2026-10-18",
  "generated_by": "python3 -I tools/scorecard.py",
  "hero_sentence": "In layers. Reported regional users and revenue anchors are imposed by construction. Of 101 other public targets, none yet supports a definition-matched independent comparison. Feature effects have no fair held-out test. Rival launches are what-ifs. Separately, 3 of four leave-one-out calibration medians meet their original tolerances; this is cross-validation of calibration targets.",
  "counts": {
    "targets": 103,
    "behaviour_targets": 101,
    "independent_comparisons": 0,
    "within_tolerance": 0,
    "by_status": {
      "reconciled": 2,
      "used for calibration": 2,
      "used to set priors": 13,
      "independent: within tolerance": 0,
      "independent: outside tolerance": 0,
      "not comparable": 44,
      "not exported": 42
    },
    "leave_one_out_comparisons": 4,
    "leave_one_out_within_tolerance": 3,
    "leave_one_out_outside_tolerance": 1
  },
  "batch": {
    "path": "out/grounding-48.json",
    "sha256": "bdbdffe69d5e05acff85ec6be943404566a07acad50d8eba8a0ec970c63e7895",
    "worlds": 48,
    "days": 150,
    "agents": 300000,
    "made": {
      "burn_in": 180,
      "config_source_hash": "fcd35ea7ff4c63cc",
      "engine_source_hash": "aa33814f61e0ea25",
      "engine_version": "0.1.0",
      "reaction_checks_hash": "82a20862df8dfe8e",
      "reactions_hash": "e918f2bc8750cca5",
      "seed": 20261019,
      "world_file_hash": "ebc48639e81e6a5d"
    },
    "claim": "Computed scenario ranges under stated assumptions, not forecasts or probabilities of real outcomes. Country and state counts are allocations."
  },
  "inputs": [
    {
      "path": "out/grounding-48.json",
      "sha256": "bdbdffe69d5e05acff85ec6be943404566a07acad50d8eba8a0ec970c63e7895"
    },
    {
      "path": "out/latest.json",
      "sha256": "f91e4181999c4cb5b51da8016510b07e62c315e3f8c6527b17f453ffde9f53f3"
    },
    {
      "path": "world/targets.json",
      "sha256": "5dad4d5e1f6b77e97bbcfd82ff257747e5fdca2475573c84329023391ed511c5"
    },
    {
      "path": "world/world.toml",
      "sha256": "347211bb8a612686dc723f30e4733d476e3c123c62883d0961f92e71f34283c8"
    },
    {
      "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
      "sha256": "517ccbcfa4df302034ded9035ef10a897c25faa918bedb29bca4fe9174934bb4"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/docking.json",
      "sha256": "250dedd7d5b1d541cc28a25008f95ce619b35ba280f4abe712c0fe0e9f669ab9"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/holdout.json",
      "sha256": "06781fc36b48d925b1b2b8b81841a2afa28a56248a527363dd8b45ae5ce4e62e"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/backtest.json",
      "sha256": "7578727084de48f3cb45e58fb9cb98d7b26b474f10f6c358a8e4923842568316"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/engine-backtest.json",
      "sha256": "862e2ba19d35f99dc9fd9330b0999801f89399366d2940d762255177f11d5d65"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/replay-2021.json",
      "sha256": "f6eace950eebe8fdc8f91a2931d9ab521979dc9e00432d1e4d5f9123f6e7b32e"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/season-check.json",
      "sha256": "9e91836eaadea6b7f0b8bc2a015c0a057bfd9d0506435150993457c7ca07bbb1"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/reactions-check.json",
      "sha256": "a74272e7ed6888cc4080fbcc3d952777dd5dddc8f67f3232d98cf74adf0c2782"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/ledger.json",
      "sha256": "2289feb80681af20d2ef0e92b18a4db0fbe61d262574a84a7b38654fc7878b69"
    },
    {
      "path": "web/leave-one-out.json",
      "sha256": "675046a5dd23e0291aba524e7465be9e7dee23ea0e220e0d3021d900761dbc6a"
    },
    {
      "path": "research/25-leave-one-out.md",
      "sha256": "78bf5b479539b0714e8782ee95390399d74a65002b3f5cf67a587f16e2bd6070"
    }
  ],
  "methods": [
    "Every simulated result is a range under stated assumptions, never a forecast or a measurement of people.",
    "Scoring uses the median against explicit inclusive bounds, never range overlap. Full min–max and 5th–95th percentiles are assumption spread, not confidence or prediction intervals.",
    "Unfitted exports contain only three regional means across worlds. Their min–max is a regional spread, not uncertainty across worlds. Paired baseline totals permit world ranges for global ratios, before regional reconciliation.",
    "Statuses are mutually exclusive; precedence is reconciliation, acceptance calibration, prior use, export availability, definition/evidence suitability, then tolerance. Mixed target rows name the component assessed; no component agreement validates the entire row.",
    "The grounding round reran simulations and tests; its protocol, selected batch and prospective conditional diagnostics are embedded below. The original four acceptance checks are in-sample; two growth checks have no separate target row. Leave-one-out cross-validation with one gate withheld is reported separately and never added to the 103-target ledger or its strict independent count.",
    "Presence of a source in research is not proof of fitting. Figure/URL leads were reviewed against parameter bases, builders and tuning history. U04 was prospectively reserved but fails the definition gate; neither it nor P17 enters strict independent counts. No new target was fitted."
  ],
  "calibration_checks": [
    {
      "basis": "Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly; register inputs: measured",
      "check": "wau_mau",
      "group": "",
      "kept_mean": 0.6400159884249251,
      "target": 0.62,
      "tolerance": 0.04
    },
    {
      "basis": "Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent",
      "check": "growth",
      "group": "UCAN",
      "kept_mean": 0.058598055850619245,
      "target": 0.04,
      "tolerance": 0.05
    },
    {
      "basis": "Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent",
      "check": "growth",
      "group": "",
      "kept_mean": 0.10390522765235244,
      "target": 0.11,
      "tolerance": 0.07
    },
    {
      "basis": "Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users; register inputs: measured; derived using Q4 2025 MAU, rounded to one decimal",
      "check": "click_outs_per_user_month",
      "group": "",
      "kept_mean": 2.1678063296730206,
      "target": 2.7,
      "tolerance": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "grounding_round": {
    "registration": {
      "timestamp": "2026-10-19T06:15:38Z",
      "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
      "new_calibration_targets": [],
      "held_out_candidates": [
        "U04"
      ],
      "strict_independent_targets": [],
      "limits": "U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison."
    },
    "definition": "Population-weighted baseline counts in millions; activity is summed person-days. Device is fixed primary entry, not observed OS/installations or actual cross-device sessions. MAU is rolling 30 days. Ratios pair numerator/denominator within each world after the same baseline regional scaling as scenario accounting; ranges describe assumption spread, not measurement error. No seconds, query events, logged-out web visits or historical panel populations are inferred.",
    "start_date": "2026-10-19",
    "new_calibration_targets": 0,
    "held_out_candidates": 1,
    "strict_independent_comparisons": 0,
    "diagnostics": {
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          "min": 0.18850220381286925,
          "max": 0.23021902410421957,
          "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
          "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "verdict": "outside tolerance",
        "definition_gate_passed": false,
        "gate_reason": "U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison.",
        "included_in_independent_count": false,
        "tolerance": {
          "low": 0.24,
          "high": 0.31,
          "unit": "app DAU/MAU",
          "rationale": "Pre-registered supplied-target band, with inclusive endpoints and no post-result slack. The reopened secondary table implies roughly 0.242-0.322, so the supplied 0.24-0.31 is not its exact min-max or a measurement-error band. Bounds remain frozen; applied to the median only, conditional on unresolved population/window equivalence."
        }
      },
      "P17": {
        "engine": {
          "median": 6.3009780725225735,
          "min": 4.323043847320742,
          "max": 10.704424892955657,
          "p5": 4.6756952847667685,
          "p95": 8.735155013633788,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "verdict": "outside tolerance",
        "definition_gate_passed": false,
        "gate_reason": "Save measurement period unknown; persistence from 2023 is unverified.",
        "included_in_independent_count": false,
        "tolerance": {
          "low": 10.178571428571429,
          "high": null,
          "unit": "saves/MAU/month",
          "rationale": "Pre-registered one-sided diagnostic only: assumes the old 1.5B weekly saves persists at 640M MAU. No current measurement period has been established."
        }
      }
    },
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          "max": 0.23021902410421957,
          "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
          "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "sessions_per_dau": {
          "median": 2.3624319924482364,
          "min": 2.0937139207011524,
          "max": 2.635306421567296,
          "p5": 2.193607466182105,
          "p95": 2.6093372497279477,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "mau_share": {
          "median": 0.8474192074853406,
          "min": 0.8243448272300151,
          "max": 0.8923269860337694,
          "p5": 0.8291623910358571,
          "p95": 0.8681328438432148,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "session_share": {
          "median": 0.8520367588278317,
          "min": 0.8292179077759259,
          "max": 0.8931446262247466,
          "p5": 0.8362919986881254,
          "p95": 0.8719865921311164,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "impression_share": {
          "median": 0.8523309549765179,
          "min": 0.8294500837583708,
          "max": 0.893317063322343,
          "p5": 0.8365113864348315,
          "p95": 0.8721554598064655,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "mobile_web": {
        "dau_mau": {
          "median": 0.20102271496119933,
          "min": 0.17756426294950503,
          "max": 0.22506626466427374,
          "p5": 0.18656003071441762,
          "p95": 0.22175711980994897,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "sessions_per_dau": {
          "median": 2.362969856270897,
          "min": 2.098157982569399,
          "max": 2.6424378184992054,
          "p5": 2.1979900435652806,
          "p95": 2.600784398781752,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "mau_share": {
          "median": 0.09036211875541644,
          "min": 0.05915963752477359,
          "max": 0.10994784020728886,
          "p5": 0.07587449589162161,
          "p95": 0.10061517452107349,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "session_share": {
          "median": 0.08681935256927617,
          "min": 0.05945940315397268,
          "max": 0.10434072348313256,
          "p5": 0.07436915763965364,
          "p95": 0.09659554570820264,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "impression_share": {
          "median": 0.08680851403274328,
          "min": 0.05927387814422693,
          "max": 0.1042784006780073,
          "p5": 0.07433460050259878,
          "p95": 0.09658862636415647,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "desktop_web": {
        "dau_mau": {
          "median": 0.20233649367332363,
          "min": 0.18386873942712734,
          "max": 0.2239670995932544,
          "p5": 0.18480713230029688,
          "p95": 0.22090710787889464,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "sessions_per_dau": {
          "median": 2.363453990535257,
          "min": 2.1010279170548403,
          "max": 2.640965221387376,
          "p5": 2.1936147117084213,
          "p95": 2.604965565179788,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "mau_share": {
          "median": 0.06092720284199149,
          "min": 0.04474378701308593,
          "max": 0.07878956219767126,
          "p5": 0.04883703379565786,
          "p95": 0.07272584338509716,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "session_share": {
          "median": 0.058992360054485785,
          "min": 0.042994393748042876,
          "max": 0.07648873926057219,
          "p5": 0.04738043662906077,
          "p95": 0.07123992472701308,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "impression_share": {
          "median": 0.05890644593407558,
          "min": 0.043048491960020585,
          "max": 0.07621851273106028,
          "p5": 0.047406145141505235,
          "p95": 0.0710980309550616,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      }
    },
    "registered_changes": {
      "acceptance": false,
      "priors": false,
      "behaviour": false,
      "passive_exports": true
    }
  },
  "leave_one_out": {
    "id": "leave_one_out",
    "label": "Held out by leave-one-out",
    "kind": "Cross-validation of calibration targets",
    "included_in_research_target_counts": false,
    "registration": {
      "path": "research/25-leave-one-out.md",
      "sha256": "28344f57f8e962e7e7aeb8ef3d767270e75adffd69876493ea228ce0019b5eb3",
      "hash_scope": "UTF-8 registration prefix before the Results heading"
    },
    "note": "Cross-validation of four existing calibration targets, separate from the 103 research targets. Each fold selects new worlds using only the other three gates. Targets previously informed model development; priors, overlapping populations and shared seeds limit independence. This is modest selection cross-validation, not blind new-data validation, a forecast, or evidence of causal feature effects.",
    "counts": {
      "held out by leave-one-out: within tolerance": 3,
      "held out by leave-one-out: outside tolerance": 1,
      "held out by leave-one-out: unavailable": 0
    },
    "checks": [
      {
        "selector": "wau_mau",
        "check": "wau_mau",
        "group": "",
        "target": 0.62,
        "basis": "Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly; register inputs: measured",
        "population": "Global",
        "definition": "Population-weighted synthetic rolling-7-day active person-days / rolling-30-day active person-days over the measured window.",
        "tolerance": {
          "absolute": 0.04,
          "low": 0.58,
          "high": 0.66
        },
        "held_out": {
          "median": 0.6525786359802416,
          "min": 0.6103978928172032,
          "max": 0.7116197554561599,
          "p5": 0.6182994357097175,
          "p95": 0.6880047634317629,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 27,
          "share_within_tolerance": 0.5625,
          "median_error": 0.03257863598024158,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.03257863598024158
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        "baseline": {
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          "max": 0.6590734009272625,
          "p5": 0.6170608531520608,
          "p95": 0.6577383973822842,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 48,
          "share_within_tolerance": 1.0,
          "median_error": 0.019530972425281568,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.019530972425281568
        },
        "held_out_pass": true,
        "status": "held out by leave-one-out: within tolerance",
        "run": {
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          "worlds_tried": 190,
          "worlds_accepted_in_draws": 51,
          "acceptance_rate": 0.26842105263157895,
          "shortfall": 0,
          "common_worlds_with_baseline": 27
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      },
      {
        "selector": "growth:UCAN",
        "check": "growth",
        "group": "UCAN",
        "target": 0.04,
        "basis": "Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent",
        "population": "US and Canada",
        "definition": "Synthetic group-total last-day / first-day rolling-30-day MAU, annualized by 365 / (days - 1); not an average of regional rates.",
        "tolerance": {
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          "high": 0.09
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        "held_out": {
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          "max": 0.1827844024185219,
          "p5": 0.01378495279399036,
          "p95": 0.13763286327773006,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 36,
          "share_within_tolerance": 0.75,
          "median_error": 0.028658501077555222,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.028658501077555222
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        "baseline": {
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          "max": 0.08942245415441064,
          "p5": 0.01378495279399036,
          "p95": 0.08544785208518453,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 48,
          "share_within_tolerance": 1.0,
          "median_error": 0.0168177570390459,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.0168177570390459
        },
        "held_out_pass": true,
        "status": "held out by leave-one-out: within tolerance",
        "run": {
          "worlds": 48,
          "worlds_tried": 266,
          "worlds_accepted_in_draws": 48,
          "acceptance_rate": 0.18045112781954886,
          "shortfall": 0,
          "common_worlds_with_baseline": 36
        }
      },
      {
        "selector": "growth:global",
        "check": "growth",
        "group": "",
        "target": 0.11,
        "basis": "Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent",
        "population": "Global",
        "definition": "Synthetic group-total last-day / first-day rolling-30-day MAU, annualized by 365 / (days - 1); not an average of regional rates.",
        "tolerance": {
          "absolute": 0.07,
          "low": 0.039999999999999994,
          "high": 0.18
        },
        "held_out": {
          "median": 0.09405529896556486,
          "min": 0.015518471727698602,
          "max": 0.30698572540629154,
          "p5": 0.029185640286428505,
          "p95": 0.22157799003402,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 35,
          "share_within_tolerance": 0.7291666666666666,
          "median_error": -0.01594470103443514,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.01594470103443514
        },
        "baseline": {
          "median": 0.09405529896556486,
          "min": 0.04105737541092158,
          "max": 0.176683083124906,
          "p5": 0.0469332864218856,
          "p95": 0.15960596426887583,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Retained accepted worlds; first-pass population-weighted baseline acceptance check, before extra regional reconciliation. Assumption spread, not measurement uncertainty.",
          "within_tolerance": 48,
          "share_within_tolerance": 1.0,
          "median_error": -0.01594470103443514,
          "median_absolute_error": 0.01594470103443514
        },
        "held_out_pass": true,
        "status": "held out by leave-one-out: within tolerance",
        "run": {
          "worlds": 48,
          "worlds_tried": 244,
          "worlds_accepted_in_draws": 48,
          "acceptance_rate": 0.19672131147540983,
          "shortfall": 0,
          "common_worlds_with_baseline": 35
        }
      },
      {
        "selector": "click_outs_per_user_month",
        "check": "click_outs_per_user_month",
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      {
        "id": "S3",
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      "note": "Current regional MAU and ARPU anchors are imposed, not tested. Revenue is derived from them; using end-period rather than average MAU need not reproduce reported dollars exactly. Mixed historical/global components in the two rows are not matched.",
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        "Added after the run, without recomputing anything: the two shopping-trigger comparisons (88-saves-8 and 88-sessions-9) map the paper's most aggressive test group against figures that may belong to another group, and the published metric quoted from the abstract as \"Pin saves\" is reported in the paper's body as closeup repins. Their evidence label says abstract only; the paper's body was read later. Without these two the direction tally is 13 of 14 and size is 4 of 14."
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            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 0.98,
            "same growth": 0.64,
            "seasonal": 0.52
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "UCAN",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 3.77,
            "same growth": 0.89,
            "seasonal": 0.89
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 3.03,
            "same growth": 2.76,
            "seasonal": 0.98
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 7.01,
            "same growth": 2.17,
            "seasonal": 2.17
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 3.03,
            "same growth": 0.7,
            "seasonal": 1.03
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 13.16,
            "same growth": 2.48,
            "seasonal": 2.48
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 2.8,
            "same growth": 1.16,
            "seasonal": 0.88
          },
          {
            "metric": "MAU",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 9.69,
            "same growth": 1.67,
            "seasonal": 1.67
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "UCAN",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 17.24,
            "same growth": 15.14,
            "seasonal": 2.32
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "UCAN",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 10.71,
            "same growth": 6.43,
            "seasonal": 6.43
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 22.13,
            "same growth": 20.2,
            "seasonal": 4.37
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 20.28,
            "same growth": 10.3,
            "seasonal": 10.3
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 24.7,
            "same growth": 17.7,
            "seasonal": 4.42
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 27.59,
            "same growth": 12.94,
            "seasonal": 12.94
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 17.65,
            "same growth": 15.57,
            "seasonal": 1.55
          },
          {
            "metric": "Revenue",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 14.43,
            "same growth": 3.22,
            "seasonal": 3.22
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "UCAN",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 16.5,
            "same growth": 14.68,
            "seasonal": 2.74
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "UCAN",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 7.49,
            "same growth": 8.27,
            "seasonal": 8.27
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 21.26,
            "same growth": 20.84,
            "seasonal": 4.29
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "Europe",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 13.95,
            "same growth": 11.56,
            "seasonal": 11.56
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 20.71,
            "same growth": 14.42,
            "seasonal": 4.86
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "RoW",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 17.39,
            "same growth": 15.41,
            "seasonal": 15.41
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 1,
            "origins": 16,
            "last value": 15.66,
            "same growth": 15.26,
            "seasonal": 2.1
          },
          {
            "metric": "ARPU",
            "region": "Global",
            "quarters_ahead": 4,
            "origins": 13,
            "last value": 5.29,
            "same growth": 3.74,
            "seasonal": 3.74
          }
        ]
      },
      "replay": {
        "status": "failed_calibration",
        "failed_draws": 120,
        "result": "No historical draw passed the trailing-growth checks in 120 attempts. In the diagnostic worlds the no-event Q4 US count is 90.63M, against 86M reported. Quarter-end event paths are now exported, but this cannot identify Google's share of the fall."
      },
      "note": "Engine backtest: 1.61% median absolute error versus 1.09% for seasonal; engine loses. 2021 replay: no historical draw passed trailing growth in 120 attempts; diagnostic paths cannot identify Google's effect.",
      "paths": [
        "/backtest.json",
        "/engine-backtest.json",
        "/replay-2021.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "forecast_ledger",
      "label": "Frozen prediction ledger",
      "counts": {},
      "frozen_at": "2026-10-12",
      "prediction_rows": 40,
      "scored": 0,
      "note": "Predictions are frozen. No later reported quarter is available to score yet. The stored engine batch cannot supply quarter-end totals.",
      "prediction_sha256": "b597d363a55da17ad7f651001e9f0ed252fdfb5d30fe4b285202aae7caa0d80c",
      "paths": [
        "/ledger.json"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "additional_checks": {
    "season": {
      "status": "comparison only",
      "rows": 14,
      "peak_agrees": 4,
      "limits": "Reads the seasonal table, not realized session counts or a year-long trajectory. Candidate stays held out until human review. US search-share baskets are not global all-session mix. Common journey mid shares are assumed weights for comparing shape, not observed Trends journey market shares. Existing research/11 peak months were informed by Trends, so this is not independent source validation. No parameters tuned; no forecast.",
      "path": "/season-check.json"
    },
    "reactions": {
      "features": 15,
      "disagreements": 9,
      "basis": "model-assumed consistency only, neither method measures real people; same four personas, all 60 cells, forward/reverse option order; Spearman on bounded tilts with tied ranks. Correlation below 0.5 or undefined flagged as disagreement, a descriptive heuristic, not a calibrated test. Engine uses r1 only; mechanism variants inherit parent.",
      "path": "/reactions-check.json"
    }
  },
  "stale_claims": [
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "1.26 sessions per active day",
      "current": {
        "median": 2.3660429017183624,
        "min": 2.365080989765848,
        "max": 2.366683384367572,
        "p5": 2.365177180961099,
        "p95": 2.366619336102651,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 2.3660429017183624,
          "RoW": 2.365080989765848,
          "UCAN": 2.366683384367572
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "sessions per DAU (active person-day)",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 2.3624957386715524,
          "min": 2.094420756040316,
          "max": 2.635870333722929,
          "p5": 2.193884904945991,
          "p95": 2.608314616583922,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "unit": "sessions per DAU (active person-day)",
      "resolution": "The 48-world out/last-run.txt snapshot quoted in research/07 is older. the selected scorecard batch is identified below; unfitted numbers are regional means over worlds, not measured people. No research file was edited."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "98 Pins per session",
      "current": {
        "median": 91.52812036059036,
        "min": 91.52585934735247,
        "max": 91.55205681493544,
        "p5": 91.52608544867626,
        "p95": 91.54966316950093,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 91.55205681493544,
          "RoW": 91.52585934735247,
          "UCAN": 91.52812036059036
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "organic Pin impressions per session",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 88.32159339264088,
          "min": 57.34569453356733,
          "max": 132.5181835326372,
          "p5": 63.49406558986057,
          "p95": 129.4815844975065,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "unit": "organic Pin impressions per session",
      "resolution": "The 48-world out/last-run.txt snapshot quoted in research/07 is older. the selected scorecard batch is identified below; unfitted numbers are regional means over worlds, not measured people. No research file was edited."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "$19.94 UCAN / $3.28 Europe / $0.57 RoW per 1,000 ads",
      "current": {
        "median": 1.5564820587617305,
        "min": 0.2695428325041639,
        "max": 9.515784358024787,
        "p5": 0.39823675512992057,
        "p95": 8.71985412809848,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 1.5564820587617305,
          "RoW": 0.2695428325041639,
          "UCAN": 9.515784358024787
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "USD per 1,000 ad impressions"
      },
      "unit": "USD per 1,000 ad impressions",
      "resolution": "The 48-world out/last-run.txt snapshot quoted in research/07 is older. the selected scorecard batch is identified below; unfitted numbers are regional means over worlds, not measured people. No research file was edited."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:138",
      "old_claim": "About 2.6 outbound clicks per user per month (research/07:138; old arithmetic, not rerun)",
      "current": {
        "median": 2.18950834277974,
        "min": 2.1493007615550024,
        "max": 2.2040068956343704,
        "p5": 2.153321519677476,
        "p95": 2.2025570403489074,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 2.18950834277974,
          "RoW": 2.1493007615550024,
          "UCAN": 2.2040068956343704
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "click-outs/MAU/month",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 2.1058862364514006,
          "min": 1.8265831697373032,
          "max": 2.953471699111669,
          "p5": 1.838445292540598,
          "p95": 2.8226738892802357,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "unit": "click-outs per MAU per 30.4-day month",
      "resolution": "The 48-world out/last-run.txt snapshot quoted in research/07 is older. the selected scorecard batch is identified below; unfitted numbers are regional means over worlds, not measured people. No research file was edited."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "About 7.9 sessions per monthly user per month",
      "current": {
        "median": 14.982869383053739,
        "min": 12.503575582047876,
        "max": 18.367085703451828,
        "p5": 13.245254608737607,
        "p95": 16.89467570742364,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "unit": "sessions/MAU/month",
      "resolution": "Recomputed from paired raw baseline_totals, using a 30.4-day month. This supersedes arithmetic on the older batch; global raw ratios do not reconstruct region-reconciled levels and are not measurements of people."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "About 780 organic impressions per monthly user per month",
      "current": {
        "median": 1328.3253961549267,
        "min": 795.682291486472,
        "max": 2100.3636049641823,
        "p5": 961.7252588433165,
        "p95": 1893.4684079074032,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "unit": "organic impressions/MAU/month",
      "resolution": "Recomputed from paired raw baseline_totals, using a 30.4-day month. This supersedes arithmetic on the older batch; global raw ratios do not reconstruct region-reconciled levels and are not measurements of people."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:12",
      "old_claim": "About 140 ad impressions per monthly user per month",
      "current": {
        "median": 290.5726165658796,
        "min": 129.76490870921305,
        "max": 428.17314717726214,
        "p5": 214.68693589171573,
        "p95": 410.66143432070805,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "unit": "ad impressions/MAU/month",
      "resolution": "Recomputed from paired raw baseline_totals, using a 30.4-day month. This supersedes arithmetic on the older batch; global raw ratios do not reconstruct region-reconciled levels and are not measurements of people."
    },
    {
      "location": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:138,178",
      "old_claim": "No equally firm public save target; 1.5B weekly-save origin untraced",
      "resolution": "The dated 2023 Pinterest Newsroom article supplies the origin and the company page repeats it. The original measurement period is still unknown. This improves source traceability, not timeliness or validation; the conditional lower-bound diagnostic is excluded from independent counts."
    }
  ],
  "targets": [
    {
      "id": "U01",
      "metric": "WAU / MAU",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.62,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "definition": "WAU / MAU",
        "population": "Global, logged-in users; WAU = active at least once in 7 days, MAU = 30 days",
        "period": "2025-12-31"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
        "publisher": "Pinterest FY2025 10-K",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5a"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "calibration.wau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.6400159884249251,
        "scope": "Accepted-world mean from calibration export; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": 0.58,
        "high": 0.66,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "rationale": "Existing rejection-sampling acceptance tolerance, copied from the identified batch. The grounding round leaves these checks unchanged. Not a validation tolerance."
      },
      "status": "used for calibration",
      "observation_mapping": "Accepted worlds must satisfy this target (src/main.rs::baseline_until). Use weekly-active user-days / monthly-active user-days; the window average differs from a year-end snapshot.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "0.62",
          "62%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 51,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.62"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.62"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly; register inputs: measured\""
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 53,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Jev decision model, Saudi vs American personas (arXiv 2609.36399, 2026-09-28): reproduced 87% of the human Saudi–US difference in English but 62% in Arabic, with one dimension reversed. Without a persona it answered like its American personas **[V]**. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36399"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 251,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "  - Cross-cultural: 87% of the Saudi–US gap in English, 62% in Arabic (section 1.3)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 113,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| WAU/MAU | 62% at 31 Dec 2025, \"held steady\" year over year. Published once a year in the 10-K: 57% (2018), 57%, 56%, 58%, 61%, 61%, 62%, 62% (2025). Full table in section 2 | FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 call, 2026-02-12 | [10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm). The local files had only the call wording; the levels come from the gap research |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 128,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Working prior: WAU/MAU 62% (company), DAU/MAU about 25% (third party), and no public split by region or segment."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 153,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "5. Pinterest's own WAU/MAU ratio is disclosed yearly in the 10-K: **57% (2018) to 62% (2024, 2025)**. Pinterest has never disclosed DAU."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 413,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Women \"roughly two-thirds of our total user base\" | ~67% | FY2023, FY2024, FY2025 10-Ks | CR | e.g. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Accepted worlds must satisfy this target (src/main.rs::baseline_until). Use weekly-active user-days / monthly-active user-days; the window average differs from a year-end snapshot."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U02",
      "metric": "WAU / MAU, yearly series",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2018": 0.57,
          "2019": 0.57,
          "2020": 0.56,
          "2021": 0.58,
          "2022": 0.61,
          "2023": 0.61,
          "2024": 0.62,
          "2025": 0.62
        },
        "unit": "ratio",
        "definition": "WAU / MAU, yearly series",
        "population": "Global, year end",
        "period": "2018-2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm (and earlier 10-Ks listed in research/02 §2.5a)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest 10-K filings",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5a"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "calibration.wau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.6400159884249251,
        "scope": "Accepted-world mean from calibration export; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A current baseline mean and the latest 0.62 acceptance target cannot test an eight-year historical WAU series.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "0.57",
          "57%",
          "0.56",
          "56%",
          "0.58",
          "58%",
          "0.61",
          "61%",
          "0.62",
          "62%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 133,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.58"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.62"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2120,
            "terms": [
              "0.58"
            ],
            "excerpt": "internet_pop = 0.58"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.58"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.62"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.62"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly; register inputs: measured\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 1904,
            "terms": [
              "0.58"
            ],
            "excerpt": "internet_pop = 0.58"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3520,
            "terms": [
              "0.58"
            ],
            "excerpt": "female_share = 0.58"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 53,
            "terms": [
              "62%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Jev decision model, Saudi vs American personas (arXiv 2609.36399, 2026-09-28): reproduced 87% of the human Saudi–US difference in English but 62% in Arabic, with one dimension reversed. Without a persona it answered like its American personas **[V]**. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36399"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A current baseline mean and the latest 0.62 acceptance target cannot test an eight-year historical WAU series."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U03",
      "metric": "DAU / MAU (daily open rate), Android app",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.255,
        "unit": "ratio",
        "definition": "DAU / MAU (daily open rate), Android app",
        "population": "Android phones, worldwide excluding China, app users",
        "period": "2025-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report"
        ],
        "supplied": "Digital 2026 Global Overview deck slide 423; text copy https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report",
        "publisher": "Similarweb App Intelligence via DataReportal",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "RECON",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.dau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.21078777024046272,
        "min": 0.20754658259942657,
        "max": 0.21196596557315542,
        "p5": 0.2078707013635302,
        "p95": 0.21184814603988614,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 0.21078777024046272,
          "RoW": 0.20754658259942657,
          "UCAN": 0.21196596557315542
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "daily/monthly active ratio",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 0.20814492453477396,
          "min": 0.18696704226109495,
          "max": 0.22921478459757597,
          "p5": 0.19118070735549111,
          "p95": 0.22723633931314216,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "primary_app_dau_mau": {
          "median": 0.20971691859455943,
          "min": 0.18850220381286925,
          "max": 0.23021902410421957,
          "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
          "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report",
          "0.255",
          "25.5%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 9,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 126,
            "terms": [
              "25.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Similarweb's Android panel (August 2025, worldwide excluding China) gives DAU/MAU of 25.5%, 2.8 sessions and about 10 minutes per active user per day. The \"14 minutes per day\" figure has no traceable source."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 176,
            "terms": [
              "https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2023 | 310M | | Digital 2026 Global Overview deck, slide 590 (text copy: https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report) | RECON (series re-paired using the printed QoQ % changes; all 8 changes reconcile) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 524,
            "terms": [
              "25.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Daily open rate (average DAU / MAU) | **25.5%**, lowest of the 15 apps shown (LinkedIn 28.1%, Threads 28.3%, Reddit 40.7%, Instagram 65.4%, WhatsApp 85.1%) | Similarweb App Intelligence, Android phones, worldwide ex-China | Aug 2025 | Digital 2026 deck, slide 423 | RECON (15 labels to 15 descending values) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 540,
            "terms": [
              "25.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- DAU/MAU: Similarweb Android 25.5% (Aug 2025) and AppMagic 24-31% agree on a range of roughly 25-30% for the app. Applied to the company's 62% WAU/MAU, that implies DAU/WAU of about 40-48% (my arithmetic, mixing sources)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2162,
            "terms": [
              "25.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 13 | DAU/MAU | About 25% (Similarweb Android 25.5%, Aug 2025; AppMagic 24% to 31%) | low | third-party only; never company-reported |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 123,
            "terms": [
              "0.255"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Similarweb Android, Aug 2025 (in 02, where it is RECON: rebuilt from scrambled slide text) | 0.255 | 2.8 | 10 | 21 sessions, 77 min |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 142,
            "terms": [
              "25.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Off-topic or other | 5,307 | 25.5% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/23-reality-gap-sensitivity.md",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "0.255"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Pilot selected before any headline or bet runs, at 2026-10-19T07:18:25.029438+00:00. **S:** save_p x1.7, [0.15,0.25,0.38] -> [0.255,0.425,0.646]. **A:** the same saves change, ambient_rate x2 ([0.5,0.7,0.9] -> [1,1.4,1.8]), habit_shape x3 ([2.5,3.5,5] -> [7.5,10.5,15]). All other inputs are untouched. Ambient rate is a multiplier on habit, not an unconditional probability; values above one can saturate the existing daily-open gate. The shape change is a substantial assumed redistribution toward casual users, not a public estimate. S reached saves median 10.999 on 33 common accepted pilot worlds. A reached app ratio 0.263892 and saves 13.0465 "
          },
          {
            "path": "research/23-reality-gap-sensitivity.md",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.255"
            ],
            "excerpt": "S changes save_p x1.7: [0.15,0.25,0.38] to [0.255,0.425,0.646]. A keeps that change and scales ambient_rate x2.25: [0.5,0.7,0.9] to [1.125,1.575,2.025], and habit_shape x3: [2.5,3.5,5] to [7.5,10.5,15]. These are assumed stress coefficients. No other behavioral input, scenario effect, calendar or acceptance target changed. The shape change concentrates activity among heavier users; coefficients above one can saturate the product with habit at the daily-open gate."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U04",
      "metric": "DAU / MAU, iOS + Android app, monthly",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "low": 0.24,
          "high": 0.31
        },
        "unit": "ratio",
        "definition": "DAU / MAU, iOS + Android app, monthly",
        "population": "Mobile app, global, modelled devices",
        "period": "2025-05 to 2026-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
        "publisher": "AppMagic via Udonis blog",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "grounding.by_device.app.dau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.20971691859455943,
        "min": 0.18850220381286925,
        "max": 0.23021902410421957,
        "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
        "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": 0.24,
        "high": 0.31,
        "unit": "app DAU/MAU",
        "rationale": "Pre-registered supplied-target band, with inclusive endpoints and no post-result slack. The reopened secondary table implies roughly 0.242-0.322, so the supplied 0.24-0.31 is not its exact min-max or a measurement-error band. Bounds remain frozen; applied to the median only, conditional on unresolved population/window equivalence."
      },
      "registration": {
        "group": "held-out candidate",
        "timestamp": "2026-10-19T06:15:38Z",
        "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
        "new_calibration_targets": [],
        "held_out_candidates": [
          "U04"
        ],
        "strict_independent_targets": [],
        "limits": "U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison."
      },
      "conditional_comparison": {
        "verdict": "outside tolerance",
        "definition_gate_passed": false,
        "gate_reason": "U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison. The app-only export removes all-platform contamination, but does not establish a definition match.",
        "included_in_independent_count": false,
        "tolerance": {
          "low": 0.24,
          "high": 0.31,
          "unit": "app DAU/MAU",
          "rationale": "Pre-registered supplied-target band, with inclusive endpoints and no post-result slack. The reopened secondary table implies roughly 0.242-0.322, so the supplied 0.24-0.31 is not its exact min-max or a measurement-error band. Bounds remain frozen; applied to the median only, conditional on unresolved population/window equivalence."
        }
      },
      "source_verification": {
        "date": "2026-10-19",
        "status": "Secondary table reopened before new runs; underlying panel methodology unresolved",
        "urls": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
        ],
        "finding": "Udonis attributes May 2025-April 2026 app DAU/MAU counts to AppMagic. Its table ratios span about 0.242-0.322, not exactly the supplied 0.24-0.31 band; registered bounds are unchanged. Primary partner-input documentation does not establish output OS or account/device/window equivalence."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison. The app-only export removes all-platform contamination, but does not establish a definition match.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
          "0.24",
          "24%",
          "0.31",
          "31%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 75,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1099,
            "terms": [
              "0.31"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.31"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.24"
            ],
            "excerpt": "#   whose December is 8 times its average adds 0.24 to the journey's December."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 227,
            "terms": [
              "0.24"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Cloudflare Clef** (27B decision model) | $0.24 / free | **$360** | Single forward pass, no generation | **[V]** https://developers.cloudflare.com/workers-ai/models/clef/ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 125,
            "terms": [
              "24%",
              "31%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- The local files quote AppMagic's \"113M mobile DAU, 403M mobile MAU\". The gap research found the same page's monthly table shows 152M to 176M DAU and 493M to 703M MAU, which is above Pinterest's total reported MAU. Use AppMagic for ratios only (DAU/MAU 24% to 31%)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 316,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Top countries by app users (qualitative) | US, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest (AppMagic) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 481,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Lifetime app downloads, iOS + Android | 1.7B | to Apr 2026 | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 529,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app sessions per user per day | 2.52 | AppMagic, iOS + Android, global | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 531,
            "terms": [
              "24%",
              "31%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app DAU / MAU, monthly | Apr 2026: 152M / 493M (31%); Jan 2026: 158M / 621M (25%); Dec 2025: 170M / 619M (27%); Jul 2025: 170M / 703M (24%); May 2025: 169M / 609M (28%) | AppMagic model | May 2025-Apr 2026 | same | READ (ratios are mine) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 540,
            "terms": [
              "31%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- DAU/MAU: Similarweb Android 25.5% (Aug 2025) and AppMagic 24-31% agree on a range of roughly 25-30% for the app. Applied to the company's 62% WAU/MAU, that implies DAU/WAU of about 40-48% (my arithmetic, mixing sources)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 675,
            "terms": [
              "24%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +54% | -24% | [Q3 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 677,
            "terms": [
              "24%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2026 | +24% | -5% | [Q1 2026 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 800,
            "terms": [
              "31%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| FY2023 | +31% | -17% | SEC: 10-K FY2023 | |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison. The app-only export removes all-platform contamination, but does not establish a definition match."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U05",
      "metric": "Share of Android users opening the app daily; opens and time per month",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "daily_open_share": 0.273,
          "opens_per_month": 48,
          "time_per_month_min": 105
        },
        "unit": "mixed",
        "definition": "Share of Android users opening the app daily; opens and time per month",
        "population": "Android app users, global",
        "period": "2024"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.searchenginejournal.com/pinterest-facts/370926/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.searchenginejournal.com/pinterest-facts/370926/",
        "publisher": "data.ai via DataReportal, quoted by Search Engine Journal",
        "origin": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md §5"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.dau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.21078777024046272,
        "min": 0.20754658259942657,
        "max": 0.21196596557315542,
        "p5": 0.2078707013635302,
        "p95": 0.21184814603988614,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 0.21078777024046272,
          "RoW": 0.20754658259942657,
          "UCAN": 0.21196596557315542
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "daily/monthly active ratio",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 0.20814492453477396,
          "min": 0.18696704226109495,
          "max": 0.22921478459757597,
          "p5": 0.19118070735549111,
          "p95": 0.22723633931314216,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "primary_app_dau_mau": {
          "median": 0.20971691859455943,
          "min": 0.18850220381286925,
          "max": 0.23021902410421957,
          "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
          "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.searchenginejournal.com/pinterest-facts/370926/",
          "0.273",
          "27.3%",
          "105"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 32,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1279,
            "terms": [
              "0.273"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.273"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | 619 | +12% | 105 | 158 | 356 | 17% | [Q4 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000019/q4-25xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1498,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 105 | 2024-04 | OmniSearchSage in search ads | gCTR: product ads retrieval +5.27%; ads search engagement model +2.96%; ads search relevance model +1.55%; \"4.95% increase in Ads relevance\" | A/B | search ads | AX/2404.16260 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/04-population-data-and-inference.md",
            "line": 142,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Reach against regional MAU at about the same date (October 2025 reach, Q4 2025 MAU of 105 / 158 / 356) [est from file 02]:"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 126,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.searchenginejournal.com/pinterest-facts/370926/",
              "0.273",
              "27.3%",
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| data.ai Android via DataReportal, global, 2024: 27.3% open daily, about 48 opens and 1h45m a month. TP, READ on a secondary page | 0.273 | 5.9 | 12.8 | 48 sessions, 105 min; [Search Engine Journal, 2024-07](https://www.searchenginejournal.com/pinterest-facts/370926/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 127,
            "terms": [
              "0.273"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Same series, US: 32.5 sessions and 1h26m a month. TP, READ on a secondary page | n/a | about 4.0 if 0.273 applies | about 10.5 | 32.5 sessions, 86 min; [The Global Statistics, 2025-05](https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 136,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Sessions per active day: the engine is not supported by any source.** The lowest outside figure is twice the engine's. Sources split by definition: 2.5 to 2.8 (sessions of about 3.5 min) and 4 to 6 (app opens of about 2.2 min). Minutes agree far better than sessions: 77 to 105 per monthly user per month."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 140,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Recommended.** Treat as exploratory fitted targets: DAU/MAU 0.24 +/- 0.03 and 75 to 105 minutes per monthly user per month. Minutes are steadier across panels than session counts. A sessions target (about 2.6 a day) needs the engine's session to be defined to match a panel's."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 230,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Activity per user (engine: 1.26 sessions per active day, about 8 a month) | not fitted | exploratory target 75-105 minutes per user per month | sessions per active day 2.6 +/- 0.6 | medium for direction, low for level | Similarweb, AppMagic, data.ai |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 27,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| `https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/?terms=<term>&country=US&days=730&end_date=2026-10-01&normalize_against_group=false` | 200, JSON. 105 weekly points per term, 2024-10-03 to 2026-10-01, fields `count` and `normalizedCount` (0 to 100) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/17-what-customers-ask-for.md",
            "line": 206,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **How often:** 105 of 945 member forum topics in 2026 are about falling impressions or traffic, with 24 in August; 194 r/Pinterest posts in 2026 (2.7%); a food-blog trade site shows one large blog's Pinterest share of visits at 6.33% in March 2024 and 3.99% in 2026."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/17-what-customers-ask-for.md",
            "line": 637,
            "terms": [
              "105"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Reach, impressions or traffic drop; pins not in search | 105 | 11.1% | 10,668 |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U06",
      "metric": "Sessions per active user per day, Android",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 2.8,
        "unit": "sessions/day",
        "definition": "Sessions per active user per day, Android",
        "population": "Android phones, worldwide excluding China",
        "period": "2025-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Digital 2026 Global Overview deck slide 424",
        "publisher": "Similarweb App Intelligence via DataReportal",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "RECON",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.sessions_per_dau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 2.3660429017183624,
        "min": 2.365080989765848,
        "max": 2.366683384367572,
        "p5": 2.365177180961099,
        "p95": 2.366619336102651,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 2.3660429017183624,
          "RoW": 2.365080989765848,
          "UCAN": 2.366683384367572
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "sessions per DAU (active person-day)",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 2.3624957386715524,
          "min": 2.094420756040316,
          "max": 2.635870333722929,
          "p5": 2.193884904945991,
          "p95": 2.608314616583922,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observable": {
        "median": 2.3624319924482364,
        "min": 2.0937139207011524,
        "max": 2.635306421567296,
        "p5": 2.193607466182105,
        "p95": 2.6093372497279477,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "2.8"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 20,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Squoosh, \"The Judge Knows When It Knows\" (arXiv 2608.07517, 2026) https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07517 | 330 real web conversion A/B tests, multimodal LLM judging screenshots | \"Mostly no.\" Cohen's κ = 0.141 [0.034, 0.248]; on statistically significant tests κ = 0.108 with a CI spanning zero. A 2.8× more expensive model was no better. Judges agree with each other at κ = 0.74–0.88 but with outcomes at about 0.2: \"reproducibility must never be mistaken for validity.\" 44% of the \"ground-truth\" labels came from non-significant tests **[V]**. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 126,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Similarweb's Android panel (August 2025, worldwide excluding China) gives DAU/MAU of 25.5%, 2.8 sessions and about 10 minutes per active user per day. The \"14 minutes per day\" figure has no traceable source."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 526,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sessions per active user per day | **2.8** (Instagram 12.3, TikTok 10.0, Reddit 4.7, LinkedIn 3.2, Threads 1.9) | same | Aug 2025 | deck slide 424 | RECON |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 527,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Average session duration | **3m 28s** (TikTok 9m42, Facebook 7m17, Instagram 5m56) | same | Aug 2025 | deck slide 425 | RECON; pairing chosen so that minutes/day divided by sessions/day matches for 10 apps (Pinterest 10 / 2.8 = 3.6 min) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 541,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Session length: Similarweb Android 3m28s vs AppMagic 4.6 min vs web 7-14 min. Sessions per day agree (2.8 vs 2.52). Minutes per day: 10 (Similarweb) vs about 11.6 (AppMagic 2.52 x 4.6)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1413,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 40 | 2024-04 | OmniSearchSage embeddings in organic search | Search Fulfilment Rate / Relevance: retrieval +4.1% / +0.5%; L1 scoring +0.5% / +0.0%; L2 scoring and relevance model +2.8% / +3.0% | A/B | n/s | AX/2404.16260 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1585,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Search fulfillment rate.** Paper A/B lifts (relative %): 0.34, 0.5, >1.5, 2.24, 2.8, 3.7, 4.1, 6.5 (rows 40, 41, 42, 43, 46). Median about 2.5%, range 0.34% to 6.5%; the 6.5% is against a BM25 baseline. Earnings-call statements: about 70 bp and about 180 bp for single launches, 230 bp cumulative for H1 2025 (rows 45, 47, 48)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1927,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Early monetization lagged plan**: 2015 revenue about $100M versus $169M projected, and $2.8B projected for 2018 (READ, TechCrunch 2016-10-04); Pinterest actually reached $2.8B in 2022 (\"For the full year we generated revenue of $2.8 billion\", Q4 2022 call, SNIPPET). Digiday Nov 2016: \"After a slow entry into advertising\", Pinterest \"faces uphill battle with ad buyers\" (SNIPPET, https://digiday.com/media/pinterest-faces-uphill-battle-moving-media-buying-needle/). 2019 ex-employee account of a slow, consensus-driven culture (SNIPPET, CNBC 2019-04-10, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/10/pinterest-overly-nice-culture-has-hurt-growth-ex-employees-"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2163,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 14 | Sessions per active user per day; minutes per day | 2.5 to 2.8 sessions; about 10 minutes; 3.5 to 4.6 minutes per session | low | Similarweb Android Aug 2025, AppMagic |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 378,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F16 | ucan_ad_revenue_per_user_per_month_usd | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | DV from UCAN quarterly ARPU of $8.30 in Q2 2026 (CR), with seasonal range |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U07",
      "metric": "Sessions per user per day, app",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 2.52,
        "unit": "sessions/day",
        "definition": "Sessions per user per day, app",
        "population": "iOS + Android, global",
        "period": "to 2026-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
        "publisher": "AppMagic via Udonis blog",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.sessions_per_dau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 2.3660429017183624,
        "min": 2.365080989765848,
        "max": 2.366683384367572,
        "p5": 2.365177180961099,
        "p95": 2.366619336102651,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 2.3660429017183624,
          "RoW": 2.365080989765848,
          "UCAN": 2.366683384367572
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "sessions per DAU (active person-day)",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 2.3624957386715524,
          "min": 2.094420756040316,
          "max": 2.635870333722929,
          "p5": 2.193884904945991,
          "p95": 2.608314616583922,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observable": {
        "median": 2.3624319924482364,
        "min": 2.0937139207011524,
        "max": 2.635306421567296,
        "p5": 2.193607466182105,
        "p95": 2.6093372497279477,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
          "2.52"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 8,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 316,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Top countries by app users (qualitative) | US, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest (AppMagic) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 481,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Lifetime app downloads, iOS + Android | 1.7B | to Apr 2026 | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 529,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
              "2.52"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app sessions per user per day | 2.52 | AppMagic, iOS + Android, global | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 541,
            "terms": [
              "2.52"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Session length: Similarweb Android 3m28s vs AppMagic 4.6 min vs web 7-14 min. Sessions per day agree (2.8 vs 2.52). Minutes per day: 10 (Similarweb) vs about 11.6 (AppMagic 2.52 x 4.6)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1137,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 | 70.5M / 89.6M / 123M / 99.5M / 128M | Worldwide, iOS plus Android, annual | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest (updated May 26 2026) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "2.52"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| AppMagic, to Apr 2026 (in 02) | 0.24 to 0.31 | 2.52 | 11.6 | about 20 sessions |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/10-what-to-measure-first.md",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "2.52"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| The same, with the bundle (mechanism) | +8.00% [+2.52, +17.57] | −2.10% [−3.15, −1.33] | −2.85% [−4.14, −1.74] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 51,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest: table of DAU and MAU May 2025-April 2026; attributed to AppMagic, app only. This is a secondary transcription, not verified AppMagic underlying observations."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U08",
      "metric": "Minutes per daily active user per day, Android app",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 10,
        "unit": "minutes/day",
        "definition": "Minutes per daily active user per day, Android app",
        "population": "Android app DAUs, global",
        "period": "2025-08 and 2026-02"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/infographics/2026-08-19-how-much-time-people-spend-on-social-media-apps"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/infographics/2026-08-19-how-much-time-people-spend-on-social-media-apps",
        "publisher": "DataReportal Digital 2026 mid-year update (Similarweb data), reported by The Star",
        "origin": "new (Feb 2026 reading); Aug 2025 reading in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "The engine has visits and steps but no clock time; no supported conversion to minutes per DAU.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/infographics/2026-08-19-how-much-time-people-spend-on-social-media-apps"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The engine has visits and steps but no clock time; no supported conversion to minutes per DAU."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U09",
      "metric": "Average app session length",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "similarweb_android": "3m28s",
          "appmagic": "4.6 min"
        },
        "unit": "minutes",
        "definition": "Average app session length",
        "population": "App sessions, global",
        "period": "2025-08; to 2026-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
        ],
        "supplied": "Digital 2026 deck slide 425; https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
        "publisher": "Similarweb; AppMagic",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "RECON / READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No simulated session duration; assigning seconds to a step would invent a measurement. Reconstructed component unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
          "4.6"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 23,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 242,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J05.groups]]  # vol 0.05. April is 4.6 times its average."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Pew Research Center (2026-09-30).** Digital twins of real American Trends Panel members, built with Claude Opus 4.6 plus extended profile information, answering three 2026 survey waves. Average absolute error was **12.4 percentage points** overall (11.3 / 14.7 / 11.2 by wave), 16.1 for Republicans and 15.1 for Black adults **[V]**. Headline: \"Synthetic surveys do a poor job of estimating the public mood and are especially error-prone for some subgroups.\" https://www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/2026/09/30/can-ai-stand-in-for-human-survey-takers-not-really/ and data table https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/ai-generated-survey-results-consisten"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 223,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Groq** gpt-oss-20b | $0.075 / $0.30; about 1,000 tok/s | **about $158** | At the developer-plan limit of 250K tokens/min this is **about 4.6 days**; needs a higher tier or batch | **[V]** https://console.groq.com/docs/models. Llama 3.1 8B and 3.3 70B are now \"Contact Sales\". |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 116,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile DAU 113M, mobile MAU 403M, average session 4.6 min | [T] AppMagic via Udonis blog, data to April 2026. Low grade | 2026 | local 01-uptake.md |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 281,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Hungary | 33.5 | Germany | 29.2 | | | China | 4.6 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 316,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Top countries by app users (qualitative) | US, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest (AppMagic) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 481,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Lifetime app downloads, iOS + Android | 1.7B | to Apr 2026 | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 529,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app sessions per user per day | 2.52 | AppMagic, iOS + Android, global | to Apr 2026 | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 530,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app session length | 4.6 min | AppMagic | to Apr 2026 | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 541,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Session length: Similarweb Android 3m28s vs AppMagic 4.6 min vs web 7-14 min. Sessions per day agree (2.8 vs 2.52). Minutes per day: 10 (Similarweb) vs about 11.6 (AppMagic 2.52 x 4.6)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1137,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 | 70.5M / 89.6M / 123M / 99.5M / 128M | Worldwide, iOS plus Android, annual | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest (updated May 26 2026) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1190,
            "terms": [
              "4.6"
            ],
            "excerpt": "#### 4.6 Logged-out to logged-in conversion"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No simulated session duration; assigning seconds to a step would invent a measurement. Reconstructed component unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U10",
      "metric": "Monthly sessions and minutes per US Android user",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "sessions_per_month": 32.5,
          "minutes_per_month": 86
        },
        "unit": "per user per month",
        "definition": "Monthly sessions and minutes per US Android user",
        "population": "US Android app users",
        "period": "2024 (published 2025-05)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/",
        "publisher": "data.ai series via a secondary stats site",
        "origin": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md §5"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.sessions / baseline_totals.mau * 30.4",
      "engine": {
        "median": 14.982869383053739,
        "min": 12.503575582047876,
        "max": 18.367085703451828,
        "p5": 13.245254608737607,
        "p95": 16.89467570742364,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "primary_app_dau_mau": {
          "median": 0.20971691859455943,
          "min": 0.18850220381286925,
          "max": 0.23021902410421957,
          "p5": 0.19240480453983447,
          "p95": 0.22831643203611987,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/",
          "32.5"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 127,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/",
              "32.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Same series, US: 32.5 sessions and 1h26m a month. TP, READ on a secondary page | n/a | about 4.0 if 0.273 applies | about 10.5 | 32.5 sessions, 86 min; [The Global Statistics, 2025-05](https://www.theglobalstatistics.com/us-pinterest-users-statistics/) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No Android/iOS field, panel-unit equivalence, monthly-open definition or clock-time model exists; app-only counts cannot establish this mixed row's definition match."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U11",
      "metric": "pinterest.com monthly web visits",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "visits": 1590000000.0,
          "mom_change": 0.041,
          "yoy_change": 0.1451,
          "global_rank": 20
        },
        "unit": "visits/month",
        "definition": "pinterest.com monthly web visits",
        "population": "Desktop + mobile web, worldwide, includes logged-out visits",
        "period": "2026-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites/",
        "publisher": "Similarweb",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.sessions",
      "engine": {
        "median": 46877.757088589,
        "min": 32150.89740906554,
        "max": 61109.26811760092,
        "p5": 36500.33440514503,
        "p95": 52385.41306181633,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "mobile_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.08681935256927617,
          "min": 0.05945940315397268,
          "max": 0.10434072348313256,
          "p5": 0.07436915763965364,
          "p95": 0.09659554570820264,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "desktop_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.058992360054485785,
          "min": 0.042994393748042876,
          "max": 0.07648873926057219,
          "p5": 0.04738043662906077,
          "p95": 0.07123992472701308,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites/",
          "1.59e+09",
          "1.59 billion",
          "1.59B",
          "1590 million",
          "1590M",
          "0.041",
          "4.1%",
          "0.1451",
          "14.51%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 17,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 540,
            "terms": [
              "0.1451"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1451, 0.1315, 0.1735, 0.1765, 0.1318, 0.2416]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3493,
            "terms": [
              "0.041"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.041"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 589,
            "terms": [
              "0.1451"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1451, 0.1315, 0.1735, 0.1765, 0.1318, 0.2416]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 181,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Jan 2025 | 340M | 4.1% of world population; 5.3% of population 13+; 6.5% of 13+ excluding China; 5.2% of adults 18+; 6.1% of internet users; +32.5M (+10.6%) YoY | https://datareportal.com/essential-pinterest-stats | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1413,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 40 | 2024-04 | OmniSearchSage embeddings in organic search | Search Fulfilment Rate / Relevance: retrieval +4.1% / +0.5%; L1 scoring +0.5% / +0.0%; L2 scoring and relevance model +2.8% / +3.0% | A/B | n/s | AX/2404.16260 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1484,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 91 | 2019 | Act-alike audience expansion with user embeddings (KDD 2019) | Online CTR vs classifier model: Embedding Only -4.1%; Blended +2.1% | A/B | act-alike ads | https://www.pinterestcareers.com/media/phkg2uau/transferlearning-kdd2019.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/15-reality-tests.md",
            "line": 38,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Search retrieval | +4.1% | session_success_rate: +9.5590%, range +5.7630% to +16.0685% | match / inside | [2024-04](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.16260); READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/16-slice-1-spec.md",
            "line": 122,
            "terms": [
              "0.041"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F07 | +0.073 [-0.052, +0.291] | +0.041 [-0.074, +0.398] | +0.042 [-0.065, +0.358] | -0.010 [-0.170, +0.266] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/16-slice-1-spec.md",
            "line": 131,
            "terms": [
              "0.041"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F02 | +0.005 [-0.029, +0.070] | +0.007 [-0.041, +0.040] | +0.007 [-0.041, +0.040] | -0.010 [-0.049, +0.048] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/17-what-customers-ask-for.md",
            "line": 917,
            "terms": [
              "0.041"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Visits | +0.00 | -0.36 to +0.40 | 0.041; median too small to tell |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 162,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Other | 849 | 4.1% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 230,
            "terms": [
              "4.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Other | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U12",
      "metric": "pinterest.com pages per visit, visit duration, bounce rate",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "pages_per_visit": 7.5,
          "visit_duration": "13:44",
          "bounce_rate": 0.3988
        },
        "unit": "mixed",
        "definition": "pinterest.com pages per visit, visit duration, bounce rate",
        "population": "All-device web visits, worldwide",
        "period": "2026-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/",
        "publisher": "Semrush",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.1f"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.pins_per_session",
      "engine": {
        "median": 91.52812036059036,
        "min": 91.52585934735247,
        "max": 91.55205681493544,
        "p5": 91.52608544867626,
        "p95": 91.54966316950093,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 91.55205681493544,
          "RoW": 91.52585934735247,
          "UCAN": 91.52812036059036
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "organic Pin impressions per session",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 88.32159339264088,
          "min": 57.34569453356733,
          "max": 132.5181835326372,
          "p5": 63.49406558986057,
          "p95": 129.4815844975065,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "mobile_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.08681935256927617,
          "min": 0.05945940315397268,
          "max": 0.10434072348313256,
          "p5": 0.07436915763965364,
          "p95": 0.09659554570820264,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "desktop_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.058992360054485785,
          "min": 0.042994393748042876,
          "max": 0.07648873926057219,
          "p5": 0.04738043662906077,
          "p95": 0.07123992472701308,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/",
          "7.5",
          "0.3988",
          "39.88%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 23,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 207,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 13 | Japan | 9.19 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 63.6 | 29.8 | +1.4 | 6.4 | /digital-2026-japan |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 209,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 15 | Australia | 5.68 | 21.0 | 24.8 | 21.6 | 72.3 | 20.4 | +7.5 | 28.6 | /digital-2026-australia |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 291,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Visits, all devices | 1.5B (Aug 1.32B, Jul 1.31B) | Sep 2026 | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 292,
            "terms": [
              "7.5",
              "39.88%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Pages/visit; avg visit duration; bounce | 7.5; 13:44; 39.88% | Sep 2026 | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 476,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| pinterest.com web visits: US desktop / mobile-web | 52.6% / 47.4% | Semrush, Sep 2026 page | TP | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 533,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/",
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Web: average visit duration, pages/visit | 13:44; 7.5 | Semrush, pinterest.com all devices | Sep 2026 | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1112,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2026 | 72.98% | google.com 20.8% | not given | not given | 1.5B (Jul 1.31B, Aug 1.32B) | TP (Semrush) | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1379,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 11 | 2022-05 | PinnerFormer replaces PinnerSage as a feature in home feed ranking | Time Spent +1%; DAU +0.4%; WAU +0.12%; Homefeed Repins +7.5%; Homefeed Clickthroughs +1%; Homefeed Close-ups +6% | A/B | n/s | AX/2205.04507 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1381,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 13 | 2022-09 | End-to-end sequence ranking (RecSys 2022 paper) | PinnerFormer: organic repin +7.5%, ads CTR +9.1%. PinnerFormer + real-time model: +12.5%, +14.0% (row mapping confirmed by the paper's text; the two columns come from two different tests: home feed organic ranking and Related Pins ads ranking) | A/B | n/s | https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2209.08435 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1522,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 129 | 2026-06-17 | Performance+ creative selection | +7.5% click volume | against the previous single-variant model | n/s | per brief; figure found in the Pinterest newsroom announcement of 2026-06-17, https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/cannes-2026/ | GIVEN in the brief; later found in the newsroom announcement |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1581,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Single-launch size, surface-level saves or repins on the surface that changed (home feed).** Rows 7, 8, 10, 11, 15, 25, 26, 28, 20, 30: 0.91, 1.09, 1.22, 1.5, 2.5, 2.6, 4, 6.35, 7.5, 11.0. Median 2.55%, range 0.91% to 11.0%. The 6% to 11% values are all user-sequence model step changes (PinnerFormer, TransAct, TransAct V2); everything else is 0.9% to 4%."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1591,
            "terms": [
              "7.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Time spent and active users respond far less than saves.** Time spent: +2.0% (TransAct), +1.41% (TransAct V2), +1% (PinnerFormer), +0.45% (MESH), +0.38% (PinRec related). DAU: +0.4% (PinnerFormer), +0.05% (Pin-SCALE). WAU: +0.12% (PinnerFormer), +0.09% (UniPinRec notifications). In the three sequence-model launches, time-spent lift was 13% to 22% of the repin lift (1/7.5, 2.0/11.0, 1.41/6.35)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U13",
      "metric": "US monthly visits to pinterest.com",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "visits": 359900000.0,
          "yoy_change": 0.4146
        },
        "unit": "visits/month",
        "definition": "US monthly visits to pinterest.com",
        "population": "US web visits",
        "period": "2026-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites-usa/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites-usa/",
        "publisher": "Similarweb",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.1f"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.sessions",
      "engine": {
        "median": 46877.757088589,
        "min": 32150.89740906554,
        "max": 61109.26811760092,
        "p5": 36500.33440514503,
        "p95": 52385.41306181633,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observables": {
        "mobile_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.08681935256927617,
          "min": 0.05945940315397268,
          "max": 0.10434072348313256,
          "p5": 0.07436915763965364,
          "p95": 0.09659554570820264,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        },
        "desktop_web_session_share": {
          "median": 0.058992360054485785,
          "min": 0.042994393748042876,
          "max": 0.07648873926057219,
          "p5": 0.04738043662906077,
          "p95": 0.07123992472701308,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites-usa/",
          "3.599e+08",
          "359.9 million",
          "359.9M",
          "0.4146",
          "41.46%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 3,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2268,
            "terms": [
              "0.4146"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.148, 0.4146, 0.209, 0.1074, 0.0573, 0.0637]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 2029,
            "terms": [
              "0.4146"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.148, 0.4146, 0.209, 0.1074, 0.0573, 0.0637]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 301,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites-usa/",
              "359.9M",
              "41.46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Similarweb, US visits to pinterest.com | 359.9M, +6.32% MoM, +41.46% YoY, rank 21 in US | Aug 2026 | https://www.similarweb.com/blog/research/market-research/most-visited-websites-usa/ | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Fixed primary-device activity and visit counts are now exported as diagnostics. No logged-out web/bot population, actual cross-device visit classification, website page-view/bounce/time definition, or matching historical web series exists. Synthetic primary-web visits are not measured website visits."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U14",
      "metric": "Share of reported users arriving directly through the mobile app; share logged in",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "via_app": 0.85,
          "logged_in": 1.0
        },
        "unit": "share of MAU",
        "definition": "Share of reported users arriving directly through the mobile app; share logged in",
        "population": "Global reported MAU",
        "period": "2026-08-04 (Q2 2026 call)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2026 earnings call",
        "origin": "new read of a figure also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "additional_observable": {
        "median": 0.8474192074853406,
        "min": 0.8243448272300151,
        "max": 0.8923269860337694,
        "p5": 0.8291623910358571,
        "p95": 0.8681328438432148,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "0.85",
          "85%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 135,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 57,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.85, 0.92, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"reapply\", op = \"set\", value = [0.7, 0.85, 0.95] }]   # assumed: typing a sentence beats re-tapping filters"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"finish_p\", op = \"set\", value = [0.3, 0.6, 0.85] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.70, 0.85, 0.98]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 116,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.65, 0.85, 0.98]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 121,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"delivery_gain\", op = \"set\", value = [0.04, 0.15, 0.30] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.60, 0.85, 0.98] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 309,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.7, 0.85, 0.98]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "This figure already informed the device or repeat-session priors. The grounding export now adds fixed primary-app MAU share or sessions per active day, but does not resolve exclusive app-user populations or panel session gaps. U04 is only a held-out candidate: no recorded direct fit, but session priors use the same panel. Panel units, OS coverage, device overlap, monthly windows and historical transport remain unresolved. P17 is an old-volume persistence diagnostic, never a fit or independent comparison."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U15",
      "metric": "Mobile app users' share of impressions and revenue",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "over 80%",
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Mobile app users' share of impressions and revenue",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2023-02-06 (Q4 2022 call)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q4 2022 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "grounding.by_device.app.impression_share",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.8523309549765179,
        "min": 0.8294500837583708,
        "max": 0.893317063322343,
        "p5": 0.8365113864348315,
        "p95": 0.8721554598064655,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A related fixed-primary-app organic-impression share is now exported, so this row moves from not exported to not comparable. It does not match the 2022 app-users' cross-device impression/revenue share, total-versus-organic impression scope, or dated historical trajectory. No independent verdict or fit is permitted.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf",
          "80%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 51,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 33,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Park et al., \"Generative Agent Simulations of 1,000 People\" (arXiv 2411.10109, 2024-11-15; v3 retitled \"LLM Agents Grounded in Self-Reports Enable General-Purpose Simulation of Individuals\") https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.10109 | 1,052 US adults, each given a 2-hour qualitative interview; agent answers compared with the person's own answers | Agents replicated General Social Survey answers \"85% as accurately as the individuals replicated their own answers two weeks later\" **[V]** (Stanford HAI brief: https://hai.stanford.edu/assets/files/hai-policy-brief-simulating-human-behavior-with-ai-agents.pdf). Big Five ≈ 80% normalised and economic games"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **KITE** (arXiv 2609.27535, 2026-09-23) https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27535 | 1M agents, 20 steps in 0.9 s on a laptop **[V]** | A decision model (Jev) queried **once per unique state**; population executed from a table with common random numbers; an expensive model reserved for sparse \"anchors\" | Human experiments: anchors on 1.7% of states cut effect error 41%; coverage 93%/96% at nominal 80%/90% once human–model discrepancy is propagated, versus 29%/36% from sampling uncertainty alone **[V]** | A few thousand kernel calls. Single author, three weeks old, not peer reviewed. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 153,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "6. **Propagate model discrepancy.** KITE's coverage result (29% → 93% at nominal 80% once human–model discrepancy is included) says intervals built from Monte Carlo noise alone will be wildly overconfident **[V]**."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 221,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Haiku 5.5 + prompt cache (80% of input as a shared prefix) | — | about $117 standard; about $58 if batch and cache discounts stack | — | **Unverified:** whether a 1.2K-token prefix meets Haiku 5.5's minimum cacheable length (Haiku 4.5's minimum was 4,096 tokens **[M]**), and whether the discounts stack for 5.5 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 265,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "8. **Report ranges that include model discrepancy, and label outputs as scenarios.** Intervals from Monte Carlo noise alone had 29% coverage at nominal 80% in KITE. Estimate a discrepancy term from backtests and carry it into every output. For non-US, non-English markets widen it further and anchor to regional analogues."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 289,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "8. **Twin-2K-500 and Park et al. sub-results** marked [M] (72% vs 82% test–retest; Big Five 80%; economic games 66%; Hewitt r ≈ 0.85) should be re-checked against the papers before being quoted."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 453,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Weekly Pinners who feel inspired by the shopping experience | 80% | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 470,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf",
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app users' share of impressions and revenue | \"over 80%\" | Q4 2022 call (6 Feb 2023) | CR | https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 696,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Performance+ adopters | Lower-funnel spend grew at nearly twice the rate of non-adopters. Outperforms traditional campaigns in 80% of A/B tests | Q1 2026; Q1 2025 | calls |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 697,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| International share of monetization | \"more than 80% of our users, still roughly 20% of our monetization\" | 2026-09-09 | [Communacopia transcript](https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09). Reported non-UCAN revenue share was 25% in Q2 2026, so \"roughly 20%\" is loose |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 843,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2024 | Largest advertisers | lower-funnel objectives \"now account for over 80% of their spend with us\" for some | CALL:2024Q3 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 853,
            "terms": [
              "80%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2023 / Q4 2023 / Q1 2024 | Direct links coverage of lower-funnel revenue | ~60% / 80% / 97% | CALL:2023Q3; CALL:2023Q4; CALL:2024Q1 |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A related fixed-primary-app organic-impression share is now exported, so this row moves from not exported to not comparable. It does not match the 2022 app-users' cross-device impression/revenue share, total-versus-organic impression scope, or dated historical trajectory. No independent verdict or fit is permitted."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U16",
      "metric": "App engagement growth, year over year",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "global_dau": 0.16,
          "us_dau": 0.11,
          "minutes_per_day": 0.11,
          "sessions_per_day": 0.09
        },
        "unit": "YoY change",
        "definition": "App engagement growth, year over year",
        "population": "Pinterest app, Sensor Tower panel",
        "period": "Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/",
        "publisher": "Sensor Tower, reported by PPC Land",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.2"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No matching app-specific previous-year DAU/time/session series in the stored batch.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/",
          "0.16",
          "16%",
          "0.11",
          "11%",
          "0.09"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 205,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.16",
              "0.09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 115,
            "terms": [
              "0.11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.11"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 162,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1241, 0.1158, 0.16, 0.1708, 0.1321, 0.2972]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 73,
            "terms": [
              "0.11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J01.groups]]  # vol 0.11, trimmed to pay for summer."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 75,
            "terms": [
              "0.09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.09"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 273,
            "terms": [
              "0.09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.09"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 348,
            "terms": [
              "0.11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J07.groups]]  # vol 0.02. research/11 J07: 0.11 of the volume of \"gift ideas\"."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 411,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.16"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.16",
              "0.09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 115,
            "terms": [
              "0.11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 0.11"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No matching app-specific previous-year DAU/time/session series in the stored batch."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U17",
      "metric": "Share of app time by surface",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "pin_detail_pages": 0.534,
          "main_feed": 0.194,
          "pin_detail_prior_year": 0.511,
          "main_feed_prior_year": 0.21
        },
        "unit": "share of time",
        "definition": "Share of app time by surface",
        "population": "Pinterest app, Sensor Tower panel",
        "period": "Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/",
        "publisher": "Sensor Tower, reported by PPC Land",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.2"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No time model or time-by-surface output.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/",
          "0.534",
          "53.4%",
          "0.194",
          "19.4%",
          "0.511",
          "51.1%",
          "0.21",
          "21%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 58,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3565,
            "terms": [
              "0.194"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.194"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2022 | 433 | -5% | 92 | 117 | 223 | 21% | [Q2 2022 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000097/q2-22xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2022 | 445 | +0% | 95 | 120 | 230 | 21% | [Q3 2022 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000125/q3-22xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2022 | 450 | +4% | 95 | 124 | 231 | 21% | [Q4 2022 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629323000021/q4-22xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 82,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2023 | 463 | +7% | 95 | 128 | 240 | 21% | [Q1 2023](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629323000074/q1-23xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 119,
            "terms": [
              "https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/",
              "53.4%",
              "19.4%",
              "51.1%",
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| DAU +11% US and +16% global, minutes per day +11%, sessions per day +9% YoY; Pin detail pages 53.4% of time (51.1% a year earlier), main feed 19.4% (21%) | [T] Sensor Tower Q2 2026 as reported by PPC Land. Underlying report not retrieved | 2026-08-03 | [PPC Land](https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 582,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2021 | 633 | +43% | 498 | 135 | 21% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 600,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2023 | 981 | +12% | 779 | 162 | 41 | 21% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 602,
            "terms": [
              "21%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2024 | 854 | +21% | 673 | 143 | 38 | 21% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 623,
            "terms": [
              "0.21"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2019 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 0.21 | 19x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 626,
            "terms": [
              "0.21"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2020 | 1.03 | 3.85 | 0.21 | 18x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 655,
            "terms": [
              "0.21"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | 1.78 | 7.64 | 1.31 | 0.21 | 5.8x | 36x |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No time model or time-by-surface output."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U18",
      "metric": "Time per DAU relative to other US social apps",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "below the category baseline in 2026, across almost all age bands; YoY growth in time per DAU picked up in 2025",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Time per DAU relative to other US social apps",
        "population": "US app users",
        "period": "2025-10-23; 2026-08-13"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://apptopia.com/en/insights/american-social-media-time-increasing/",
          "https://apptopia.com/en/insights/3q25-earnings-previews-and-4q-early-look-grab-pins/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://apptopia.com/en/insights/american-social-media-time-increasing/ ; https://apptopia.com/en/insights/3q25-earnings-previews-and-4q-early-look-grab-pins/",
        "publisher": "Apptopia",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No minutes per DAU or simulations of the other apps' category baseline.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://apptopia.com/en/insights/american-social-media-time-increasing/",
          "https://apptopia.com/en/insights/3q25-earnings-previews-and-4q-early-look-grab-pins/",
          "2026",
          "2025"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 3683,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 12,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "start_date = \"2026-10-19\"   # day 0, when scenarios switch on; seasons follow the calendar from here"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2026",
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2026",
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_ratio = [0.30, 0.70, 1.00]     # Walmart's in-chat purchases converted at a third of click-out (2026); 1.0 = as good as the merchant's site"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 108,
            "terms": [
              "2026",
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed uptake range and USD 5.99 price; same mechanism and payer selection as X16, which implements the F16 ask. Heavy users likelier to pay; bad links and AI remain. No non-payer backlash or costs modelled. Precedent only: research/03 section 3.3, 2025 court filing READ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.630.0.pdf , exact filing date not recorded. A12 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ .\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 120,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 133,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 2,
            "terms": [
              "2026",
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Public targets: Q2 2026 / Q2 2025 MAU, published 2026-08-04."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 15,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No minutes per DAU or simulations of the other apps' category baseline."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U19",
      "metric": "Frequency of use among US Pinterest users",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "daily": 0.25,
          "at_least_weekly": 0.56
        },
        "unit": "share of users",
        "definition": "Frequency of use among US Pinterest users",
        "population": "US adults who use Pinterest (n=200)",
        "period": "2016-03/04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/11/PI_2016.11.11_Social-Media-Update_FINAL.pdf"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/11/PI_2016.11.11_Social-Media-Update_FINAL.pdf",
        "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.2b"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.dau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.21078777024046272,
        "min": 0.20754658259942657,
        "max": 0.21196596557315542,
        "p5": 0.2078707013635302,
        "p95": 0.21184814603988614,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 0.21078777024046272,
          "RoW": 0.20754658259942657,
          "UCAN": 0.21196596557315542
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "daily/monthly active ratio",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 0.20814492453477396,
          "min": 0.18696704226109495,
          "max": 0.22921478459757597,
          "p5": 0.19118070735549111,
          "p95": 0.22723633931314216,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "2016 self-reported frequency among US adult ever-users is not rolling daily/monthly activity among all simulated current users; weekly response is not WAU/MAU.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2016/11/PI_2016.11.11_Social-Media-Update_FINAL.pdf",
          "0.25",
          "25%",
          "0.56",
          "56%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 207,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "save_p = [0.15, 0.25, 0.38]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_load = [0.12, 0.18, 0.25]           # ads per organic impression (never published)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 55,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "rev_gamma = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5]           # revenue ~ (click-outs)^gamma; research/03 value chain puts clicks to revenue near a quarter"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 74,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "income_purchase = { value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5], basis = \"assumed score increment per socioeconomic band after click; baseline click-weighted normalization preserves aggregate conversion\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.25, 0.3, 0.35], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "boost_share = [0.10, 0.18, 0.25]   # recent iPhones among all users (0.30 to 0.55 of US and Canada in research/03; lower worldwide, assumed)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 106,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"delivery_gain\", op = \"set\", value = [0.03, 0.12, 0.25] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.65, 0.88, 0.98] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. 2016 self-reported frequency among US adult ever-users is not rolling daily/monthly activity among all simulated current users; weekly response is not WAU/MAU."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U20",
      "metric": "Americans using Pinterest weekly",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "nearly one in six (about 17%), up 14% from 2020",
        "unit": "share of US population",
        "definition": "Americans using Pinterest weekly",
        "population": "US adults, YouGov Profiles panel",
        "period": "2024-03-13"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://yougov.com/en-us/reports/48859-us-pinterest-report-2024"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://yougov.com/en-us/reports/48859-us-pinterest-report-2024",
        "publisher": "YouGov",
        "origin": "new (was SNIPPET in research/02)"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "calibration.wau_mau",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.6400159884249251,
        "scope": "Accepted-world mean from calibration export; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Weekly share of all US adults requires a US population denominator; global WAU/MAU conditions on monthly users.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://yougov.com/en-us/reports/48859-us-pinterest-report-2024",
          "17%",
          "14%",
          "2020"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 458,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 141,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **RecSim** (Google, arXiv 1909.04847) and **RecSim NG** (RecSys 2020; probabilistic, differentiable): configurable user models with latent interest and satisfaction dynamics. Parametric choice models, no LLM **[S]** https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04847 , https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.08057."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "2. **Regional split changed.** Through Q4 2021 Pinterest reported United States and International. From Q1 2022 it reports US & Canada (UCAN), Europe, and Rest of World, with 2021 restated. There is no public three-region split for 2019 or 2020, and no US-only figure after 2021."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 55,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2019 | 291 | | 85 | 206 | [Q1 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000072/pins-ex992x20200331.htm), prior-year column |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 56,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2019 | 300 | | 85 | 215 | [Q2 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000150/pins-ex992x20200630.htm), prior-year column |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 57,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2019 | 322 | | 87 | 235 | [Q3 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000244/pins-ex992x20200930.htm), prior-year column |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 59,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2020 | 367 | +26% | 90 | 277 | [Q1 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000072/pins-ex992x20200331.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 60,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2020 | 416 | +39% | 96 | 321 | [Q2 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000150/pins-ex992x20200630.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 61,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2020 | 442 | +37% | 98 | 343 | [Q3 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000244/pins-ex992x20200930.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 62,
            "terms": [
              "2020"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2020 | 459 | +37% | 98 | 361 | [Q4 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629321000023/pins-ex992x20201231.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "17%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | 600 | +12% | 103 | 150 | 347 | 17% | [Q3 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629325000228/q3-25xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "17%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | 619 | +12% | 105 | 158 | 356 | 17% | [Q4 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000019/q4-25xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "17%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2026 | 631 | +11% | 106 | 159 | 367 | 17% | [Q1 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000066/q1-26xpressrelease.htm) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Weekly share of all US adults requires a US population denominator; global WAU/MAU conditions on monthly users."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "U21",
      "metric": "Deepening engagement per user",
      "category": "usage_intensity",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "queries, boards created and clicks to advertisers grow faster than users, globally and in UCAN; queries per user grew YoY",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Deepening engagement per user",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "Q3 2025 to Q4 2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter ; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No dated queries/boards-created/advertiser-clicks per-user growth series.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 4,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 675,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +54% | -24% | [Q3 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 676,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | +41% | -19% | [Q4 2025 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 701,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Third-party demand | Amazon Ads (2023-04-27), Google (2024-02-08), Magnite (Q1 2025). Resellers in 30 markets (Q3 2024), 40+ countries (Q3 2025). Share of revenue not disclosed. \"First-party ad demand continues to be the primary driver\" | Q3 2025 call | [transcript](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/notes-2026-10-12/F-company.md",
            "line": 24,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2026-01-20 to 2026-02-12 | Reset. New chief business officer and chief marketing officer, layoffs of \"less than 15%\", then Q4 miss: \"we are not satisfied with our Q4 revenue performance\". Three priorities stated for the first time in this form (1.2). New emphasis: broaden revenue beyond the largest retailers | [P] READ, [Q4 2025 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No dated queries/boards-created/advertiser-clicks per-user growth series."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S01",
      "metric": "Monthly searches (queries)",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "about 80 billion (Q3 2025); 'more than 80 billion' (Q4 2025 to Q2 2026)",
        "unit": "queries/month",
        "definition": "Monthly searches (queries)",
        "population": "Global; includes related-item loads and other visual search plus text search",
        "period": "2025-11-04 to 2026-08-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 4057502.0439739493,
        "min": 2451364.812628199,
        "max": 6816375.69142549,
        "p5": 2732206.324098274,
        "p95": 5748235.228905512,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Pin impressions are not query events. Current searches include related-item loads; steps include browsing and have no fixed step-to-query mapping.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "2025",
          "2026"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 3683,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 12,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "start_date = \"2026-10-19\"   # day 0, when scenarios switch on; seasons follow the calendar from here"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2025",
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2025",
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_ratio = [0.30, 0.70, 1.00]     # Walmart's in-chat purchases converted at a third of click-out (2026); 1.0 = as good as the merchant's site"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 108,
            "terms": [
              "2025",
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed uptake range and USD 5.99 price; same mechanism and payer selection as X16, which implements the F16 ask. Heavy users likelier to pay; bad links and AI remain. No non-payer backlash or costs modelled. Precedent only: research/03 section 3.3, 2025 court filing READ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.630.0.pdf , exact filing date not recorded. A12 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ .\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 120,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 133,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 2,
            "terms": [
              "2025",
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Public targets: Q2 2026 / Q2 2025 MAU, published 2026-08-04."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 15,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Pin impressions are not query events. Current searches include related-item loads; steps include browsing and have no fixed step-to-query mapping."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S02",
      "metric": "Monthly searches, older definition",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "more than 5 billion",
        "unit": "searches/month",
        "definition": "Monthly searches, older definition",
        "population": "Global, text and visual searches including zooming into a Pin; 'any 30-day period since April 2021'",
        "period": "2021-2023 (post dated 2023-01-21)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/the-evolution-of-search-at-pinterest-c69e78ff2698"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/the-evolution-of-search-at-pinterest-c69e78ff2698",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Engineering blog",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 4057502.0439739493,
        "min": 2451364.812628199,
        "max": 6816375.69142549,
        "p5": 2732206.324098274,
        "p95": 5748235.228905512,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "The older search definition excludes many loads counted today; neither engine Pin impressions nor sessions export those query events.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/the-evolution-of-search-at-pinterest-c69e78ff2698"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1828,
            "terms": [
              "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/the-evolution-of-search-at-pinterest-c69e78ff2698"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- May 2021: \"more than 5 billion searches on Pinterest every month\" (text plus visual); Gen Z searches per Pinner +31% y/y (READ, Pinterest Engineering 2021-05-20, https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/the-evolution-of-search-at-pinterest-c69e78ff2698)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The older search definition excludes many loads counted today; neither engine Pin impressions nor sessions export those query events."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S03",
      "metric": "Monthly visual searches (Lens, extension, in-Pin)",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "value": 600000000.0,
          "yoy": 1.4
        },
        "unit": "searches/month",
        "definition": "Monthly visual searches (Lens, extension, in-Pin)",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2018-02-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://newsroom-archive.pinterest.com/celebrating-one-year-of-pinterest-lens"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://newsroom-archive.pinterest.com/celebrating-one-year-of-pinterest-lens",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Newsroom",
        "origin": "also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 4057502.0439739493,
        "min": 2451364.812628199,
        "max": 6816375.69142549,
        "p5": 2732206.324098274,
        "p95": 5748235.228905512,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "No Lens/visual-query observable or 2018 historical batch; snippet-only figure remains unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://newsroom-archive.pinterest.com/celebrating-one-year-of-pinterest-lens",
          "6e+08",
          "600 million",
          "600M",
          "1.4"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 47,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ctx_gain = [1.05, 1.2, 1.4]            # usefulness multiplier when stated constraints are applied: filtered results beat unfiltered ones"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ctx_gain = [1.05, 1.2, 1.4]            # usefulness multiplier when stated constraints are applied: filtered results beat unfiltered ones"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 58,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Effect-size inflation.** Nature 2026 (above) and the A/B papers in 1.4 agree: direction is often right, magnitude overshoots."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 64,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "### 1.4 Product adoption, purchase intent and A/B outcomes specifically"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 120,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Shopify SimGym** | Browser agents grounded in store traffic | Research preview | Section 1.4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 263,
            "terms": [
              "600M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "6. **Use weighted agents and oversample what matters.** With about 600M users and several billion non-users, \"1 agent per 1,000 people\" either starves small-country user cells or bloats non-users. Give each agent a sampling weight; oversample users, high-ARPU markets and at-risk states. For small cells, propagate expected values (compartment-style) instead of sampling to avoid Monte Carlo noise swamping small effects."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 195,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 1 | United States | 96.90 | 27.9 | 32.6 | 29.9 | 71.4 | 19.2 | +1.4 | 34.5 | /digital-2026-united-states-of-america |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 207,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 13 | Japan | 9.19 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 63.6 | 29.8 | +1.4 | 6.4 | /digital-2026-japan |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 426,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 35-44 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 528,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Share of total Android time across social apps, YouTube = 100 | 1.7 (Snapchat 4.8, X 3.5, Discord 1.4) | same | Aug 2025 | deck slide 421 | RECON |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 858,
            "terms": [
              "1.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "#### 1.4 Clicks to advertisers (2022 to 2024)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1166,
            "terms": [
              "600 million",
              "600M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflicts:** (a) Peak month: Appfigures says 16.7M in July 2020; AppMagic says 19.4M in October 2020. Different panels, different peaks. (b) The same AppMagic page gives \"mobile MAU\" of 493M currently and a 703M peak in July 2025. Pinterest's reported total MAU was below 600M in mid-2025 (\"600 million-plus\" was first cited on CALL:2025Q3) and about 85% come through the app, so a 703M app figure is impossible on the company definition. Do not use AppMagic's MAU. (c) Sensor Tower's US WAU of 45M to 51M is app-only and panel-based; company UCAN MAU is above 100M with a global WAU/MAU of 62%. Sensor Tower shows a Q3 2025 dip (51.5M to about 46M"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No Lens/visual-query observable or 2018 historical batch; snippet-only figure remains unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S04",
      "metric": "Share of searches that are commercial",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "over half",
        "unit": "share of searches",
        "definition": "Share of searches that are commercial",
        "population": "Global, all searches; 'commercial' not defined",
        "period": "2026-02-12 to 2026-08-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No counted search events split by commercial query intent; journey commercial scores are assumptions about occasions.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No counted search events split by commercial query intent; journey commercial scores are assumptions about occasions."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S05",
      "metric": "Share of text searches that are unbranded",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "over 96%",
        "unit": "share of text searches",
        "definition": "Share of text searches that are unbranded",
        "population": "Global text searches (newsroom and business site say 96% of top searches)",
        "period": "2026-08-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04 ; https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2026 call; Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new read"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "The model has no text-query strings or branded/unbranded classifier.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
          "96%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 15,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **KITE** (arXiv 2609.27535, 2026-09-23) https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27535 | 1M agents, 20 steps in 0.9 s on a laptop **[V]** | A decision model (Jev) queried **once per unique state**; population executed from a table with common random numbers; an expensive model reserved for sparse \"anchors\" | Human experiments: anchors on 1.7% of states cut effect error 41%; coverage 93%/96% at nominal 80%/90% once human–model discrepancy is propagated, versus 29%/36% from sampling uncertainty alone **[V]** | A few thousand kernel calls. Single author, three weeks old, not peer reviewed. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 115,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Electric Twin** | LLM plus real survey seed data plus behavioural modelling | \"Up to 96%\" on 1−MAE, \"up to 92%\" on a stricter metric where it says GPT-5 scores 65%; 155 countries https://www.electrictwin.com/accuracy | A preregistered study with Prof. Michael Muthukrishna (LSE/NYU): 7,755 people on seven panels plus a synthetic benchmark; \"held its own ... across most of what was tested\" **[V]** https://www.electrictwin.com/blog/same-survey-seven-panels-one-ai. Run in collaboration with the vendor and published on its blog, so not arm's-length. Note \"up to\". |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 389,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US reach, ages 18-24 | 46% | page as of Oct 2026 (footnoted source not shown in fetched text) | CR | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 412,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| \"70% women and 30% men\" globally | 70 / 30 | page as of Oct 2026 | CR | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 445,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2026 | \"making up 50% of our global user base\" | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 453,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Weekly Pinners who feel inspired by the shopping experience | 80% | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 454,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Top searches that are unbranded | 96% | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1327,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Unbranded share of text searches | \"Over 96%\" | Q2 2026 call | Newsroom 2025-09-25 says 96% of *top* searches |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1495,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 102 | 2023-11 | Direct links, business blog figures | consideration: \"average of 96% more clicks to site\" and \"38% decrease in cost per outbound click\"; catalog sales: \"68% more clicks to site\" and \"26% increase in click-based conversions\" | adv-test vs previous campaigns | adopters | https://business.pinterest.com/blog/direct-links-are-here-for-holiday-campaigns/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Shopping intent | \"#1 reason for coming to Pinterest is to shop\" (GWI-sourced) | 2026 | CR citing SV | [Pinterest Business](https://business.pinterest.com/audience/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 115,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Sources opened for this follow-up: https://business.pinterest.com/audience/?locale=en_GB ; https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/bill-ready-at-pinterest-presents-2026/ . The first has separate analysis-specific age footnotes and a Q2 2025 global-share footnote; the second repeats the majority claim in September 2026. Neither establishes the required linked definition. This is a post-registration investigation, explicitly not a newly preregistered successful test."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/notes-2026-10-12/D-practitioners.md",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "96%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **User Intuition preregistered study (2026-08-04)** **[V, rival: sells human interviews]**. 53 panellists, 265 held-out questions. Demographic-only personas got 19% of the way from \"a stranger\" to \"the person's own interview\"; an interview transcript closed 81% (CI 68–96%). Small n; LLM judges. https://www.userintuition.ai/research/how-accurate-are-synthetic-users/"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The model has no text-query strings or branded/unbranded classifier."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S06",
      "metric": "Share of searches that are visual",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "the vast majority; related items and other visual search are 'by far the largest source of queries'",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Share of searches that are visual",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2025-11-04; 2026-08-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No visual versus typed query-event counts; browsing stages do not identify query type.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 675,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +54% | -24% | [Q3 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 701,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Third-party demand | Amazon Ads (2023-04-27), Google (2024-02-08), Magnite (Q1 2025). Resellers in 30 markets (Q3 2024), 40+ countries (Q3 2025). Share of revenue not disclosed. \"First-party ad demand continues to be the primary driver\" | Q3 2025 call | [transcript](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No visual versus typed query-event counts; browsing stages do not identify query type."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S07",
      "metric": "Growth in queries on newest visual search features",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.44,
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Growth in queries on newest visual search features",
        "population": "Global, latest visual search features only",
        "period": "Q3 2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q3 2025 call",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No newest-visual-search feature query series or matched previous year.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "0.44",
          "44%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 33,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 542,
            "terms": [
              "0.44"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.44"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Squoosh, \"The Judge Knows When It Knows\" (arXiv 2608.07517, 2026) https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07517 | 330 real web conversion A/B tests, multimodal LLM judging screenshots | \"Mostly no.\" Cohen's κ = 0.141 [0.034, 0.248]; on statistically significant tests κ = 0.108 with a CI spanning zero. A 2.8× more expensive model was no better. Judges agree with each other at κ = 0.74–0.88 but with outcomes at about 0.2: \"reproducibility must never be mistaken for validity.\" 44% of the \"ground-truth\" labels came from non-significant tests **[V]**. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 675,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +54% | -24% | [Q3 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 701,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Third-party demand | Amazon Ads (2023-04-27), Google (2024-02-08), Magnite (Q1 2025). Resellers in 30 markets (Q3 2024), 40+ countries (Q3 2025). Share of revenue not disclosed. \"First-party ad demand continues to be the primary driver\" | Q3 2025 call | [transcript](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1332,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Queries on newest visual search features | +44% YoY | Q3 2025 | No base |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1336,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Teens vs other ages | Saving +64% re-pins per user, searching +44%, organising boards +68% | 2026-09-01 | [Newsroom](https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/teen-wellbeing-edit/). Vendor claim, no method |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1460,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 77 | 2025 Q3 (Q3'25 call) | Newest visual search features (not named or dated on the call; the link to the May 2025 launch is an inference) | \"queries grew the fastest at 44% year-over-year in Q3\" | pre/post YoY | n/s | IR/doc_financials/2025/q3/PINS-Q3-2025-Transcript-2.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1486,
            "terms": [
              "0.44"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 93 | 2021-07 | Act-alike (AAL) model changes | AAL ads impressions and revenue \"3.6% and 3.1%\"; \"5.7% drop on CTR\", \"8.3% drop on hide rate\", \"2.7% gain on good click ratio\"; sample weighting: revenue, impressions, eCPM +0.82%, +0.38%, +0.44% | A/B, two weeks | AAL slice | PE/the-machine-learning-behind-delivering-relevant-ads-8987fc5ba1c0 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1550,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 147 | 2017-11 | Mobile web rewritten as PWA | \"Time spent is up by 40% compared to the old mobile web experience, user-generated ad revenue is up 44% and core engagements are up 60%\" | \"compared to the old mobile web experience\"; comparison method not stated; post by a Google engineer | mobile web | https://medium.com/dev-channel/a-pinterest-progressive-web-app-performance-case-study-3bd6ed2e6154 (Google's Addy Osmani, not a Pinterest channel) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1627,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Measured effect of Tried it, AI board tools (Oct 2025), Pinterest Assistant, or the May 2025 visual search launch at launch time.** Newsroom posts carry no numbers; the only visual-search figure is the +44% YoY query growth."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1657,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Visual search refinements | 2025-05-05 | Glow on shoppable objects, generated descriptor words, refinement bar, long-press \"Search image\" | Queries on the \"latest visual search features\" +44% YoY (Q3 2025 call; the link to these features is an inference). Paper: engagement +54% and relevance@5 +14% to +18% against baseline | Gives users words they did not have | US, Canada, UK women's fashion first; slow category expansion | [Newsroom](https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/introducing-new-visual-search-features/); KDD CJ'25 paper |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1842,
            "terms": [
              "44%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Shop tabs on search, boards and from Pins; at launch \"the number of users engaging with Shopping on Pinterest has grown by 44% year-over-year\" and traffic to retailers was up 2.3x y/y (READ, TechCrunch 2020-04-07, https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/07/pinterest-adds-new-shop-tabs-connected-to-in-stock-inventory-style-guides-and-more/)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No newest-visual-search feature query series or matched previous year."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S08",
      "metric": "Share of ad impressions on search surfaces",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.72,
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Share of ad impressions on search surfaces",
        "population": "Global; 'search surfaces' include related Pins",
        "period": "Q1 2026 (call 2026-05-04)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q1 2026 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.ads",
      "engine": {
        "median": 910499.3017266691,
        "min": 450061.52418699604,
        "max": 1389563.7047043622,
        "p5": 626933.4969567603,
        "p95": 1260857.5905001378,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Total ads are exported but no search-surface ad-impression share in this batch.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
          "0.72",
          "72%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 47,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3430,
            "terms": [
              "0.72"
            ],
            "excerpt": "female_share = 0.72"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3505,
            "terms": [
              "0.72"
            ],
            "excerpt": "female_share = 0.72"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 35,
            "terms": [
              "72%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Toubia et al., Twin-2K-500 (Marketing Science, online 2025-08-20) https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mksc.2025.0262 | 2,058 US panellists, 500+ questions, 4 waves, including a pricing survey | Public dataset; reported individual-level accuracy about 72% against about 82% test–retest **[M]** | The same group's follow-up (below) is much less flattering. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 289,
            "terms": [
              "72%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "8. **Twin-2K-500 and Park et al. sub-results** marked [M] (72% vs 82% test–retest; Big Five 80%; economic games 66%; Hewitt r ≈ 0.85) should be re-checked against the papers before being quoted."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 114,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Time spent, sessions, DAU | Not disclosed. On the Q1 2026 call Ready said \"we do not comment on or validate third-party data\" | 2026-05-04 | [transcript](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 383,
            "terms": [
              "72%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Piper Sandler \"Taking Stock With Teens\" (Fall 2025, n=10,969) publishes monthly usage for Instagram (87%), TikTok (79%), Snapchat (72%) in its Spring 2025 release (SNIPPET); I did not find a public Pinterest figure in the free summaries."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 638,
            "terms": [
              "0.72"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2021 | 1.32 | 4.87 | 0.72 | 0.06 | 6.8x | 81x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 641,
            "terms": [
              "0.72"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2022 | 1.33 | 4.98 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 6.9x | 62x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 643,
            "terms": [
              "0.72"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2022 | 1.56 | 6.13 | 0.72 | 0.11 | 8.5x | 56x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 677,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2026 | +24% | -5% | [Q1 2026 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 695,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Performance+ share of lower-funnel revenue | About 30% | Q1 2026 call | [transcript](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/04/pinterest-pins-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1328,
            "terms": [
              "72%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Share of impressions on search surfaces | 72% | Q1 2026 call, 2026-05-04 | \"Search surfaces\" includes related Pins |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Total ads are exported but no search-surface ad-impression share in this batch."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S09",
      "metric": "Share of search clicks in the top ten results",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.45,
        "unit": "share of clicks",
        "definition": "Share of search clicks in the top ten results",
        "population": "Search results",
        "period": "2025-09-25"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/pinterest-introduces-top-of-search-ads-and-new-advertising-tools/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/pinterest-introduces-top-of-search-ads-and-new-advertising-tools/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Newsroom",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No click ranking positions or top-ten click-share output.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/pinterest-introduces-top-of-search-ads-and-new-advertising-tools/",
          "0.45",
          "45%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 88,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 39,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "reapply = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]             # P(user re-enters the refinement when it was lost)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 78,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.45, 0.55, 0.65], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 3,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "shopping = { value = [0.45, 0.75, 0.95], basis = \"assumed joint useful shopping destination and requested-item availability; no measured rate; research/16-slice-1-spec.md, 2026-10-12\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 72,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"finish_p\", op = \"set\", value = [0.2, 0.45, 0.7] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 114,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.10, 0.25, 0.45]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 322,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.1, 0.25, 0.45]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Assumptions: k=1.03, deflator=0.45, cap=0.6, pool_min=0.25. Units: millions; arpu USD/quarter."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 39,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "reapply = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]             # P(user re-enters the refinement when it was lost)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 78,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.45, 0.55, 0.65], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 137,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "shopping = { value = [0.45, 0.75, 0.95], basis = \"assumed joint useful shopping destination and requested-item availability; no measured rate; research/16-slice-1-spec.md, 2026-10-12\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3449,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "commercial = [0.15, 0.3, 0.45]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3479,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "commercial = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No click ranking positions or top-ten click-share output."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S10",
      "metric": "Share of platform interactions related to search",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "about two-thirds",
        "unit": "share of interactions",
        "definition": "Share of platform interactions related to search",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2025-11-25"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11",
        "publisher": "Business Insider (citing Pinterest)",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said (as reported)",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.sessions",
      "engine": {
        "median": 46877.757088589,
        "min": 32150.89740906554,
        "max": 61109.26811760092,
        "p5": 36500.33440514503,
        "p95": 52385.41306181633,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Search-related interactions are not a share of sessions; no surface interaction counts. Snippet-only row remains unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 694,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Lower-funnel share of revenue | \"More than two-thirds\" | 2025-11-25 and 2026-09-09 | [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11); Ready at Goldman Communacopia via [ts2.tech](https://ts2.tech/en/pinterest-stock-falls-9-2-as-ceo-flags-near-term-pain-abroad/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1743,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- \"I didn't think the world needed a fourth or fifth best TikTok\" (Bill Ready to Business Insider, 2025-11-25, READ, https://www.businessinsider.com/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-search-strategy-google-2025-11). BI's own summary: Pinterest \"had made a big effort to compete with TikTok ... with short-form video, shoppable livestreaming, and paying creators. It didn't work.\" Vogue (2026-01-05): \"When I arrived, Pinterest, like everybody else, was trying to clone TikTok\" (READ, https://www.vogue.com/article/pinterest-ceo-bill-ready-is-taking-big-swings-to-win-gen-z). Note: this quote is from late 2025, not from a 2022-23 call."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Search-related interactions are not a share of sessions; no surface interaction counts. Snippet-only row remains unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S11",
      "metric": "Share who start searches on Pinterest instead of search engines",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "all_respondents": 0.36,
          "gen_z_first_place_to_search": 0.39
        },
        "unit": "share of respondents",
        "definition": "Share who start searches on Pinterest instead of search engines",
        "population": "Adobe survey respondents (population not given on the page)",
        "period": "2025-06-23; 2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/the-future-of-search-is-visual/",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/the-future-of-search-is-visual/ ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Adobe study cited by Pinterest",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No survey response or cross-platform first-search destination measure.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/the-future-of-search-is-visual/",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
          "0.36",
          "36%",
          "0.39",
          "39%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 73,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 140,
            "terms": [
              "36%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J03.groups]]  # vol 0.03. Under equal weights this one term was 36% of the journey's November."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "39%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Persson, Schultzberg, Ankargren, \"Statistical Foundations of LLM-based A/B Testing\" (arXiv 2606.17165, 2026-06) https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17165 | Upworthy headline archive | \"Raw LLM outputs recover only 39% of the human treatment effect while nonparametric calibration closes the gap.\" \"A/B testing on LLM responses is correct only by assumption, whereas A/B testing on humans is correct by design\" **[V]**. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "36%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **KITE** (arXiv 2609.27535, 2026-09-23) https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27535 | 1M agents, 20 steps in 0.9 s on a laptop **[V]** | A decision model (Jev) queried **once per unique state**; population executed from a table with common random numbers; an expensive model reserved for sparse \"anchors\" | Human experiments: anchors on 1.7% of states cut effect error 41%; coverage 93%/96% at nominal 80%/90% once human–model discrepancy is propagated, versus 29%/36% from sampling uncertainty alone **[V]** | A few thousand kernel calls. Single author, three weeks old, not peer reviewed. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 260,
            "terms": [
              "39%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "3. **Use LLM output as a bounded prior on direction and relative size, then shrink it.** Effect magnitudes are inflated (Nature 2026; 39% recovery on Upworthy; \"overshoots\" on 67 A/B tests). Apply a shrinkage factor estimated from backtests, and cap LLM-driven parameter shifts inside preset bounds, as the energy-ABM paper does."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 60,
            "terms": [
              "39%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2020 | 416 | +39% | 96 | 321 | [Q2 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000150/pins-ex992x20200630.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 152,
            "terms": [
              "36%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "4. **Pew did not ask about Pinterest in its 2025 adult survey.** The latest Pew adult figure is 2024 (36%). Pew's teen surveys have not asked about Pinterest since 2014-15."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 226,
            "terms": [
              "0.39"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 32 | Cyprus | 0.39 | 28.4 | 33.0 | 30.0 | 71.2 | 23.4 | -3.7* | n/a | /digital-2026-cyprus |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 391,
            "terms": [
              "39%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US reach, ages 35-44 | 39% | same | CR | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 399,
            "terms": [
              "36%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: YouGov's ~17% weekly vs Pew's 36% \"ever use\" and Verasight's 42% (your notes). These measure different things (weekly vs ever), and 17/36 = 47% is in the same range as Pinterest's WAU/MAU of 57-62%."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 458,
            "terms": [
              "39%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| \"Pinterest households\" 39% more likely to buy retail products, spend 29% more (Oracle, 2016-17) | | S-1/424B4 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 629,
            "terms": [
              "0.36"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2021 | 1.32 | 5.08 | 0.36 | 14x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 697,
            "terms": [
              "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| International share of monetization | \"more than 80% of our users, still roughly 20% of our monetization\" | 2026-09-09 | [Communacopia transcript](https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09). Reported non-UCAN revenue share was 25% in Q2 2026, so \"roughly 20%\" is loose |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No survey response or cross-platform first-search destination measure."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S12",
      "metric": "Gen Z search growth",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.3,
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Gen Z search growth",
        "population": "Gen Z users, global",
        "period": "2024-05-21"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No Gen Z previous-year search-query series; snippet figure unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/",
          "0.3",
          "30%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 191,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "casual_floor = [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]         # project-driven visits a user makes regardless of habit (arrives from a search engine)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 38,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_carry = [0.15, 0.3, 0.5]             # P(stated constraints survive a surface change)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 39,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "reapply = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]             # P(user re-enters the refinement when it was lost)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 50,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "pin_share = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4]            # share of a user's project occasions that go to Pinterest"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 62,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "stage = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.5], basis = \"assumed: each reached stage raises conversion conditional on a click\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "constraint = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.6], basis = \"assumed: a stated constraint makes the clicked choice more actionable\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 64,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "saved_item = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.6], basis = \"assumed: an item saved on the same useful step is a more considered click\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.25, 0.3, 0.35], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.43, 0.55], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "0.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No Gen Z previous-year search-query series; snippet figure unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S13",
      "metric": "Searches per MAU per month",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "low": 125,
          "high": 133
        },
        "unit": "queries/MAU/month",
        "definition": "Searches per MAU per month",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "Q3 2025 to Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "derived: S01 / MAU 600-640M (research/02 §1.1)",
        "publisher": "derived from company figures",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.5"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 4057502.0439739493,
        "min": 2451364.812628199,
        "max": 6816375.69142549,
        "p5": 2732206.324098274,
        "p95": 5748235.228905512,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Derived searches per MAU remain unverified; no specified conversion from Pin impressions or engine steps to counted queries.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "125",
          "133"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 31,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 581,
            "terms": [
              "125",
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2021 | 613 | +125% | 480 | 133 | 22% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 590,
            "terms": [
              "125"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2021 | 613 | +125% | 508 | 92 | 13 | 17% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 715,
            "terms": [
              "125",
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Searches per MAU per month | 80B ÷ 600-640M | about 125-133 | The 80B counts related-Pin loads and visual search, not typed queries. The figure has been \"about 80B\" for four straight quarters |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1518,
            "terms": [
              "125"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 125 | 2026-05 | Real-time context in sequential ads candidate generation | Related Pins \"ads relevance metric improved by 1.08%\"; \"2x more ads candidates retrieved being delivered to impression\"; \"~0.7% measurable lift\" in ROAS; \"~1.4% ROAS lift\" in top countries | A/B implied | related pins ads | PE/enhancing-ad-relevance-integrating-real-time-context-into-sequential-recommender-models-bc3a2f9b682e | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1531,
            "terms": [
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 133 | 2018-06 | Automatic personalized copy testing | \"first nine experiments we shipped collectively increased our WAU (weekly active users) more than 0.67 percent\" | A/B, cumulative of nine | n/s | PE/how-we-increased-engagement-using-automatic-personalized-copy-testing-a229f99d77ea | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1605,
            "terms": [
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Notifications.** Retrieval or ranking changes inside an existing notification type: +0.3% to +2.9% email CTR, +0.9% to +2.6% push opens, +0.09% to +0.27% WAU (rows 136, 138, 139). A new notification concept vs the old one: +88% email click rate, +32% push open rate (row 137). Volume re-allocation by user state: +1% WAU (row 134). Nine copy experiments together: >0.67% WAU (row 133)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 137,
            "terms": [
              "125"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Company cross-check (CR, DV, conditional).** \"80B+ searches\" a month over 640M users is about 125 per user per month, counting Related Pin loads. The engine makes about 32 steps per user per month (7.9 sessions x about 4.1 steps of 24 Pins). If one step is at most one counted search, the engine is short by about 4 times; at 21 sessions it makes about 86. This holds only under that mapping. A step may stand for several loads, and the 80B may include logged-out traffic. It is not an independent contradiction until the mapping is fixed."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "1. **Pinterest Trends is retrievable without logging in.** The public page calls `https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/`, which returns two years of weekly values per search term as JSON. I pulled 181 US terms (133 requests) and built a term basket per journey. This is the first measured Pinterest series in the project. Limits are in §2."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 298,
            "terms": [
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| AI labels wrong | 2 | 4 | 3 | 133 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/20-precedents.md",
            "line": 491,
            "terms": [
              "133"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Eligible population | 4,133,270 IV observations; identifiable users with linked website bookings; price-filtered searches excluded. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/ads.md",
            "line": 1416,
            "terms": [
              "125"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| ads-125 | Campaign bid multipliers API beta | live | Current Create campaigns schema contains campaign-level bid_options including audience, application-type and placement multipliers. The dated April 2025 announcement called this open beta; a later formal GA announcement was not located. Live denotes current documented support with that qualification. Evidence: [READ undated; accessed 2026-10-19](https://developer.pinterest.com/docs/api/v5/campaigns-create/); [READ 2025-04-11](https://s.pinimg.com/webapp/app-developers-mdx-docs-changelog-entries-Campaign-bid-multipliers-mdx-e615fdac94396f9d.mjs). Search: site:developer.pinterest.com bid mu"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/ads.md",
            "line": 1650,
            "terms": [
              "125"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| ads-125 / 2025-04-11 | Campaign bid multipliers API beta — Advertisers can define campaign bid multipliers for audience, app-type and placement conditions. The API applies the configured conditions rather than requiring separate manual bids for every matching opportunity. | live: Current Create campaigns schema contains campaign-level bid_options including audience, application-type and placement multipliers. The dated April 2025 announcement called this open beta; a later formal GA announcement was not located. Live denotes current documented support with that qualification. | unknown. Further iteration or retirement was not found in the s"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Derived searches per MAU remain unverified; no specified conversion from Pin impressions or engine steps to counted queries."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "S14",
      "metric": "Share of Pinterest Assistant queries that are commercial",
      "category": "search",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.8,
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Share of Pinterest Assistant queries that are commercial",
        "population": "US, Assistant users (selected)",
        "period": "2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Pinterest at Goldman Sachs Communacopia",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No Pinterest Assistant query stream or commercial-query classification.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
          "0.8",
          "80%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 137,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_place = { value = [0.8, 0.95, 1.0], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact lives in the same place; other contacts stay within reporting region\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 91,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.86, 0.92], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 18,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }, { param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.5, 0.65, 0.8] }]  # a stale constraint is carried"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 26,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 219,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.02, 0.08, 0.2] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.8, 0.95, 0.99] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 235,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"ad_failure_keep\", op = \"set\", value = [0.2, 0.5, 0.8] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No Pinterest Assistant query stream or commercial-query classification."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P01",
      "metric": "Share of users who come to Pinterest to shop",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "more than half",
        "unit": "share of users",
        "definition": "Share of users who come to Pinterest to shop",
        "population": "Global users",
        "period": "2026-08-04; 2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04 ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2026 call; Communacopia",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Reason for visiting is not purchases or simulated commercial intent; no share of unique users saying they come to shop.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 697,
            "terms": [
              "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| International share of monetization | \"more than 80% of our users, still roughly 20% of our monetization\" | 2026-09-09 | [Communacopia transcript](https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09). Reported non-UCAN revenue share was 25% in Q2 2026, so \"roughly 20%\" is loose |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Reason for visiting is not purchases or simulated commercial intent; no share of unique users saying they come to shop."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P02",
      "metric": "Main reason people come to Pinterest",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "'The number one reason people come to Pinterest is to shop'",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Main reason people come to Pinterest",
        "population": "Pinterest users (footnoted survey, not shown)",
        "period": "2026-07-30"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Ranked self-reported reason for visiting is not an event count or a modelled intent score.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 187,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- \"holiday activity spikes as early as September\" ([Pinterest Business, 2026-07-30](https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/))."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Ranked self-reported reason for visiting is not an event count or a modelled intent score."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P03",
      "metric": "Weekly US Pinners who made a purchase based on brand Pins",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.85,
        "unit": "share of weekly users",
        "definition": "Weekly US Pinners who made a purchase based on brand Pins",
        "population": "Weekly US users (survey; footnote not shown)",
        "period": "cited 2025-03-26"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/building-holiday-finds-how-pinterest-engineers-reimagined-gift-discovery-0a48a0c8bfd8"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/building-holiday-finds-how-pinterest-engineers-reimagined-gift-discovery-0a48a0c8bfd8",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Engineering blog",
        "origin": "new (was SNIPPET in research/02)"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Lifetime self-reported brand-attributed purchases among weekly US Pinners cannot be compared to a count of simulated purchase events over 150 days.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/building-holiday-finds-how-pinterest-engineers-reimagined-gift-discovery-0a48a0c8bfd8",
          "0.85",
          "85%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 135,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 57,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.85, 0.92, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"reapply\", op = \"set\", value = [0.7, 0.85, 0.95] }]   # assumed: typing a sentence beats re-tapping filters"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"finish_p\", op = \"set\", value = [0.3, 0.6, 0.85] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 101,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.70, 0.85, 0.98]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 116,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.65, 0.85, 0.98]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 121,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"delivery_gain\", op = \"set\", value = [0.04, 0.15, 0.30] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.60, 0.85, 0.98] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 309,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.7, 0.85, 0.98]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Lifetime self-reported brand-attributed purchases among weekly US Pinners cannot be compared to a count of simulated purchase events over 150 days."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P04",
      "metric": "Weekly Pinners who feel inspired by the shopping experience",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.8,
        "unit": "share of weekly users",
        "definition": "Weekly Pinners who feel inspired by the shopping experience",
        "population": "Weekly users (survey)",
        "period": "page as of 2026-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.success_rate",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.5672917575914976,
        "min": 0.5671252821455472,
        "max": 0.5673839864032758,
        "p5": 0.5671419296901423,
        "p95": 0.567374763522098,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 0.5673839864032758,
          "RoW": 0.5671252821455472,
          "UCAN": 0.5672917575914976
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "successful sessions / all sessions",
        "raw_global_worlds": {
          "median": 0.5688611753276422,
          "min": 0.492076508349592,
          "max": 0.667124858165691,
          "p5": 0.5033655242736579,
          "p95": 0.6377098314946172,
          "n": 48,
          "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Feeling inspired in a weekly-user survey is not the engine's session-success flag; user and session denominators also differ.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
          "0.8",
          "80%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 142,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_place = { value = [0.8, 0.95, 1.0], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact lives in the same place; other contacts stay within reporting region\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 91,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.86, 0.92], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 18,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }, { param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.5, 0.65, 0.8] }]  # a stale constraint is carried"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 26,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 219,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.02, 0.08, 0.2] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.8, 0.95, 0.99] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 235,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"ad_failure_keep\", op = \"set\", value = [0.2, 0.5, 0.8] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Feeling inspired in a weekly-user survey is not the engine's session-success flag; user and session denominators also differ."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P05",
      "metric": "Purchase likelihood of saved products",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "2x more likely to be purchased",
        "unit": "relative",
        "definition": "Purchase likelihood of saved products",
        "population": "Products saved on Pinterest (method not given)",
        "period": "2025-09-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A conditional saved-product purchase lift needs saved/unsaved product cohorts; total simulated purchases cannot identify it.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A conditional saved-product purchase lift needs saved/unsaved product cohorts; total simulated purchases cannot identify it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P06",
      "metric": "Monthly outbound clicks",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "clicks": 1700000000.0,
          "per_mau_month_derived": 2.7
        },
        "unit": "clicks/month",
        "definition": "Monthly outbound clicks",
        "population": "Global; organic and paid probably mixed",
        "period": "Q4 2025 (call 2026-02-12)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q4 2025 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.1, §3.5"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "calibration.click_outs_per_user_month",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 2.1678063296730206,
        "scope": "Accepted-world mean from calibration export; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": 1.8000000000000003,
        "high": 3.6,
        "unit": "click-outs/MAU/month",
        "rationale": "Existing rejection-sampling acceptance tolerance, copied from the identified batch. The grounding round leaves these checks unchanged. Not a validation tolerance."
      },
      "status": "used for calibration",
      "observation_mapping": "Accepted worlds must satisfy this target (src/main.rs::baseline_until). Use clicks / MAU activity-days × 30.4; the 1.7B monthly claim was divided by contemporaneous Q4 MAU to set 2.7. Regional unfitted click-outs share this fitted quantity and are not independent.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/",
          "1.7e+09",
          "1.7 billion",
          "1.7B",
          "1700 million",
          "1700M",
          "2.7"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 41,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 122,
            "terms": [
              "2.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 2.7"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 122,
            "terms": [
              "2.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = 2.7"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users; register inputs: measured; derived using Q4 2025 MAU, rounded to one decimal\""
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 481,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Lifetime app downloads, iOS + Android | 1.7B | to Apr 2026 | TP (AppMagic) | https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 676,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | +41% | -19% | [Q4 2025 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 713,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B",
              "2.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Outbound clicks per MAU per month | 1.7B ÷ 619M (Q4 2025) | about 2.7 | \"Outbound clicks\" is not defined on the call. It probably mixes organic and paid clicks |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 714,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Revenue per outbound click | $1,319M ÷ (1.7B × 3 months), Q4 2025 | about $0.26 | Not a CPC. Revenue also comes from impression-priced and conversion-priced ads |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 716,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Outbound clicks per 100 \"searches\" | 1.7B ÷ 80B | about 2.1 | Same caveats; clicks also start from home feed |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 890,
            "terms": [
              "2.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| H1 2024 | Share of wallet in one measurement vendor's client base | Pinterest 3.3% of spend (2.7% a year earlier), 2.1% of incremental sales | TP | https://www.linkedin.com/posts/trevortestwuide_does-pinterest-drive-incremental-results-activity-7228095155545726976-Vne3 (Aug 10 2024) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1330,
            "terms": [
              "1.7B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Monthly outbound clicks | 1.7B | Q4 2025 call | No definition |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1415,
            "terms": [
              "2.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 42 | 2025-04 | InteractRank search pre-ranking | vs BM25: Search Intent Fulfillment Rate +6.5%, Fulfilled by 1st Search +9.2%. Two-tower alone +2.7% / +3.9%. InteractRank vs two-tower +3.7% / +5.1% | A/B, 10M users, one week | global | AX/2504.06609 | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Accepted worlds must satisfy this target (src/main.rs::baseline_until). Use clicks / MAU activity-days × 30.4; the 1.7B monthly claim was divided by contemporaneous Q4 MAU to set 2.7. Regional unfitted click-outs share this fitted quantity and are not independent."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P07",
      "metric": "Clicks to advertisers growth",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "q3_2025_yoy": 0.4,
          "three_year_multiple": "more than 5x (paid clicks, 3 years to Q2 2026)"
        },
        "unit": "growth",
        "definition": "Clicks to advertisers growth",
        "population": "Global, paid clicks to advertisers",
        "period": "Q3 2025; Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.clicks",
      "engine": {
        "median": 6470.517093669674,
        "min": 4724.287879053154,
        "max": 9584.994068434753,
        "p5": 4884.350429901819,
        "p95": 8494.320991741453,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Paid clicks to advertisers and multiyear growth are not total outbound clicks over one baseline window; no matching past-year series.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "0.4",
          "40%",
          "2026"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2715,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 12,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "start_date = \"2026-10-19\"   # day 0, when scenarios switch on; seasons follow the calendar from here"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 50,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "pin_share = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4]            # share of a user's project occasions that go to Pinterest"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 85,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.4, 0.5, 0.6], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_ratio = [0.30, 0.70, 1.00]     # Walmart's in-chat purchases converted at a third of click-out (2026); 1.0 = as good as the merchant's site"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Paid clicks to advertisers and multiyear growth are not total outbound clicks over one baseline window; no matching past-year series."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P08",
      "metric": "Clicks to advertisers growth, 2023-2024",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "q4_2023": ">100% YoY",
          "q1_2024": ">100%",
          "q2_2024": ">100%",
          "q3_2024": ">100%",
          "q4_2024": "over 90%"
        },
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Clicks to advertisers growth, 2023-2024",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2024-02 to 2025-02"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest earnings calls (CALL:2023Q4 to CALL:2024Q4 in research/02 §3B.1.4)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 1.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.clicks",
      "engine": {
        "median": 6470.517093669674,
        "min": 4724.287879053154,
        "max": 9584.994068434753,
        "p5": 4884.350429901819,
        "p95": 8494.320991741453,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Advertiser-click growth by historical quarter is not a one-window count of all simulated click-outs.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "100%",
          "90%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 47,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 37,
            "terms": [
              "90%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| PyMC Labs + Colgate-Palmolive, semantic similarity rating (arXiv 2510.08338, 2025-10) https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08338 | 57 personal-care concept surveys, 9,300 human responses | SSR (free-text reaction mapped to Likert via embedding similarity) reached \"90% of human test–retest reliability\" with KS similarity > 0.85 **[V]** | Co-authored by the vendor and the client. One mature category. The target is *stated purchase intent on a survey*, not purchases. Direct numeric Likert elicitation gives unrealistic distributions, which is the useful finding. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "90%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **KITE** (arXiv 2609.27535, 2026-09-23) https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27535 | 1M agents, 20 steps in 0.9 s on a laptop **[V]** | A decision model (Jev) queried **once per unique state**; population executed from a table with common random numbers; an expensive model reserved for sparse \"anchors\" | Human experiments: anchors on 1.7% of states cut effect error 41%; coverage 93%/96% at nominal 80%/90% once human–model discrepancy is propagated, versus 29%/36% from sampling uncertainty alone **[V]** | A few thousand kernel calls. Single author, three weeks old, not peer reviewed. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 119,
            "terms": [
              "90%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **PyMC Labs** | SSR method, open source https://github.com/pymc-labs/semantic-similarity-rating | 90% of test–retest (section 1) | Method is open and reproducible; the data is not. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "1. **MAU** is Pinterest's own count: an authenticated user who visits the site, opens the app, or interacts through the browser or site extension (Save button) at least once in the 30 days ending on the measurement date. On the Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 calls management said 100% of reported users are logged in. MAU is a period-end figure. ARPU uses the average of period-start and period-end MAU, so ARPU × period-end MAU does not rebuild revenue exactly."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 111,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Logged-in share of reported users | 100% | Q2 2026 call, 2026-08-04 (also Q3 2025) | [transcript](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pins/transcripts/660311-q2-2026/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 469,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Share of reported users coming directly through the mobile app | 85%; 100% of reported users logged in | Q2 2026 call | CR | https://transcripts.platformaeronaut.com/transcripts/PINS-2Q26-transcript | SNIPPET (already in your notes) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 823,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2023 | Third-party (Amazon) demand: \"over 50% improvement in relevance on search and a 100% improvement in relevance on related items in early tests\" | CALL:2023Q3 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 872,
            "terms": [
              "100%",
              "90%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2024 | \"over 90% growth in clicks to advertisers year over year, on top of over 100% growth last Q4\" | CALL:2024Q4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1102,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Aug 2026 | \"100% of our reported users are logged in and 85% come to Pinterest directly through our mobile app, meaning we are not heavily reliant on third parties for traffic\" | CALL:2026Q2 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1129,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2025-2026 | Management position: user records and \"100% logged in, 85% direct to app\" cited as evidence of no dependence | CR | CALL:2025Q2 to CALL:2026Q2 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1192,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- All reported MAUs are logged-in (\"authenticated\") by definition (SEC: every 10-K; CALL:2025Q2 \"100% of our reported monthly active users are logged in\")."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1206,
            "terms": [
              "100%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Digital 2022 (GWI Q3 2021, ages 16-64) | not captured | 82.7% | 79.8% | 77.5% | 86.2% | 56.5% | 49.9% | 43.6% | 58.9% | 23.8% | n/a | 41.8% | n/a | https://www.upatlanta.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Digital2022TopTakeaways_Guide_en-min.pdf | READ, with a caveat: the PDF text came out with row labels shifted by one; I re-aligned by the position of the 100% diagonal. Verify against the chart before relying on it |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Advertiser-click growth by historical quarter is not a one-window count of all simulated click-outs."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P09",
      "metric": "Lower-funnel share of revenue",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "more than two-thirds",
        "unit": "share of revenue",
        "definition": "Lower-funnel share of revenue",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2025-11-25; 2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Pinterest (Communacopia)",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No lower-funnel share of advertising revenue; purchase stages are not campaign objectives.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 697,
            "terms": [
              "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| International share of monetization | \"more than 80% of our users, still roughly 20% of our monetization\" | 2026-09-09 | [Communacopia transcript](https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09). Reported non-UCAN revenue share was 25% in Q2 2026, so \"roughly 20%\" is loose |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No lower-funnel share of advertising revenue; purchase stages are not campaign objectives."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P10",
      "metric": "Shopping-ads format share of revenue and growth",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "share_of_global_revenue": 0.14,
          "yoy_growth": 0.47
        },
        "unit": "share / YoY",
        "definition": "Shopping-ads format share of revenue and growth",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2023-09-19"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest Investor Day, 2023-09-19 (transcript cited as INVDAY in research/02 §3B)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Investor Day",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 1.3"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No shopping-ad-format revenue split or previous-year format growth.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "0.14",
          "14%",
          "0.47",
          "47%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 119,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 29,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "occ_rate = [0.08, 0.14, 0.22]          # P(an active project gets worked on today)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 973,
            "terms": [
              "0.47"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.47"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1225,
            "terms": [
              "0.47"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.47"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 78,
            "terms": [
              "47%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J01.groups]]  # vol 0.03. Under equal weights this one term was 47% of the journey's December."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 268,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 288,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 330,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 29,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "occ_rate = [0.08, 0.14, 0.22]          # P(an active project gets worked on today)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3371,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share = [0.09, 0.14, 0.19]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3595,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.02, 0.06, 0.14]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3777,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.08, 0.14, 0.2]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3809,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.02, 0.06, 0.14]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No shopping-ad-format revenue split or previous-year format growth."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P11",
      "metric": "US Pinterest social buyers",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2025": {
            "buyers": 21200000.0,
            "share_of_us_pinterest_users": 0.242
          },
          "2029": {
            "buyers": 25500000.0,
            "share_of_us_pinterest_users": 0.269
          }
        },
        "unit": "people / share",
        "definition": "US Pinterest social buyers",
        "population": "US Pinterest users who buy via social (eMarketer definition: at least one purchase in the year through the platform)",
        "period": "forecast published 2026-01-21"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth",
        "publisher": "eMarketer",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Annual unique US social buyers and a third-party future estimate are not global repeated purchase events over 150 days.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth",
          "2.12e+07",
          "21.2 million",
          "21.2M",
          "0.242",
          "24.2%",
          "2.55e+07",
          "25.5 million",
          "25.5M",
          "0.269",
          "26.9%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 4,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1153,
            "terms": [
              "0.269"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.269"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/06-reviews.md",
            "line": 104,
            "terms": [
              "0.242"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F02 Shortlist tray | 0.51 | 0.069 | 0.242 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "0.242"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| D01 | -3.920 [-10.071, +0.162] | -3.679 [-8.875, -0.034] | +0.242 | -0.021 [-0.069, +0.018] | -0.026 [-0.069, +0.014] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 149,
            "terms": [
              "0.242"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| D01 | -3.920 [-10.071, +0.162] | -3.679 [-8.875, -0.034] | +0.242 | -0.021 [-0.069, +0.018] | -0.026 [-0.069, +0.014] |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Annual unique US social buyers and a third-party future estimate are not global repeated purchase events over 150 days."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P12",
      "metric": "US Pinterest social buyers as share of US digital buyers",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2026_buyers": 22600000.0,
          "share_of_digital_buyers": 0.097
        },
        "unit": "people / share",
        "definition": "US Pinterest social buyers as share of US digital buyers",
        "population": "US digital buyers",
        "period": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery",
        "publisher": "eMarketer",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.4"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Share of unique US digital buyers requires an annual buyer cohort and outside-platform denominator; neither is exported.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery",
          "2.26e+07",
          "22.6 million",
          "22.6M",
          "0.097",
          "9.7%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 12,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3385,
            "terms": [
              "0.097"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.097"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 236,
            "terms": [
              "22.6M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Earlier snapshot for comparison (Jan 2025, READ, https://datareportal.com/essential-pinterest-stats): US 96.0M, Brazil 40.3M, Mexico 26.7M, Germany 22.6M, France 18.9M, UK 15.5M, Argentina 11.1M, Canada 10.7M, Italy 10.5M, Colombia 10.1M."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 704,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery",
              "22.6M",
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US Pinterest social buyers | 22.6M in 2026, 9.7% of US digital buyers | 2026-04-30 | [T] [eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1389,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 21 | 2025-04 | OmniSage board embeddings on Board More Ideas (BMI) | BMI ranking: sitewide repins +0.67%, BMI repins +5.91%, BMI closeups +4.02%. BMI retrieval: +0.38%, +3.79%, +4.65%. Combined \"+1.05% in sitewide repins and +9.7% in BMI repins\" | A/B | n/s | AX/2504.17811 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/17-what-customers-ask-for.md",
            "line": 898,
            "terms": [
              "0.097"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Click-outs that delivered | -0.14 | -1.03 to +0.87 | 0.097; median too small to tell |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 15,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "2. **What changed over time.** Bans were 27.9% of posts in the first half of 2025 against 12.7 to 15.2% in 2024 and 9.5 to 10.1% in 2026. Ads rose from 4.5% in early 2024 to 9.7% in July to October 2026. AI-generated content rose from 1.5% to 5.7%, and wrong AI labels from none to 1.1%. Comparing the last six months with the six before, two large topics rose by more than sampling noise, interface changes (6.3% to 8.8%) and ads (6.0% to 8.3%), and bugs fell (24.3% to 20.9%). AI-generated content went from 4.0% to 4.8%, inside the noise. Three small labels also moved past their margins: wrong AI labels fell (1.6% to 0.9%), spam-blocked sites ro"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 56,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Boards.** The largest gap. The \"board tools\" pattern matches 617 posts, 2,065 are mainly about boards and saved pins, and the pattern catches 16% of them. File 17 has board tools flat near 3%. Coded, boards are 11.4%, 9.7% and 8.7% by year: more than three times larger and drifting down. Most board-labelled posts do not match the board-tools pattern; their subtopics were not separately counted."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 229,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Ads | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 9.7% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 374,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Suspension, ban, appeal | Account ban, suspension or pin removal | 2,803 | 3,438 | 2,230 | 79.6% | 64.9% | 9.9% / 13.8% | 19.2% / 22.8% | 8.3% / 9.7% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/18-voices-coded.md",
            "line": 376,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Board tools | Boards and saved pins | 617 | 2,065 | 337 | 54.6% | 16.3% | 3.1% / 11.4% | 3.0% / 9.7% | 2.7% / 8.7% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/social.md",
            "line": 1156,
            "terms": [
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Pinterest said: “+1.05% in sitewide repins and +9.7% in BMI repins” Combined ranking and retrieval improvements in the 2025 paper; not addition of independently randomised headline lifts. ([READ](https://arxiv.org/html/2504.17811))"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/notes-2026-10-12/F-company.md",
            "line": 218,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery",
              "22.6 million",
              "9.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- eMarketer [3P forecast]: Pinterest \"will reach 22.6 million US social buyers this year... 9.7% of digital buyers\" ([2026-04-30](https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-stakes-claim-visual-search-intent-driven-discovery), READ). Its advice on creator promotions: brands \"should avoid alienating creators\" and \"avoid oversaturating consumers' feeds with ads that make organic discovery feel commercial\"."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Share of unique US digital buyers requires an annual buyer cohort and outside-platform denominator; neither is exported."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P13",
      "metric": "Weekly users who keep buying during Dec 26-31 ('Q5')",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "online": 0.55,
          "in_store": 0.45
        },
        "unit": "share of weekly users",
        "definition": "Weekly users who keep buying during Dec 26-31 ('Q5')",
        "population": "Weekly Pinterest users (survey, footnote not shown)",
        "period": "2025-11-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Surveyed Q5 purchase participation, channel and weekly-user cohort have no matching dated unique-user output.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/",
          "0.55",
          "55%",
          "0.45",
          "45%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 131,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 39,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "reapply = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]             # P(user re-enters the refinement when it was lost)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 78,
            "terms": [
              "0.55",
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.45, 0.55, 0.65], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.43, 0.55], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.55, 0.65, 0.75], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "boost_share = [0.10, 0.18, 0.25]   # recent iPhones among all users (0.30 to 0.55 of US and Canada in research/03; lower worldwide, assumed)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 3,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "shopping = { value = [0.45, 0.75, 0.95], basis = \"assumed joint useful shopping destination and requested-item availability; no measured rate; research/16-slice-1-spec.md, 2026-10-12\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 72,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"finish_p\", op = \"set\", value = [0.2, 0.45, 0.7] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 114,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.10, 0.25, 0.45]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 322,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.1, 0.25, 0.45]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Assumptions: k=1.03, deflator=0.45, cap=0.6, pool_min=0.25. Units: millions; arpu USD/quarter."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 39,
            "terms": [
              "0.45"
            ],
            "excerpt": "reapply = [0.3, 0.45, 0.6]             # P(user re-enters the refinement when it was lost)"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Surveyed Q5 purchase participation, channel and weekly-user cohort have no matching dated unique-user output."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P14",
      "metric": "Users creating holiday gift lists by October",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "pinterest_2025_guide": 0.41,
          "secondary_report": 0.46
        },
        "unit": "share of users",
        "definition": "Users creating holiday gift lists by October",
        "population": "Pinterest audience (survey)",
        "period": "2025-07-18"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/",
          "https://www.websitebuilderexpert.com/news/pinterest-holiday-marketing-guide-2025/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/ ; https://www.websitebuilderexpert.com/news/pinterest-holiday-marketing-guide-2025/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business; Website Builder Expert",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ (41%); SNIPPET (46%)",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.saves",
      "engine": {
        "median": 20288.388706092388,
        "min": 12059.528348199266,
        "max": 29270.099037220672,
        "p5": 13537.1801086781,
        "p95": 26780.73302203791,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Gift-list creation by October is not saving events; no holiday board-creation/user cohort. The 46% snippet is unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/",
          "https://www.websitebuilderexpert.com/news/pinterest-holiday-marketing-guide-2025/",
          "0.41",
          "41%",
          "0.46",
          "46%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 56,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "41%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **KITE** (arXiv 2609.27535, 2026-09-23) https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27535 | 1M agents, 20 steps in 0.9 s on a laptop **[V]** | A decision model (Jev) queried **once per unique state**; population executed from a table with common random numbers; an expensive model reserved for sparse \"anchors\" | Human experiments: anchors on 1.7% of states cut effect error 41%; coverage 93%/96% at nominal 80%/90% once human–model discrepancy is propagated, versus 29%/36% from sampling uncertainty alone **[V]** | A few thousand kernel calls. Single author, three weeks old, not peer reviewed. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 389,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US reach, ages 18-24 | 46% | page as of Oct 2026 (footnoted source not shown in fetched text) | CR | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 575,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2019 | 400 | +46% | 350 | 50 | 13% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 671,
            "terms": [
              "41%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2024 | +41% | -17% | [IR transcript PDF](https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_earnings/2024/q3/transcript/Q3-2024-Transcript.pdf) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 676,
            "terms": [
              "41%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | +41% | -19% | [Q4 2025 call](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/12/pinterest-pins-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 786,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | +22% | +46% | SEC: 10-Q Q1 2021; CALL:2021Q1 | Call: ad load \"actually ticked down in the first quarter year-over-year\" in the US and globally |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 938,
            "terms": [
              "41%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2024 | +12% | +35% | -17% | +41% | -17% | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 943,
            "terms": [
              "41%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | +37% | +24% | +11% | +41% | -19% | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 960,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 to Q4 2018 | CTR | 0.46%, 0.48%, 0.62%, 1.0% | n/a | TP | 4C Insights | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1443,
            "terms": [
              "0.41",
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 65 | 2026-07 | MESH unified retrieval on Related Pins | \"+5.5% lift in fresh-item repins\" (abstract; the body of the paper gives +5.5% for fresh impressions and +4.9% for fresh repins); Sessions > 5 mins +0.46%; Successful Sessions (SSv2) +0.19%; Total time spent in App +0.45%; time spent Related Pins +0.55% (table; the paper's text says +0.51%), Search +0.49%, Home Feed +0.41% | A/B | n/s | https://arxiv.org/html/2607.12392 | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Gift-list creation by October is not saving events; no holiday board-creation/user cohort. The 46% snippet is unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P15",
      "metric": "Monthly users likely to create holiday wishlists they revisit",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "nearly two-thirds",
        "unit": "share of monthly users",
        "definition": "Monthly users likely to create holiday wishlists they revisit",
        "population": "Monthly users (survey)",
        "period": "2025-09-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.saves",
      "engine": {
        "median": 20288.388706092388,
        "min": 12059.528348199266,
        "max": 29270.099037220672,
        "p5": 13537.1801086781,
        "p95": 26780.73302203791,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Likelihood of creating/revisiting a wishlist is a survey answer, not realized saves or board creation.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Likelihood of creating/revisiting a wishlist is a survey answer, not realized saves or board creation."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P16",
      "metric": "Weekly Gen Z Pinners who say they are 'always shopping'",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.63,
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Weekly Gen Z Pinners who say they are 'always shopping'",
        "population": "Weekly Gen Z users (survey)",
        "period": "2024-05-21"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.3d"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.purchases",
      "engine": {
        "median": 149.68370192698785,
        "min": 47.98515848061652,
        "max": 250.76628211251227,
        "p5": 84.76551716062313,
        "p95": 222.19885719931625,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "An 'always shopping' response among weekly Gen Z users is not a purchase-event rate.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/",
          "0.63",
          "63%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 23,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 459,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Weekly Gen Z Pinners who say they are \"always shopping\" | 63% | https://business.pinterest.com/en-gb/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 942,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +63% | +52% | +7% | +54% | -24% | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1402,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 34 | 2026-07 | PinEqualizer fresh-content exploration system (since 2024) | \"350% increase in fresh content impressions\"; fresh-content holdout incremental session gain YoY 2025 vs 2024: overall successful sessions North America +24%, international +49%; shopping sessions North America +63%, international +29% | holdout (cumulative) | NA / intl | https://arxiv.org/html/2607.22518 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| J08 | DIY and craft | Women 25 to 64; teens for small crafts | 0.80 | 30-54 | Monthly | 4 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | text_search | related_pins | AS; 63% of US households craft SV 2016 (old) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 442,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| TikTok Shop US | Sales +407% in 2024 and +108% in 2025 to $15.82B, 18.2% of US social commerce (Momentum Works gives $15.1B). 35% of US adults had used it by March 2026, up from 23%. 63% of Gen Z say they have stopped buying through it | 3P; SV | [eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/press-releases/tiktok-shop-makes-up-nearly-20-of-social-commerce-in-2025/); [eMarketer](https://www.emarketer.com/content/shoppers-checking-on-tiktok-more-than-anywhere) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/04-population-data-and-inference.md",
            "line": 266,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "    \"<noul id>\":   { \"type\": \"noul\",   \"noul\": 0.63 },"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 56,
            "terms": [
              "63%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Web search, 964,780 sessions: more than 63% of queries start a new topic; \"nearly 40% of query submissions were some sort of query reformulation\" | AC, READ | 2009 | [Jansen, Booth, Spink](https://www.bernardjjansen.com/uploads/2/4/1/8/24188166/jansen_patterns_query_reformulation.pdf) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 67,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| J01 outfit | 0.96 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 1.04 | 1.26 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.17 | Sep | 0.26 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| J12 garden | 0.85 | 1.08 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.08 | 0.87 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 0.49 | Apr | 0.76 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| gift ideas | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.76 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 2.13 | 2.83 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 115,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| vacation | 1.73 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.08 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.94 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 232,
            "terms": [
              "0.63"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Pinterest basket: September 1.26, November 1.18, December 1.17, October 1.16, March 1.06; low in June (0.63). The June low is overstated because `summer outfits` is not served. The generic term \"outfit ideas\" peaks in February (1.21) and September (1.21)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. An 'always shopping' response among weekly Gen Z users is not a purchase-event rate."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P17",
      "metric": "Pins saved per week",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "saves_per_week": 1500000000.0,
          "boards_used_per_week": "more than 10 million",
          "derived_saves_per_mau_month": 13.5
        },
        "unit": "saves/week",
        "definition": "Pins saved per week",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2023-11-16 (repeated on newsroom company page, 2026)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/en-gb/news/study-the-consumers-luxury-brands-care-about-the-most-are-on-pinterest/",
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/en-gb/news/study-the-consumers-luxury-brands-care-about-the-most-are-on-pinterest/ ; https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Newsroom",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.saves / baseline_totals.mau * 30.4",
      "engine": {
        "median": 6.298716199390933,
        "min": 4.320004986670669,
        "max": 10.701238784544147,
        "p5": 4.674896183394789,
        "p95": 8.728418698127795,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals",
        "unit": "saves/MAU/month"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": 10.178571428571429,
        "high": null,
        "unit": "saves/MAU/month",
        "rationale": "One-sided lower-bound consistency check, using the larger current 640M denominator. No invented symmetric margin or empirical error bar. The 2023 article says over 1.5B/week; the company page repeats 1.5B beside 640M MAU. Treating that old volume as a current minimum is an explicit persistence assumption. No allowance for an unknown secular/seasonal change; withdraw the comparison if persistence or the population mapping fails."
      },
      "source_verification": {
        "date": "2026-10-18",
        "status": "Recorded source verification from the original 2026-10-18 scorecard research; not reopened by this offline generator",
        "urls": [
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/en-gb/news/study-the-consumers-luxury-brands-care-about-the-most-are-on-pinterest/",
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/"
        ],
        "finding": "2023-11-16 article contains 482M MAU and over 1.5B Pins saved/week. Company page repeats 640M MAU and 1.5B Pins saved/week; underlying save measurement date remains unknown."
      },
      "conditional_diagnostic": "The measurement period and raw-population mapping are unresolved. Excluded from independent comparisons regardless of the conditional verdict.",
      "reconciled_engine": {
        "median": 6.3009780725225735,
        "min": 4.323043847320742,
        "max": 10.704424892955657,
        "p5": 4.6756952847667685,
        "p95": 8.735155013633788,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Population-weighted paired per-world baseline ratios after regional reconciliation; fixed primary-device cohorts. Assumption spread, not observed-person or measurement uncertainty."
      },
      "conditional_comparison": {
        "verdict": "outside tolerance",
        "definition_gate_passed": false,
        "gate_reason": "2023 numerator, unknown measurement period; current-volume persistence is unverified.",
        "included_in_independent_count": false,
        "tolerance": {
          "low": 10.178571428571429,
          "high": null,
          "unit": "saves/MAU/month",
          "rationale": "Pre-registered one-sided diagnostic only: assumes the old 1.5B weekly saves persists at 640M MAU. No current measurement period has been established."
        }
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Conditional comparison of save-event intensity, not a matched historical validation. For each world divide raw global save events by summed rolling-30-day MAU activity-days and multiply by 30.4; never divide medians. Convert public weekly saves to a 30.4-day month (×30.4/7), then divide by current reported global MAU. Assume saves are the same events, the raw weighted engine population represents logged-in global MAU, and the repeated old company volume remains a current lower bound. The new grounding export, when available, separately reports region-reconciled saves; this original diagnostic remains the raw ratio. The dated 482M denominator gives a stricter lower bound, about 13.5. Boards are not compared. The supplied derived 13.5 is unverified input; this score recomputes the looser bound from the stated original levels.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/en-gb/news/study-the-consumers-luxury-brands-care-about-the-most-are-on-pinterest/",
          "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/",
          "1.5e+09",
          "1.5 billion",
          "1.5B",
          "1500 million",
          "1500M",
          "13.5"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 15,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 215,
            "terms": [
              "1.5 billion"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Workload: 1,000,000 calls × (1,500 input + 150 output tokens) = **1.5 billion input + 150 million output tokens**. All totals are **[est]** from the listed prices."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 291,
            "terms": [
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Visits, all devices | 1.5B (Aug 1.32B, Jul 1.31B) | Sep 2026 | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1112,
            "terms": [
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2026 | 72.98% | google.com 20.8% | not given | not given | 1.5B (Jul 1.31B, Aug 1.32B) | TP (Semrush) | https://www.semrush.com/website/pinterest.com/overview/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1118,
            "terms": [
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflicts:** direct share ranges from 57% to 73% and search from 21% to 35% across panels and dates; I cannot tell how much is a real shift between 2025 and 2026 and how much is panel difference. Semrush is internally inconsistent on the same page: it shows google.com at 20.8% of 1.5B visits (about 0.31B) and also \"Organic Search Traffic 1.25B\". It also lists Bangladesh as 15.96% of visits at 99% desktop, which looks like non-human traffic. Treat Semrush totals with caution."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2047,
            "terms": [
              "13.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| AI shopping tool used | ChatGPT 40.9%, Gemini 38.5%, Rufus 13.5%, Walmart Sparky 7.5% | Envision Horizons 2026 | eMarketer 2026-07-15 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 43,
            "terms": [
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sports | 1.5B sport-related searches and saves, July 2024 to July 2025 | 2026-01 | CR | [Moments Guide 2026](https://business.pinterest.com/pdf/2026-marketing-moments-guide/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 469,
            "terms": [
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| E02 | TikTok Shop expands shoppable photo carousels | J01, J04, J07, J06 | Under 35 | Occasions shift for decide and do; retail ad budgets follow sales | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.05 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 8 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -4.0 | -1.5 | 0.0 | TikTok Shop US $1.5B (2023, DV) to $15.8B (2025) | analogue |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 178,
            "terms": [
              "1.5 billion"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| \"1.5 billion Pins saved every week\", about 10 per monthly user per month (DV). Origin not traced, **UNVERIFIED** | CR via aggregator, READ | 2024-07 | Search Engine Journal, above |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 249,
            "terms": [
              "1.5 billion"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Google/Ipsos app-discovery percentages; the AppsFlyer 58% organic share; the Comscore \"5.2 sessions per week\"; the origin of \"1.5 billion Pins saved every week\"."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/09-session-crosscheck.md",
            "line": 84,
            "terms": [
              "13.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| P(progress) | +18.7 to +19.0 | -10.7 to -11.0 | +16.3 to +16.6 | +15.0 to +15.1 | -4.9 to -5.1 | +13.4 to +13.5 | 1.2 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/09-session-crosscheck.md",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "13.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F02 | +16.4% | +13.5% | 1.2 | +17.9% | +12.5% | 1.4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/",
              "1.5B"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- https://newsroom.pinterest.com/company/ (redirected to `/en-au/company/`): repeats 640M MAU and 1.5B weekly saves. No newly dated save measurement established."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. research/07 discusses the old save-volume claim but explicitly declines mechanical save_p rescaling; world/base.toml save_p remains assumed. research/06 records changes to repeat visits and clicks, not a save-volume fit. No recorded use of the volume to set save_p was found, but the observation mapping is insufficient for an independent comparison.",
        "reviewed_locations": [
          "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:138",
          "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:178",
          "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md:184",
          "research/06-reviews.md:92",
          "world/base.toml:44"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P18",
      "metric": "Saves per MAU growth from personalisation",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "more than 60% increase in saves per MAU",
        "unit": "growth",
        "definition": "Saves per MAU growth from personalisation",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2023-09-19; repeated 2025-09-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/ ; Pinterest Investor Day, 2023-09-19 (transcript cited as INVDAY in research/02 §3B)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest",
        "origin": "new read"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.saves",
      "engine": {
        "median": 20288.388706092388,
        "min": 12059.528348199266,
        "max": 29270.099037220672,
        "p5": 13537.1801086781,
        "p95": 26780.73302203791,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A cumulative personalization lift needs matching treatment and counterfactual; the stored baseline is a level.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/",
          "60%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 26,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 822,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2023 | Ceiling: \"it can be a multiple of where we are now\" (wording not found in the sources opened; the nearest statement found is \"significant headroom to continue to grow ad load\"); high-intent analogs (search engines, retailers) show \"ad loads in the 50%-60% plus kind of range when the user has intent ... we are a long way away from that ... getting to that would be multi-year\" | INVDAY |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 853,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2023 / Q4 2023 / Q1 2024 | Direct links coverage of lower-funnel revenue | ~60% / 80% / 97% | CALL:2023Q3; CALL:2023Q4; CALL:2024Q1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1074,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Saving and retention | \"people who save ideas revisit their profile and retain 28% better than those who don't\"; personalization drives \"more than 60% increase in saves per monthly active user\" | Sep 19 2023 | INVDAY |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1550,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 147 | 2017-11 | Mobile web rewritten as PWA | \"Time spent is up by 40% compared to the old mobile web experience, user-generated ad revenue is up 44% and core engagements are up 60%\" | \"compared to the old mobile web experience\"; comparison method not stated; post by a Google engineer | mobile web | https://medium.com/dev-channel/a-pinterest-progressive-web-app-performance-case-study-3bd6ed2e6154 (Google's Addy Osmani, not a Pinterest channel) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1763,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Creator Fund (announced 7 Apr 2021)**: $500,000, for underrepresented creators; announced with the Creator Code and comment moderation tools (SNIPPET, TechCrunch 2021-04-07, https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/07/pinterest-announces-500k-creator-fund-creator-code-content-policy-moderation-tools-and-more/). Expanded by $1.2M on 28 Mar 2022, quarterly cycles (SNIPPET, TechCrunch 2022-03-28, https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/28/pinterest-to-invest-an-additional-1-2-million-in-its-creator-fund-for-underrepresented-groups/). Outcome stat: \"Past participants in the Pinterest Creator Fund gained an average of 60% more followers after completing the progra"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1837,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Catalogs and Shopping Ads**: Shopping Ads out of beta to \"hundreds of advertisers\" 20 Mar 2018 (SNIPPET, MarTech, https://martech.org/pinterest-moves-shoppable-ads-testing-makes-available-hundreds-advertisers/); Catalogs and self-serve Shopping Ads 4 Mar 2019 (SNIPPET, MarTech, https://martech.org/pinterest-makes-shopping-ads-self-serve-launches-new-catalogs-feature/). Q4 2020: \"we increase[d] the number of active catalogs by over 60%\" Q3 to Q4, and \"a 6x increase in shopping advertisers on Pinterest in Q4\" (Q4 2020 call, 2021-02-04, READ, https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2020-year/4-quarter)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1862,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Handoff results: \"Mobile Deep Linking drives a 235% lift in conversion rates compared to previous experience\" (fully launched July 2023) and \"Direct Links drives 88% increase in outbound clicks when we removed the intermediary click\" (READ, EX-99.2). Q3 2023 call adds \"a 35% improvement in their CPAs\" for MDL, \"approximately 60% of our lower funnel revenue\" migrated to Direct Links, \"88% higher outbound click-through rates and a 39% decrease in cost per outbound click for CPC objectives from early adopters\", and lower funnel \"now makes up roughly 2/3 of our revenue\" (READ, Pinterest Q3 2023 transcript, 2023-10-30, https://s204.q4cdn.com/369"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1920,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Mobile web rebuilt as a PWA (2017) and Pinterest Lite (Oct 2019)**: \"Time spent is up by 40% compared to the old mobile web experience, user-generated ad revenue is up 44% and core engagements are up 60%\" (SNIPPET, Addy Osmani case study 2017-11-29, https://medium.com/dev-channel/a-pinterest-progressive-web-app-performance-case-study-3bd6ed2e6154). Pinterest Lite for Android, a packaged PWA, launched in Peru and four other countries (SNIPPET, TechCrunch 2019-10-09, https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/09/pinterest-launches-a-lite-app-for-emerging-markets/). Lite's later status: not found."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2014,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "9. **Automation and coverage, not the feature idea, decided shopping outcomes.** Buyable Pins (<1% of pins, unverified in this review), manual Shop the Look (22.5x coverage once automated), catalogs (active catalogs +60% in a quarter, shopping advertisers 6x), Amazon third-party demand (fills auction gaps)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2045,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Main starting point for retail research is AI | 23% of US consumers (about 61M); Amazon closed 60% of the most recent AI-assisted purchases | PYMNTS, Oct 2026 | [PYMNTS](https://www.pymnts.com/study_posts/from-prompt-to-purchase-who-wins-the-ai-shopper/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2050,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Gen Z weekly search use | Google 90%, TikTok 86%, leading AI search 60% | TikTok/WARC, 2025 (vendor) | Tubefilter 2025-09-10 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2169,
            "terms": [
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 20 | Ad load level | Not published. One outside reading: over 40% of the first 73 results on one query. Management's stated ceiling for high-intent surfaces: 50% to 60% | low | WIRED 2025-12-24; Investor Day 2023 |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A cumulative personalization lift needs matching treatment and counterfactual; the stored baseline is a level."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "P19",
      "metric": "Weekly Pinners' holiday spend vs non-users",
      "category": "shopping",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "vs_non_users_2025": "30% more",
          "uk_weekly_vs_other_platforms_2024": "40% more",
          "au_monthly_vs_other_platforms_2024": "19% more"
        },
        "unit": "relative spend",
        "definition": "Weekly Pinners' holiday spend vs non-users",
        "population": "Pinterest users vs non-users or other-platform users (surveys)",
        "period": "2024-10-30; 2025-07-18"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/en-gb/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/en-au/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/ ; https://business.pinterest.com/en-gb/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/ ; https://business.pinterest.com/en-au/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey (company)",
      "read_status": "READ (30%); SNIPPET (40%, 19%)",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No consumer spend amounts or matched non-user/other-platform spending cohorts; snippet components unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/announcing-2025-holiday-marketing-guide/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/en-gb/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/en-au/blog/performance-solutions-for-holiday-results/",
          "30%",
          "40%",
          "19%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 175,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 35,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_share = [0.001, 0.0075, 0.03]  # eligibility 2 to 10% of sessions x uptake 5 to 30% (research/03 table 3c)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **OASIS** (arXiv 2411.11581, 2024-11) https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.11581 | Up to 1M | Every agent action is an LLM call choosing among 21 actions; the recommender, time engine and environment are code **[S]** | X information spread at about 30% normalised RMSE vs real cascades; herd effects need >100 agents and are pronounced above 10,000 **[S, secondary summary]** | \"100K agents over 10 timesteps requires ~2 days on 5 A100 GPUs\" **[S, secondary summary: https://sapiensq.com/research/posts/oasis-2024/]**. Limit stated there: \"Synthetic user profiles do not replicate real demographic distributions.\" |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 239,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Haiku 5.5 uses the newer tokenizer, which produces about 30% more tokens for the same text than Haiku 4.5 **[V]**. If the 1.5K estimate was made with an older tokenizer, scale Haiku 5.5 costs up by about 1.3×."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | 478 | +30% | 98 | 380 | [Q1 2021 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629321000091/q1-21xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 74,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | 478 | +30% | 109 | 136 | 234 | 23% | [Q1 2022 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000039/q1-22xpressrelease.htm), restated prior year |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 85,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2023 | 498 | +11% | 97 | 135 | 266 | 19% | [Q4 2023](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000017/q4-23xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2024 | 518 | +12% | 98 | 140 | 279 | 19% | [Q1 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000077/q1-24xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2024 | 522 | +12% | 98 | 136 | 288 | 19% | [Q2 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000141/q2-24xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 127,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Similarweb's 5.98M US Android DAU, if Android is 40% to 45% of US smartphones, implies roughly 13M to 15M US mobile DAU, or about 13% to 14% of UCAN MAU [derived]. That is lower than the global 25% and may reflect panel coverage. Neither is audited."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 285,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflict (survey vs ad reach)**: GWI is self-reported, internet users 16+, online panel; it runs far above ad reach in Latin America (Brazil 50.7% of internet users vs ad reach 22.8% of internet users; Mexico 46.0 vs 25.8; Colombia 45.6 vs 26.3) and close to it in the US (34.5 vs 29.9) and Germany (29.2 vs 29.0). For India, Indonesia, Turkey, Philippines the GWI share (33-40%) is the only public country-level signal, and GWI panels in those markets skew urban and connected, so it overstates population-level use."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 362,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: one trade article (JCK, Nov 2024, SNIPPET) reports women at 55%; the archived Pew table says 51%. The 2023 wave was 50% women / 19% men (SNIPPET, Pew Jan 2024 report). Use 51/19 for 2024."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 364,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Implied US gender mix among adult users: with 51% of women and 19% of men, about 73% of US adult Pinterest users are women (my arithmetic, assuming equal adult populations), consistent with DataReportal's US ad audience (71.4% female, 19.2% male, 9.4% unspecified) and at odds with eMarketer's 30.4% male (already in your notes) only modestly."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No consumer spend amounts or matched non-user/other-platform spending cohorts; snippet components unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A01",
      "metric": "Monthly active users by region",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "totals",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "UCAN": 106000000.0,
          "Europe": 157000000.0,
          "RoW": 377000000.0,
          "Global": 640000000.0
        },
        "unit": "MAU",
        "definition": "Monthly active users by region",
        "population": "Logged-in users active in 30 days, period end",
        "period": "2026-06-30"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2026 release",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "regional reconciliation in src/main.rs::deltas",
      "engine": {
        "scope": "Construction from current world allocations, not a stored simulated outcome",
        "current_anchors": {
          "UCAN": {
            "mau_millions": 106.00000000000001,
            "arpu_usd": 8.3
          },
          "Europe": {
            "mau_millions": 157.0,
            "arpu_usd": 1.35
          },
          "RoW": {
            "mau_millions": 377.0,
            "arpu_usd": 0.23
          }
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "reconciled",
      "observation_mapping": "Regional MAU is scaled to opening allocations; reported ARPU sets revenue as MAU × ARPU × measured days / 91. These anchors are imposed, not tested. Reported ARPU uses average period-start/end MAU, whereas this formula uses the opening end-period allocation, so implied dollars need not equal the reported revenue table exactly. A01's current quarter is the opening anchor. M01's Q2 regional ARPU is the anchor; its Q4 history and reported Global average-MAU ARPU are not reproduced by this construction.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm",
          "1.06e+08",
          "106 million",
          "106M",
          "1.57e+08",
          "157 million",
          "157M",
          "3.77e+08",
          "377 million",
          "377M",
          "6.4e+08",
          "640 million",
          "640M"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 16,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2026 | 640 | +11% | 106 | 157 | 377 | 17% | [Q2 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "106M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- UCAN has not regained the peak: 106M at Q2 2026 is 3% below Q1 2021. Europe passed its peak in Q1 2024 (140M). RoW passed its peak in Q1 2023 (240M)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 715,
            "terms": [
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Searches per MAU per month | 80B ÷ 600-640M | about 125-133 | The 80B counts related-Pin loads and visual search, not typed queries. The figure has been \"about 80B\" for four straight quarters |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 717,
            "terms": [
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Cumulative boards per MAU | 16B ÷ 640M | about 25 | Cumulative since launch, includes inactive accounts |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2150,
            "terms": [
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 1 | Global MAU, latest | 640M (Q2 2026), +11% YoY | high | Q2 2026 release, section 1.1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2151,
            "terms": [
              "106M",
              "157M",
              "377M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2 | MAU by region, latest | UCAN 106M, Europe 157M, RoW 377M | high | same |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 451,
            "terms": [
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| AI images on Pinterest | No measured user loss. Reported users kept rising through the 2025-26 coverage: 640M in Q2 2026, +11% | CR | 02 §1.1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/04-population-data-and-inference.md",
            "line": 132,
            "terms": [
              "106M",
              "157M",
              "377M",
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Pinterest MAU by region, Q2 2026: US & Canada 106M, Europe 157M, Rest of World 377M, total 640M | Logged-in users active in the last 30 days, company-reported | **Hard constraint** on regional totals |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/07-narrowing-assumptions.md",
            "line": 137,
            "terms": [
              "640M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Company cross-check (CR, DV, conditional).** \"80B+ searches\" a month over 640M users is about 125 per user per month, counting Related Pin loads. The engine makes about 32 steps per user per month (7.9 sessions x about 4.1 steps of 24 Pins). If one step is at most one counted search, the engine is short by about 4 times; at 21 sessions it makes about 86. This holds only under that mapping. A step may stand for several loads, and the 80B may include logged-out traffic. It is not an independent contradiction until the mapping is fixed."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/15-reality-tests.md",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "The input snapshot keeps every quarter's value, source URL, publication date and register labels. Revenue rows with no source cell reuse the same quarter's earnings-release URL from the MAU table, explicitly labelled as a shared release. The snapshot is from the compiled public record, not a fresh source read. Latest inputs are [Pinterest's Q2 2026 earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm), released 2026-08-04 as recorded in research/02."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/16-slice-1-spec.md",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Pinterest source boundaries, carried from `research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md` and `web/register.json`: WAU/MAU is READ in the project from the [FY2025 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm), as of 2025-12-31. Growth targets are rounded arithmetic from the [Q2 2025 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629325000195/q2-25xpressrelease.htm) and [Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm), reporting periods Q2 2025 and Q2 2026; latest release 2026-08-04 in the project. Outbound clicks come from the"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/17-what-customers-ask-for.md",
            "line": 744,
            "terms": [
              "640 million"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Any rate among users.** Every number here counts texts in complaint venues. None says what share of 640 million users wants anything."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Regional MAU is scaled to opening allocations; reported ARPU sets revenue as MAU × ARPU × measured days / 91. These anchors are imposed, not tested. Reported ARPU uses average period-start/end MAU, whereas this formula uses the opening end-period allocation, so implied dollars need not equal the reported revenue table exactly. A01's current quarter is the opening anchor. M01's Q2 regional ARPU is the anchor; its Q4 history and reported Global average-MAU ARPU are not reproduced by this construction."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A02",
      "metric": "US adults who ever use Pinterest",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2019": 0.28,
          "2021": 0.31,
          "2023": 0.35,
          "2024": 0.36,
          "2025": "not asked"
        },
        "unit": "share of US adults",
        "definition": "US adults who ever use Pinterest",
        "population": "US adults 18+, Pew panel (mode change in 2023)",
        "period": "2019-02 to 2024-06"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
        "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.2a"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No US adult ever-use survey answer; MAU is a rolling activity measure and the survey's historical level is not used as a population target.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
          "0.28",
          "28%",
          "0.31",
          "31%",
          "0.35",
          "35%",
          "0.36",
          "36%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 234,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 30,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "offplat_progress = [0.35, 0.5, 0.65]   # P(stage advances when the occasion goes to another app)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_surface = [0.35, 0.5, 0.65]          # P(a step moves to another surface)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.28"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.25, 0.3, 0.35], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "0.28"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.22, 0.28, 0.34], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 141,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = [0.35, 0.50, 0.65]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 204,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.35, 0.6, 0.9] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.9, 0.97, 1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 290,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.1, 0.2, 0.35]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1099,
            "terms": [
              "0.31"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.31"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2845,
            "terms": [
              "0.28"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.28"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 140,
            "terms": [
              "36%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J03.groups]]  # vol 0.03. Under equal weights this one term was 36% of the journey's November."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No US adult ever-use survey answer; MAU is a rolling activity measure and the survey's historical level is not used as a population target."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A03",
      "metric": "US adult Pinterest use by gender",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "women": 0.51,
          "men": 0.19
        },
        "unit": "share of group",
        "definition": "US adult Pinterest use by gender",
        "population": "US adults",
        "period": "2024-02/06"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
        "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.2a"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "Pew sex ratios set state allocation/profile inputs; world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py. These are inputs, not observed synthetic outcomes.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
          "0.51",
          "51%",
          "0.19",
          "19%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 85,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 182,
            "terms": [
              "0.19"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Four occasions, 0.19 together, under the 0.25 cap."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3371,
            "terms": [
              "0.19"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share = [0.09, 0.14, 0.19]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 85,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2023 | 498 | +11% | 97 | 135 | 266 | 19% | [Q4 2023](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000017/q4-23xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2024 | 518 | +12% | 98 | 140 | 279 | 19% | [Q1 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000077/q1-24xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2024 | 522 | +12% | 98 | 136 | 288 | 19% | [Q2 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000141/q2-24xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 345,
            "terms": [
              "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "2024 demographics, % of US adults in each group who ever use Pinterest. Survey 1 Feb-10 Jun 2024. Source: Pew fact sheet as archived 2 Jul 2025, https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/ (READ; values parsed from the archived page's tables)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 362,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: one trade article (JCK, Nov 2024, SNIPPET) reports women at 55%; the archived Pew table says 51%. The 2023 wave was 50% women / 19% men (SNIPPET, Pew Jan 2024 report). Use 51/19 for 2024."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 364,
            "terms": [
              "51%",
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Implied US gender mix among adult users: with 51% of women and 19% of men, about 73% of US adult Pinterest users are women (my arithmetic, assuming equal adult populations), consistent with DataReportal's US ad audience (71.4% female, 19.2% male, 9.4% unspecified) and at odds with eMarketer's 30.4% male (already in your notes) only modestly."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 592,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2021 | 847 | +20% | 689 | 132 | 25 | 19% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 594,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2022 | 666 | +9% | 542 | 102 | 22 | 19% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 597,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2023 | 603 | +5% | 486 | 93 | 24 | 19% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 599,
            "terms": [
              "19%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2023 | 763 | +11% | 618 | 114 | 31 | 19% |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Pew sex ratios set state allocation/profile inputs; world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py. These are inputs, not observed synthetic outcomes."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A04",
      "metric": "US adult Pinterest use by age",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "18-29": 0.43,
          "30-49": 0.43,
          "50-64": 0.33,
          "65+": 0.22
        },
        "unit": "share of group",
        "definition": "US adult Pinterest use by age",
        "population": "US adults",
        "period": "2024-02/06"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
        "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.2a"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "Pew age ratios set state allocation/profile inputs; world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
          "0.43",
          "43%",
          "0.33",
          "33%",
          "0.22",
          "22%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 122,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 29,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "occ_rate = [0.08, 0.14, 0.22]          # P(an active project gets worked on today)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.43"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.43, 0.55], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.22, 0.28, 0.34], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.33"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.33"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 991,
            "terms": [
              "0.43"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.43"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 466,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.22"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 484,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J11.groups]]  # vol 0.22, already under the 0.25 cap. research/11 J11: whether back to school belongs here at all is a modelling choice; set 0 to leave it out and rescale the rest."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 29,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "occ_rate = [0.08, 0.14, 0.22]          # P(an active project gets worked on today)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.22"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.43"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.43, 0.55], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Pew age ratios set state allocation/profile inputs; world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A05",
      "metric": "US adult Pinterest use by household income",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "<30K": 0.29,
          "30-70K": 0.34,
          "70-100K": 0.39,
          "100K+": 0.4
        },
        "unit": "share of group",
        "definition": "US adult Pinterest use by household income",
        "population": "US adults",
        "period": "2024-02/06"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
        "publisher": "Pew Research Center",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.2a"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No dollar household-income bands or income-conditioned ever-use output; socioeconomic band is an assumption.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://web.archive.org/web/20250702000000/https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/",
          "0.29",
          "29%",
          "0.34",
          "34%",
          "0.39",
          "39%",
          "0.4",
          "40%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 270,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.34"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 50,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "pin_share = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4]            # share of a user's project occasions that go to Pinterest"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 85,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.4, 0.5, 0.6], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 86,
            "terms": [
              "0.34"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.22, 0.28, 0.34], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No dollar household-income bands or income-conditioned ever-use output; socioeconomic band is an assumption."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A06",
      "metric": "US adults who use Pinterest",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.42,
        "unit": "share of US adults",
        "definition": "US adults who use Pinterest",
        "population": "US adults, Verasight panel n=1,509",
        "period": "2025-07/08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://data.verasight.io/ai/just-over-four-in-ten-americans-use-pinterest/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://data.verasight.io/ai/just-over-four-in-ten-americans-use-pinterest/",
        "publisher": "Verasight",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.2"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No Verasight-defined adult use observable or survey sample; source presence is not evidence of prior use.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://data.verasight.io/ai/just-over-four-in-ten-americans-use-pinterest/",
          "0.42",
          "42%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 27,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 320,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.42"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 121,
            "terms": [
              "https://data.verasight.io/ai/just-over-four-in-ten-americans-use-pinterest/",
              "42%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Share of US adults who say they use Pinterest: 42% | [S] Verasight, n=1,509, Jul-Aug 2025 | 2025 | [Verasight](https://data.verasight.io/ai/just-over-four-in-ten-americans-use-pinterest/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 399,
            "terms": [
              "42%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: YouGov's ~17% weekly vs Pew's 36% \"ever use\" and Verasight's 42% (your notes). These measure different things (weekly vs ever), and 17/36 = 47% is in the same range as Pinterest's WAU/MAU of 57-62%."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 441,
            "terms": [
              "42%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| May 2024 | \"42% of our global monthly user base is Gen Z\" | https://business.pinterest.com/en-gb/blog/gen-z-marketing-on-pinterest/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1071,
            "terms": [
              "42%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Gen Z | \"Gen Z is our fastest-growing audience, growing 20% year-over-year, compared to 8% growth of our overall base\"; \"42% are Gen Z\" | Sep 19 2023 | INVDAY |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1412,
            "terms": [
              "42%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 39 | 2021-11 | SearchSage query embeddings | \"11% increase in 35s+ click-throughs on product Pins in search, and a 42% increase in related searches\"; also \"11% increase in product long click throughs with an 8% increase in product impressions in search\" | A/B implied | n/s | PE/searchsage-learning-search-query-representations-at-pinterest-654f2bb887fc | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No Verasight-defined adult use observable or survey sample; source presence is not evidence of prior use."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A07",
      "metric": "Women share of users",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "10-K": "roughly two-thirds",
          "business_site": "70% women / 30% men",
          "ad_audience_oct_2025": {
            "female": 0.7,
            "male": 0.228,
            "unspecified": 0.072
          }
        },
        "unit": "share of users",
        "definition": "Women share of users",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "FY2025 10-K; Oct 2025; page Oct 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm ; https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest; Pinterest ad tools via DataReportal",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.3a"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "Ad-tool sex splits are used in world/regions.toml female_user profiles, as documented in world/regions.md. The company-wide two-thirds statement is a different component of this mixed row.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
          "70%",
          "30%",
          "0.7",
          "0.228",
          "22.8%",
          "0.072",
          "7.2%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 204,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 18,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "user_frac_agents = [0.7, 0.7, 0.7]     # share of each region's agents that start as users (sampling choice)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 21,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ambient_rate = [0.5, 0.7, 0.9]         # P(open with no project) = h * this"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 35,
            "terms": [
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_share = [0.001, 0.0075, 0.03]  # eligibility 2 to 10% of sessions x uptake 5 to 30% (research/03 table 3c)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 5,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "failed_effort = { value = [0.3, 0.7, 1.2], basis = \"assumed frustration per failed next step in existing patience units; research/16-slice-1-spec.md, 2026-10-12\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"reapply\", op = \"set\", value = [0.7, 0.85, 0.95] }]   # assumed: typing a sentence beats re-tapping filters"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 72,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"finish_p\", op = \"set\", value = [0.2, 0.45, 0.7] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 230,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.7, 0.9, 1.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 249,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.6] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 309,
            "terms": [
              "0.7"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_works = [0.7, 0.85, 0.98]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Ad-tool sex splits are used in world/regions.toml female_user profiles, as documented in world/regions.md. The company-wide two-thirds statement is a different component of this mixed row."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A08",
      "metric": "Gen Z share of users",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2023": "over 40%",
          "2024-05": 0.42,
          "2025": "over 50%",
          "2026-08": "over half"
        },
        "unit": "share of MAU",
        "definition": "Gen Z share of users",
        "population": "Global; Pinterest's Gen Z definition not published",
        "period": "2023-12 to 2026-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm ; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04 ; https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest",
        "origin": "new read of Q2 2026; rest in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No realized exact Gen Z birth-cohort share in this batch; six broad age bands cannot reproduce it.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm",
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
          "40%",
          "0.42",
          "42%",
          "50%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 162,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 165,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "label = \"50% fewer ads in search\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 320,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.42"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 49,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "q = [0.42, 0.52, 0.62]                 # P(a step shows something useful)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.42"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 4041,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "label = \"50% fewer ads in search\""
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 71,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| SimAB, ETH + Adobe (arXiv 2603.01024, 2026) https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.01024 | 47 historical web A/B tests | 67% overall winner accuracy, 83% on high-confidence cases **[V]**. Small n; 50% is chance. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 220,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Haiku 5.5 + Batch API | 50% off | **about $113** | \"Most batches finishing in less than 1 hour\"; max 100,000 requests per batch, so 10+ batches; results guaranteed within 24 h **[V]** https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/build-with-claude/batch-processing | 50% figure is from the batch docs; I did not see a Haiku 5.5-specific batch row |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 231,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Together** Llama 3.1 8B | $0.18 / $0.18; batch 50% off | about $297; **about $149 batch** | Batch is asynchronous, hours | **[S]** https://notcheapai.com/guides/openrouter-vs-together-ai-vs-fireworks-ai-inference-cost-per-1-billion-tokens-2026/ , https://dreaming.press/posts/batch-inference-50-percent-discount-open-model-serving.html |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No realized exact Gen Z birth-cohort share in this batch; six broad age bands cannot reproduce it."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A09",
      "metric": "Ad audience age mix (female + male + unspecified), share of adult ad reach",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "18-24": 0.316,
          "25-34": 0.276,
          "35-44": 0.163,
          "45-54": 0.106,
          "55-64": 0.074,
          "65+": 0.064
        },
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Ad audience age mix (female + male + unspecified), share of adult ad reach",
        "population": "Global ad audience 18+ (34 countries)",
        "period": "2025-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Digital 2026 Global Overview deck slide 591",
        "publisher": "Pinterest ad tools via DataReportal/Kepios",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.3b (sums are derived)"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said (ad tools)",
      "read_status": "RECON",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "Global ad-audience age mix sets age_user profiles (world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py); reconstruction remains unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "0.316",
          "31.6%",
          "0.276",
          "27.6%",
          "0.163",
          "16.3%",
          "0.106",
          "10.6%",
          "0.074",
          "7.4%",
          "0.064",
          "6.4%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 27,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 18,
            "terms": [
              "0.064"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = [0.0, 0.008, 0.064]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1045,
            "terms": [
              "0.276"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.276"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1710,
            "terms": [
              "0.163"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1896, 0.5638, 0.163, 0.0517, 0.0208, 0.0111]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 1564,
            "terms": [
              "0.163"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1896, 0.5638, 0.163, 0.0517, 0.0208, 0.0111]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 181,
            "terms": [
              "10.6%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Jan 2025 | 340M | 4.1% of world population; 5.3% of population 13+; 6.5% of 13+ excluding China; 5.2% of adults 18+; 6.1% of internet users; +32.5M (+10.6%) YoY | https://datareportal.com/essential-pinterest-stats | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 447,
            "terms": [
              "31.6%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: Gen Z (born 1997-2012, ages ~14-29 in 2026) at \"over 50%\" of users vs the ad audience, where 18-24 is 31.6% of adult reach and under-18 is ~13% of total reach. Reconciling requires a large share of 25-29s plus under-18s; the ad audience excludes most non-ad markets, where users skew younger (Indonesia: 85% of adult reach is 18-34). Pinterest does not publish its Gen Z definition or the exact share."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1226,
            "terms": [
              "7.4%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- \"Favourite\" social platform: Pinterest named by 1.5% of social media users in both editions (Instagram 16.5% then 16.6%; TikTok 7.4% then 8.1%). SV."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1454,
            "terms": [
              "16.3%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 71 | 2019-08 | Unified visual embedding replaces specialized embeddings in Lens | Closeuppers +16.3%; Repinner +26.7%; Clickthrougher +24.3%; Closeup +32.7%; Repin +46.7%; Clickthrough +35.0% | A/B | Lens users | https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1908.01707 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2053,
            "terms": [
              "10.6%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US 11-24 brand discovery | TikTok organic 27.8%, TikTok Shop 18.6%, Instagram organic 10.6% | same | same |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 309,
            "terms": [
              "6.4%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **General adoption anchors.** A median 6.4% of features account for 80% of clicks in software products (3P, [Pendo 2024](https://www.pendo.io/pendo-blog/feature-adoption-benchmarking/)). Ceiling cases with heavy placement: Airbnb wishlists reached 45% of users four months after a redesign (CR, [Fast Company 2012](https://www.fastcompany.com/1670890/how-airbnb-evolved-to-focus-on-social-rather-than-searches/)); half of Walmart app users have tried Sparky (CR, 2026-02). My working rule (AS): 1% to 5% of monthly actives for an opt-in feature with no promotion, 10% to 25% with prominent placement, under 1% for a setting."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/05-clef-benchmark.md",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.064"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Local flash 4-bit | 0.511 | 0.306 | 0.462 | 0.064 | 0.136 | 0.002 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/12-price-alerts.md",
            "line": 67,
            "terms": [
              "6.4%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Purchase after a back-in-stock alert | 11.8% of alerted shoppers buy within 90 days. 6.4% of all requests. Not incremental. | same | 2026-07-01 | Vendor |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Global ad-audience age mix sets age_user profiles (world/regions.md and tools/build_regions.py); reconstruction remains unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A10",
      "metric": "US ad reach",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "users": 96900000.0,
          "share_of_population": 0.279,
          "share_of_eligible_audience": 0.326,
          "share_of_internet_users": 0.299,
          "female": 0.714,
          "male": 0.192,
          "unspecified": 0.094,
          "yoy_change": 0.014
        },
        "unit": "mixed",
        "definition": "US ad reach",
        "population": "US, Pinterest ad tools",
        "period": "late 2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-united-states-of-america"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-united-states-of-america",
        "publisher": "DataReportal/Kepios from Pinterest ad tools",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said (ad tools)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "US ad reach and sex split set the US/Canada allocation and US female profile (world/regions.md); not an independent audience check.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-united-states-of-america",
          "9.69e+07",
          "96.9 million",
          "96.9M",
          "0.279",
          "27.9%",
          "0.326",
          "32.6%",
          "0.299",
          "29.9%",
          "0.714",
          "71.4%",
          "0.192",
          "19.2%",
          "0.094",
          "9.4%",
          "0.014",
          "1.4%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 47,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 24,
            "terms": [
              "0.014"
            ],
            "excerpt": "habit_decay = [0.004, 0.008, 0.014]    # per idle day"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2269,
            "terms": [
              "0.326"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.326"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3331,
            "terms": [
              "0.014"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.014"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3456,
            "terms": [
              "0.014"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1606, 0.5466, 0.1893, 0.0656, 0.0239, 0.014]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 24,
            "terms": [
              "0.014"
            ],
            "excerpt": "habit_decay = [0.004, 0.008, 0.014]    # per idle day"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3019,
            "terms": [
              "0.014"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1606, 0.5466, 0.1893, 0.0656, 0.0239, 0.014]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "0.094"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **APS** (arXiv 2605.27419, 2026-05) https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27419 | 10M | LLM queried only for adaptive prototypes, tail agents and audit agents | \"381.1-fold reduction\" in calls; final-round JSD 0.094 **against the full-LLM reference** **[V]** | — |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 170,
            "terms": [
              "96.9M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Ratio check (my arithmetic): Oct 2025 ad reach 351.4M vs company MAU 578M (Q2 2025, the figure DataReportal sets beside it) = 61%. US ad reach 96.9M vs UCAN MAU 105M (Q4 2025 call) = 92%, with Canada's 11.1M reach on top, so UCAN ad reach (108M) slightly exceeds UCAN MAU."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 258,
            "terms": [
              "96.9M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflict**: for the same country, Affect's 18+ lower bound is 66-78% of DataReportal's all-ages midpoint (US 66.0 vs 96.9M; Germany 17.75 vs 22.7M; UK 11.08 vs 15.5M; Japan 6.08 vs 9.19M; Ireland 0.845 vs 1.28M; Greece 1.56 vs 2.51M). Netherlands is the exception (9.60 vs 10.5M, 91%), which again suggests the Dutch number is inflated at source. If you use Indonesia 16.1M, scale consistently: it is a floor for adults, not an MAU."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 364,
            "terms": [
              "71.4%",
              "19.2%",
              "9.4%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Implied US gender mix among adult users: with 51% of women and 19% of men, about 73% of US adult Pinterest users are women (my arithmetic, assuming equal adult populations), consistent with DataReportal's US ad audience (71.4% female, 19.2% male, 9.4% unspecified) and at odds with eMarketer's 30.4% male (already in your notes) only modestly."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1518,
            "terms": [
              "1.4%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 125 | 2026-05 | Real-time context in sequential ads candidate generation | Related Pins \"ads relevance metric improved by 1.08%\"; \"2x more ads candidates retrieved being delivered to impression\"; \"~0.7% measurable lift\" in ROAS; \"~1.4% ROAS lift\" in top countries | A/B implied | related pins ads | PE/enhancing-ad-relevance-integrating-real-time-context-into-sequential-recommender-models-bc3a2f9b682e | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2153,
            "terms": [
              "96.9M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 4 | Country shares inside each region | Ad reach, Oct 2025, 34 countries: US 96.9M, Brazil 42.2M, Mexico 28.5M, Germany 22.7M, France 18.3M, UK 15.5M. Use as weights, rescale to regional MAU | med for the 34; low elsewhere | DataReportal Digital 2026, section 2 |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "US ad reach and sex split set the US/Canada allocation and US female profile (world/regions.md); not an independent audience check."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A11",
      "metric": "Internet users 16+ using Pinterest monthly",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "worldwide": 0.251,
          "usa": 0.345,
          "brazil": 0.507,
          "mexico": 0.46,
          "uk": 0.258,
          "germany": 0.292
        },
        "unit": "share of internet users 16+",
        "definition": "Internet users 16+ using Pinterest monthly",
        "population": "GWI online panel, 55 countries",
        "period": "Q2 2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/690ae2b869210/top-10-countries-by-pinterest-user-share-q2-2025"
        ],
        "supplied": "Digital 2026 Global Overview deck slide 586; https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/690ae2b869210/top-10-countries-by-pinterest-user-share-q2-2025",
        "publisher": "GWI via DataReportal",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.1e"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "RECON",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "GWI country survey shares allocate unlisted countries through an assumed deflator (world/regions.md); reconstruction remains unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/690ae2b869210/top-10-countries-by-pinterest-user-share-q2-2025",
          "0.251",
          "25.1%",
          "0.345",
          "34.5%",
          "0.507",
          "50.7%",
          "0.46",
          "46%",
          "0.258",
          "25.8%",
          "0.292",
          "29.2%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 39,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1387,
            "terms": [
              "0.292"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.292"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2287,
            "terms": [
              "0.292"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.292"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 264,
            "terms": [
              "https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/690ae2b869210/top-10-countries-by-pinterest-user-share-q2-2025",
              "25.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "\"% of internet users aged 16+ who say they used Pinterest at least once in the past month.\" Source: Digital 2026 Global Overview deck, slide 586 (GWI Q2 2025), text copy at https://studylib.net/doc/28353893/meltwater---digital-2026-global-overview-report. Evidence: **RECON**. The slide text lists countries and values in reversed order; pairing them puts \"Worldwide\" on 25.1%, which matches the separately stated global figure, and the top 10 match an independent transcription (READ: https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/technology-telecommunications/statistics/690ae2b869210/top-10-countries-by-pinterest-user-share-q2-2025). Ranks 11-55 rest on my "
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 285,
            "terms": [
              "50.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflict (survey vs ad reach)**: GWI is self-reported, internet users 16+, online panel; it runs far above ad reach in Latin America (Brazil 50.7% of internet users vs ad reach 22.8% of internet users; Mexico 46.0 vs 25.8; Colombia 45.6 vs 26.3) and close to it in the US (34.5 vs 29.9) and Germany (29.2 vs 29.0). For India, Indonesia, Turkey, Philippines the GWI share (33-40%) is the only public country-level signal, and GWI panels in those markets skew urban and connected, so it overstates population-level use."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 389,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US reach, ages 18-24 | 46% | page as of Oct 2026 (footnoted source not shown in fetched text) | CR | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 575,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2019 | 400 | +46% | 350 | 50 | 13% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 786,
            "terms": [
              "46%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | +22% | +46% | SEC: 10-Q Q1 2021; CALL:2021Q1 | Call: ad load \"actually ticked down in the first quarter year-over-year\" in the US and globally |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 960,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 to Q4 2018 | CTR | 0.46%, 0.48%, 0.62%, 1.0% | n/a | TP | 4C Insights | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1443,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 65 | 2026-07 | MESH unified retrieval on Related Pins | \"+5.5% lift in fresh-item repins\" (abstract; the body of the paper gives +5.5% for fresh impressions and +4.9% for fresh repins); Sessions > 5 mins +0.46%; Successful Sessions (SSv2) +0.19%; Total time spent in App +0.45%; time spent Related Pins +0.55% (table; the paper's text says +0.51%), Search +0.49%, Home Feed +0.41% | A/B | n/s | https://arxiv.org/html/2607.12392 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1455,
            "terms": [
              "29.2%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 72 | 2020-06 | Shop the Look detection model upgrades | +FPN: Scene Closeups +51.6%, Product Click-throughs +29.2%; +MUL +CLN: +16.4%, +3.2% (each relative to preceding row) | A/B | n/s | https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2006.10866 | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "GWI country survey shares allocate unlisted countries through an assumed deflator (world/regions.md); reconstruction remains unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A12",
      "metric": "US reach by age and income (company)",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "18-24": 0.46,
          "25-34": 0.4,
          "35-44": 0.39,
          "households_over_150K": 0.4
        },
        "unit": "share of group",
        "definition": "US reach by age and income (company)",
        "population": "US (source footnote not shown)",
        "period": "page as of 2026-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No dollar household income or age-band population reach output matching the company claims.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/audience/",
          "0.46",
          "46%",
          "0.4",
          "40%",
          "0.39",
          "39%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 212,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "0.46"
            ],
            "excerpt": "adv = [0.22, 0.34, 0.46]               # P(stage advances | useful step)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 50,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "pin_share = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4]            # share of a user's project occasions that go to Pinterest"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 80,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.2, 0.3, 0.4], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 85,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.4, 0.5, 0.6], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 93,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.4, 0.5], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "0.4"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No dollar household income or age-band population reach output matching the company claims."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A13",
      "metric": "Women 16-24 using Pinterest monthly",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "value": 0.447,
          "tiktok_same_group": 0.473
        },
        "unit": "share of internet users in group",
        "definition": "Women 16-24 using Pinterest monthly",
        "population": "GWI, worldwide",
        "period": "published 2025-07-23"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2025-july-global-statshot"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2025-july-global-statshot",
        "publisher": "GWI via DataReportal",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No women-16–24 monthly-use numerator/denominator; snippet figure unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2025-july-global-statshot",
          "0.447",
          "44.7%",
          "0.473",
          "47.3%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 4,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/09-session-crosscheck.md",
            "line": 126,
            "terms": [
              "0.447"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| `ctx_gain` | 1.40 | 0.380 / 0.447 | +42.1% / +42.1% | +29.8% / +29.9% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/16-slice-1-spec.md",
            "line": 119,
            "terms": [
              "0.473"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F01 | -0.027 [-0.473, +0.575] | +0.282 [-0.889, +0.812] | +0.282 [-0.889, +0.812] | +0.238 [-0.596, +0.996] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 106,
            "terms": [
              "0.473"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| E07 | -1.103 [-2.201, -0.473] | -1.108 [-2.081, -0.451] | -0.005 | -0.966 [-1.581, -0.517] | -0.958 [-1.522, -0.479] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 173,
            "terms": [
              "0.473"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| E07 | -1.103 [-2.201, -0.473] | -1.108 [-2.081, -0.451] | -0.005 | -0.966 [-1.581, -0.517] | -0.958 [-1.522, -0.479] |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No women-16–24 monthly-use numerator/denominator; snippet figure unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A14",
      "metric": "Pinterest users who visit for funny or entertaining content",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.213,
        "unit": "share of platform users",
        "definition": "Pinterest users who visit for funny or entertaining content",
        "population": "GWI internet users 16+",
        "period": "published 2026 (mid-year update)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report",
        "publisher": "GWI via DataReportal",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "survey",
      "supplied_label": "survey",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No self-reported entertainment-reason observable; journey labels are not answers to this survey.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report",
          "0.213",
          "21.3%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 3,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 185,
            "terms": [
              "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **~Apr 2026** | **~579M** | After Pinterest added 38 countries to its ad tools (39 to 77 geographies). Not comparable with earlier values | https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report (published 22 Apr 2026) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 487,
            "terms": [
              "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Pinterest app MAU growth | +20% between Feb 2024 and Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | TP (Similarweb) | https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/23-reality-gap-sensitivity.md",
            "line": 172,
            "terms": [
              "0.213"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| C08 | +5.226 [+2.382, +9.835] | +5.315 [+2.406, +9.719] | +6.039 [+3.230, +10.221] | +0.115 [+0.061, +0.236] | +0.099 [+0.051, +0.213] |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No self-reported entertainment-reason observable; journey labels are not answers to this survey."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A15",
      "metric": "Global ad reach and ad-tool countries",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "ad_reach_apr_2026": 579000000.0,
          "countries_in_ad_tools": 77,
          "ad_reach_oct_2025_34_countries": 351400000.0
        },
        "unit": "users / countries",
        "definition": "Global ad reach and ad-tool countries",
        "population": "Pinterest ad planning tools",
        "period": "2025-10; 2026-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report",
        "publisher": "DataReportal/Kepios",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said (ad tools)",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No actual ad-tool reach/country-availability output; country allocations use an older 34-country input, not the 77-country claim.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report",
          "5.79e+08",
          "579 million",
          "579M",
          "3.514e+08",
          "351.4 million",
          "351.4M"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 9,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 149,
            "terms": [
              "351.4M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "1. **The only public per-country \"user\" numbers are ad-reach figures from Pinterest's ad tools, republished by DataReportal/Kepios.** Latest full country set: **October 2025, 34 countries + 3 US territories, 351.4M total**. Statista, World Population Review, Hootsuite and SocialPilot all republish this same dataset; they are not independent sources."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 151,
            "terms": [
              "579M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "3. In early 2026 Pinterest added 38 countries to its ad-planning tools (77 total) and DataReportal's global ad-reach figure jumped to **~579M** (April 2026). **I could not find the per-country breakdown for the 38 new countries** in any public page."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 170,
            "terms": [
              "351.4M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Ratio check (my arithmetic): Oct 2025 ad reach 351.4M vs company MAU 578M (Q2 2025, the figure DataReportal sets beside it) = 61%. US ad reach 96.9M vs UCAN MAU 105M (Q4 2025 call) = 92%, with Canada's 11.1M reach on top, so UCAN ad reach (108M) slightly exceeds UCAN MAU."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 184,
            "terms": [
              "351.4M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Oct 2025** | **351.4M** | 4.3% of total population; 5.8% of internet users; +2M (+0.6%) QoQ; +13M (+3.8%) YoY. Reach aged 18+ = 305M (so ~46M, 13%, is under 18) | deck slides 589, 415, 416 | READ (deck text) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 185,
            "terms": [
              "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report",
              "579M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **~Apr 2026** | **~579M** | After Pinterest added 38 countries to its ad tools (39 to 77 geographies). Not comparable with earlier values | https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report (published 22 Apr 2026) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 189,
            "terms": [
              "351.4M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "This is the complete set of countries for which DataReportal published Pinterest ad reach in Digital 2026 (34 countries; sum 350.4M; plus Puerto Rico 0.90M, Guam 0.042M, US Virgin Islands 0.022M = 351.4M, which matches the global total). A top-40 cannot be built from this source: only 34 countries exist."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 431,
            "terms": [
              "351.4M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "These are shares of adult (18+) reach. Under-18s are about 13% of total reach on top of this (351.4M total vs 305M aged 18+, Oct 2025). DataReportal: average age of the ad audience \"somewhere between 25 and 34\"; largest single cell is women 18-24."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 487,
            "terms": [
              "https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Pinterest app MAU growth | +20% between Feb 2024 and Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | TP (Similarweb) | https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-mid-year-global-update-report | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 549,
            "terms": [
              "579M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "2. Per-country ad reach after the early-2026 expansion to 77 countries (the ~579M set), including India, Indonesia, Turkey, Philippines, South Korea in DataReportal form. Only the 34-country October 2025 set is public in text; the DataReportal Pinterest page is still on January 2025 data."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No actual ad-tool reach/country-availability output; country allocations use an older 34-country input, not the 77-country claim."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "A16",
      "metric": "Episodic logged-in users beyond MAU",
      "category": "audience",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "'hundreds of millions of logged-in users come to Pinterest episodically' (on top of 450M MAU)",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Episodic logged-in users beyond MAU",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2023-02-06 (Q4 2022 call)"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q4 2022 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "A lapsed-user pool is assumed, but no unique episodic logged-in cohort beyond MAU is exported.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf",
          "450"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 10,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "450"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2022 | 450 | +4% | 95 | 124 | 231 | 21% | [Q4 2022 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629323000021/q4-22xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 470,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app users' share of impressions and revenue | \"over 80%\" | Q4 2022 call (6 Feb 2023) | CR | https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1077,
            "terms": [
              "450"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Episodic users | \"On top of our 450 million MAUs, hundreds of millions of logged in users come to Pinterest episodically\" | Feb 6 2023 | CALL:2022Q4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1390,
            "terms": [
              "450"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 22 | 2025 (Q4'25 call) | OmniSage applied to retrieval and ranking | \"450 basis point lift in site-wide saves\" | n/s | sitewide | IR/doc_financials/2025/q4/PINS-Q4-2025-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1626,
            "terms": [
              "450"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Interaction or non-additivity between launches.** Call-level bp numbers and paper-level % numbers for the same system differ (PinFM +1.20% sitewide saves in the paper vs \"240 basis point\" on the call; OmniSage \"over 1.7%\" vs \"450 basis point\"), and nothing explains the gap."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/15-reality-tests.md",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| More ad inventory | +30% | ad_impressions: +10.4508%, range +5.9652% to +13.3233% | match / inside | [2022-23](https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf); READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/ads.md",
            "line": 1679,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| ads-095 / 2022-Q4 | Whole page optimization / dynamic ad load — Pinterest varies the mix of ads and organic Pins according to context and commercial intent. People can see more paid content where Pinterest’s system predicts it will be useful. | changed: Subsequent iterations exist in tried.json; current placement algorithm was not independently inspected. | little_reaction. Pinterest continued discussing whole-page optimization in its Q2 2024 earnings call as a way to increase relevant ad supply in high-commercial-intent moments. Ad impression growth also reflected engagement and other ad-stack changes. These disclosures do not establish ho"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/ads.md",
            "line": 1765,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| ads-091 / 2022-10-17 | Pinterest API for Conversions global launch — The modern Conversions API sends advertiser events directly to Pinterest from servers. It supports reporting and optimization while complementing tag and mobile partner data. | live: Current Help Center describes web, in-app and offline server events, integrations, deduplication and event validation. | mixed. Current Pinterest Help supports web, app and offline events, direct or partner integration, testing, event quality and event-ID deduplication. The 2022 global launch followed an earlier batch API documented in a 2020 company guide. The launch’s attributed-conversion i"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/features/creation.md",
            "line": 349,
            "terms": [
              "https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **creation-059** Shop similar recommendations on creator videos | 2021-10-20 | Creators could enable automatic shopping recommendations on Idea Pins. Visual search then matched visible items to similar Product Pins. | changed / 2026-10-18 | unknown | [source](https://newsroom.pinterest.com/news/pinterest-introduces-takes-and-new-ways-to-watch-discover-and-shop/) (READ); [source](https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf) (READ) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/notes-2026-10-12/F-company.md",
            "line": 248,
            "terms": [
              "450"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Agentic and multimodal query understanding in search backend | [Manager II, ML Search](https://www.pinterestcareers.com/jobs/7239260/manager-ii-machine-learning-search/) lists \"query recommendations, multimodal search, agentic search, multimodal query understanding, and query based module generation and ranking\". Caveat: the same posting says \"more than 450 million monthly active Pinterest users\", so parts of the text are about three years old | Medium |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A lapsed-user pool is assumed, but no unique episodic logged-in cohort beyond MAU is exported."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M01",
      "metric": "ARPU by region, quarterly",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "totals",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "Q2_2026": {
            "Global": 1.86,
            "UCAN": 8.3,
            "Europe": 1.35,
            "RoW": 0.23
          },
          "Q4_2025": {
            "Global": 2.16,
            "UCAN": 9.41,
            "Europe": 1.59,
            "RoW": 0.27
          }
        },
        "unit": "USD per average MAU per quarter",
        "definition": "ARPU by region, quarterly",
        "population": "Pinterest-defined ARPU (average of period-start and period-end MAU)",
        "period": "Q4 2025; Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm",
        "publisher": "Pinterest releases",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.2"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "regional reconciliation in src/main.rs::deltas",
      "engine": {
        "scope": "Construction from current world allocations, not a stored simulated outcome",
        "current_anchors": {
          "UCAN": {
            "mau_millions": 106.00000000000001,
            "arpu_usd": 8.3
          },
          "Europe": {
            "mau_millions": 157.0,
            "arpu_usd": 1.35
          },
          "RoW": {
            "mau_millions": 377.0,
            "arpu_usd": 0.23
          }
        }
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "reconciled",
      "observation_mapping": "Regional MAU is scaled to opening allocations; reported ARPU sets revenue as MAU × ARPU × measured days / 91. These anchors are imposed, not tested. Reported ARPU uses average period-start/end MAU, whereas this formula uses the opening end-period allocation, so implied dollars need not equal the reported revenue table exactly. A01's current quarter is the opening anchor. M01's Q2 regional ARPU is the anchor; its Q4 history and reported Global average-MAU ARPU are not reproduced by this construction.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000102/q2-26xpressrelease.htm",
          "1.86",
          "8.3",
          "1.35",
          "0.23",
          "23%",
          "2.16",
          "9.41",
          "1.59",
          "0.27",
          "27%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 540,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "1.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lapsed_factor = [1.2, 1.35, 1.5]       # accounts with a habit, relative to MAU"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 16,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 34,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 52,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 88,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 106,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 142,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 160,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 178,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 196,
            "terms": [
              "8.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "arpu = 8.3"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "Regional MAU is scaled to opening allocations; reported ARPU sets revenue as MAU × ARPU × measured days / 91. These anchors are imposed, not tested. Reported ARPU uses average period-start/end MAU, whereas this formula uses the opening end-period allocation, so implied dollars need not equal the reported revenue table exactly. A01's current quarter is the opening anchor. M01's Q2 regional ARPU is the anchor; its Q4 history and reported Global average-MAU ARPU are not reproduced by this construction."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M02",
      "metric": "Annual ARPU",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2025_global": 7.21,
          "2025_UCAN": 30.84
        },
        "unit": "USD per user per year",
        "definition": "Annual ARPU",
        "population": "Pinterest-defined",
        "period": "FY2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260212059914/en/Pinterest-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Delivers-14-Revenue-Growth-and-Record-Users"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260212059914/en/Pinterest-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Delivers-14-Revenue-Growth-and-Record-Users",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q4 2025 release (UCAN from a secondary write-up)",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.2"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Annual reported ARPU uses a different year/average-user denominator; multiplying a current quarterly anchor by four would not reproduce annual ARPU.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260212059914/en/Pinterest-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Delivers-14-Revenue-Growth-and-Record-Users",
          "7.21",
          "30.84"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 662,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260212059914/en/Pinterest-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Delivers-14-Revenue-Growth-and-Record-Users",
              "7.21",
              "30.84"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Annual ARPU [C]:** 2019 $3.81 (US $12.07, International $0.54). 2020 $4.26 (US $15.34, Intl $0.88). 2021 $5.79 (US $21.98, Intl $1.59; restated UCAN $21.07, Europe $3.03, RoW $0.29). 2022 $6.36 (UCAN $24.38, Europe $3.23, RoW $0.43). 2025 $7.21 global ([Q4 2025 release](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260212059914/en/Pinterest-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Delivers-14-Revenue-Growth-and-Record-Users)) and UCAN $30.84 (secondary: Ricky Sutton, 2026-03-04, who sets it against Meta US at about $230). 2023 and 2024 annual ARPU by region were not pulled; they are in the Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 releases."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Annual reported ARPU uses a different year/average-user denominator; multiplying a current quarterly anchor by four would not reproduce annual ARPU."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M03",
      "metric": "Ad impressions, YoY",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "Q2_2024": 0.35,
          "Q3_2024": 0.41,
          "Q4_2024": 0.43,
          "Q1_2025": 0.49,
          "Q2_2025": 0.55,
          "Q3_2025": 0.54,
          "Q4_2025": 0.41,
          "Q1_2026": 0.24,
          "Q2_2026": 0.16
        },
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Ad impressions, YoY",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "Q2 2024 to Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04 (Q2 2026, READ this run); others in research/02 §3.3",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read of Q2 2026; rest research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.ads",
      "engine": {
        "median": 910499.3017266691,
        "min": 450061.52418699604,
        "max": 1389563.7047043622,
        "p5": 626933.4969567603,
        "p95": 1260857.5905001378,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Ad-impression YoY growth by quarter cannot be scored against a single 150-day baseline total without a previous-year arm.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "0.35",
          "35%",
          "0.41",
          "41%",
          "0.43",
          "43%",
          "0.49",
          "49%",
          "0.55",
          "55%",
          "0.54",
          "54%",
          "0.24",
          "24%",
          "0.16",
          "16%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 362,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 30,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "offplat_progress = [0.35, 0.5, 0.65]   # P(stage advances when the occasion goes to another app)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "p_surface = [0.35, 0.5, 0.65]          # P(a step moves to another surface)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "lost_ctx = [0.4, 0.55, 0.7]            # usefulness multiplier when constraints are not applied"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 78,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.45, 0.55, 0.65], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.25, 0.3, 0.35], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.43",
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "high_income = { value = [0.3, 0.43, 0.55], basis = \"assumed upper band conditional on not lower; no measured Pinterest income joint\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 92,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mobile_web = { value = [0.55, 0.65, 0.75], basis = \"assumed mobile share among primary web entrants; device page views are not user counts\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.55"
            ],
            "excerpt": "boost_share = [0.10, 0.18, 0.25]   # recent iPhones among all users (0.30 to 0.55 of US and Canada in research/03; lower worldwide, assumed)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 141,
            "terms": [
              "0.35"
            ],
            "excerpt": "value = [0.35, 0.50, 0.65]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Ad-impression YoY growth by quarter cannot be scored against a single 150-day baseline total without a previous-year arm."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M04",
      "metric": "Ad pricing, YoY",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "Q2_2024": -0.11,
          "Q3_2024": -0.17,
          "Q4_2024": -0.18,
          "Q1_2025": -0.22,
          "Q2_2025": -0.25,
          "Q3_2025": -0.24,
          "Q4_2025": -0.19,
          "Q1_2026": -0.05,
          "Q2_2026": 0.01
        },
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Ad pricing, YoY",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "Q2 2024 to Q2 2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04 (Q2 2026); others research/02 §3.3",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "new read of Q2 2026; rest research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.implied_ecpm_usd",
      "engine": {
        "median": 1.5564820587617305,
        "min": 0.2695428325041639,
        "max": 9.515784358024787,
        "p5": 0.39823675512992057,
        "p95": 8.71985412809848,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 1.5564820587617305,
          "RoW": 0.2695428325041639,
          "UCAN": 9.515784358024787
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "USD per 1,000 ad impressions"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Historical change in price cannot be inferred from a current implied eCPM level; objective and region mix also differ.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "-0.11",
          "-11%",
          "-0.17",
          "-17%",
          "-0.18",
          "-18%",
          "-0.22",
          "-22%",
          "-0.25",
          "-25%",
          "-0.24",
          "-24%",
          "-0.19",
          "-19%",
          "-0.05",
          "-5%",
          "0.01"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 163,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 53,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "buy_given_click = [0.01, 0.03, 0.06]   # P(a click-out to a merchant ends in a purchase). Assumed: typical e-commerce conversion from referral traffic"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 56,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 59,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 71,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3654,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1785, 0.5724, 0.1686, 0.05, 0.0205, 0.01]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J01.groups]]  # vol 0.01, raised: the head term \"summer outfits\" is not served, so the fit sees almost no summer volume."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 293,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.01"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 301,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J06.groups]]  # vol 0.01 for this term alone. Set to 2 x Halloween: it stands in for the unserved Christmas decor terms. ASSUMED."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 308,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.01"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Historical change in price cannot be inferred from a current implied eCPM level; objective and region mix also differ."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M05",
      "metric": "Ad load direction",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "rising every quarter from mid-2022 to mid-2025 ('12th consecutive quarter', Q2 2025); no level ever published",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Ad load direction",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2025-08-07"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2025 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.ads / baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.22573479649478978,
        "min": 0.16308633495762456,
        "max": 0.2715759315278485,
        "p5": 0.17053581279120855,
        "p95": 0.2574172294813184,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A modelled ad/organic-impression ratio is not evidence of twelve consecutive real-world quarterly increases.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter",
          "2022",
          "2025"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1931,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 108,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed uptake range and USD 5.99 price; same mechanism and payer selection as X16, which implements the F16 ask. Heavy users likelier to pay; bad links and AI remain. No non-payer backlash or costs modelled. Precedent only: research/03 section 3.3, 2025 court filing READ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.630.0.pdf , exact filing date not recorded. A12 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ .\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 2,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Public targets: Q2 2026 / Q2 2025 MAU, published 2026-08-04."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 103,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest 10-K 2025: weekly actives are 62% of monthly; register inputs: measured\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026; register inputs: measured; derived annual growth rounded to whole percent\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Pinterest: 1.7B outbound clicks a month (Q4 2025 call) over about 620M monthly users; register inputs: measured; derived using Q4 2025 MAU, rounded to one decimal\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 4515,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed uptake range and USD 5.99 price; same mechanism and payer selection as X16, which implements the F16 ask. Heavy users likelier to pay; bad links and AI remain. No non-payer backlash or costs modelled. Precedent only: research/03 section 3.3, 2025 court filing READ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.630.0.pdf , exact filing date not recorded. A12 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ .\""
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "2025"
            ],
            "excerpt": "1. LLM personas reproduce **aggregate rankings and directions** reasonably well and **individual behaviour, variance, subgroup differences and effect magnitudes** badly. The best independent 2025–2026 studies are markedly more negative than the 2023–2024 headline papers."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A modelled ad/organic-impression ratio is not evidence of twelve consecutive real-world quarterly increases."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M06",
      "metric": "Ad load ceiling analogy",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "high-intent analogues (search engines, retailers) run 'ad loads in the 50%-60% plus' range; Pinterest 'a long way away'",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Ad load ceiling analogy",
        "population": "Management statement",
        "period": "2023-09-19"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest Investor Day, 2023-09-19 (transcript cited as INVDAY in research/02 §3B)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Investor Day",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 1.2"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.ads / baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.22573479649478978,
        "min": 0.16308633495762456,
        "max": 0.2715759315278485,
        "p5": 0.17053581279120855,
        "p95": 0.2574172294813184,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "A management analogy about competitors is no measured Pinterest ad-load level; share of all Pins and ads/organic Pins also differ.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "50%",
          "60%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 81,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 165,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "label = \"50% fewer ads in search\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 4041,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "label = \"50% fewer ads in search\""
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 71,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| SimAB, ETH + Adobe (arXiv 2603.01024, 2026) https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.01024 | 47 historical web A/B tests | 67% overall winner accuracy, 83% on high-confidence cases **[V]**. Small n; 50% is chance. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 220,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Haiku 5.5 + Batch API | 50% off | **about $113** | \"Most batches finishing in less than 1 hour\"; max 100,000 requests per batch, so 10+ batches; results guaranteed within 24 h **[V]** https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/build-with-claude/batch-processing | 50% figure is from the batch docs; I did not see a Haiku 5.5-specific batch row |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 231,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Together** Llama 3.1 8B | $0.18 / $0.18; batch 50% off | about $297; **about $149 batch** | Batch is asynchronous, hours | **[S]** https://notcheapai.com/guides/openrouter-vs-together-ai-vs-fireworks-ai-inference-cost-per-1-billion-tokens-2026/ , https://dreaming.press/posts/batch-inference-50-percent-discount-open-model-serving.html |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 232,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **Fireworks** 8B class | about $0.20 / $0.20; batch 50% off | about $330; about $165 batch | — | **[S]** https://www.gmicloud.ai/en/blog/llm-endpoint-provider-compare |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 362,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: one trade article (JCK, Nov 2024, SNIPPET) reports women at 55%; the archived Pew table says 51%. The 2023 wave was 50% women / 19% men (SNIPPET, Pew Jan 2024 report). Use 51/19 for 2024."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 443,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K; Q4 2025 call) | \"over 50% of our user base\" | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629326000021/pins-20251231.htm ; https://s204.q4cdn.com/369458543/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/PINS-Q4-2025-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 445,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Oct 2026 | \"making up 50% of our global user base\" | https://business.pinterest.com/audience/ | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 447,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Conflict: Gen Z (born 1997-2012, ages ~14-29 in 2026) at \"over 50%\" of users vs the ad audience, where 18-24 is 31.6% of adult reach and under-18 is ~13% of total reach. Reconciling requires a large share of 25-29s plus under-18s; the ad audience excludes most non-ad markets, where users skew younger (Indonesia: 85% of adult reach is 18-34). Pinterest does not publish its Gen Z definition or the exact share."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 556,
            "terms": [
              "50%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "9. Pinterest's definition of Gen Z and the exact share behind \"over 50%\"."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 822,
            "terms": [
              "50%",
              "60%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2023 | Ceiling: \"it can be a multiple of where we are now\" (wording not found in the sources opened; the nearest statement found is \"significant headroom to continue to grow ad load\"); high-intent analogs (search engines, retailers) show \"ad loads in the 50%-60% plus kind of range when the user has intent ... we are a long way away from that ... getting to that would be multi-year\" | INVDAY |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A management analogy about competitors is no measured Pinterest ad-load level; share of all Pins and ads/organic Pins also differ."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M07",
      "metric": "Observed ad share in one clean session",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "over 40% of the first 73 Pins for one query were ads",
        "unit": "share of Pins",
        "definition": "Observed ad share in one clean session",
        "population": "One query ('ballet pumps'), one session",
        "period": "2025-12-24"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.wired.com/story/pinterst-ai-slop-content/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.wired.com/story/pinterst-ai-slop-content/",
        "publisher": "WIRED",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.4"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.ads / baseline_totals.imps",
      "engine": {
        "median": 0.22573479649478978,
        "min": 0.16308633495762456,
        "max": 0.2715759315278485,
        "p5": 0.17053581279120855,
        "p95": 0.2574172294813184,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Paired raw global baseline totals across stored worlds; not region-reconciled totals"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "One query's first 73 Pins is not a platform mean; the clean-session observation did not set the separate one-account audit prior.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.wired.com/story/pinterst-ai-slop-content/",
          "40%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 82,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 127,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Similarweb's 5.98M US Android DAU, if Android is 40% to 45% of US smartphones, implies roughly 13M to 15M US mobile DAU, or about 13% to 14% of UCAN MAU [derived]. That is lower than the global 25% and may reflect panel coverage. Neither is audited."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 285,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Conflict (survey vs ad reach)**: GWI is self-reported, internet users 16+, online panel; it runs far above ad reach in Latin America (Brazil 50.7% of internet users vs ad reach 22.8% of internet users; Mexico 46.0 vs 25.8; Colombia 45.6 vs 26.3) and close to it in the US (34.5 vs 29.9) and Germany (29.2 vs 29.0). For India, Indonesia, Turkey, Philippines the GWI share (33-40%) is the only public country-level signal, and GWI panels in those markets skew urban and connected, so it overstates population-level use."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 390,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US reach, ages 25-34 | 40% | same | CR | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 392,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| US households with income > $150K reached | 40% | same | CR | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 440,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Dec 2023 (FY2023 10-K) | \"Gen Z users represent over 40% of our user base\" | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629324000018/pins-20231231.htm | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 442,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Dec 2024 (FY2024 10-K) | \"over 40%\" | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629325000022/pins-20241231.htm | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 691,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.wired.com/story/pinterst-ai-slop-content/",
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Ad load, outside measurement | Over 40% of the first 73 Pins for \"ballet pumps\" in a clean session were ads | 2025-12-24 | [WIRED](https://www.wired.com/story/pinterst-ai-slop-content/). One query, one session |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 845,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2022 | Shopping ads revenue growth | +50% YoY; mobile deep linking was 40% of shopping ads revenue during Black Friday / Cyber Monday | CALL:2022Q4 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 846,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2023 | Shopping ads revenue growth | \"40% plus year-on-year\" | CALL:2023Q1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 848,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2023 | Video ads | \"nearly 40%\" of revenue; \"nearly half of video revenue ... assigned to lower funnel objectives\" | INVDAY |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 852,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Start 2023 / Aug 2023 / Q1 2024 | API for Conversions revenue coverage | 14% / 28% / 40% | INVDAY; CALL:2023Q3; CALL:2024Q1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1072,
            "terms": [
              "40%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Gen Z | \"more than 40% of our user base now\" | Feb 8 2024 | CALL:2023Q4 |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. One query's first 73 Pins is not a platform mean; the clean-session observation did not set the separate one-account audit prior."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M08",
      "metric": "International share of users vs monetisation",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "users_outside_UCAN": "more than 80%",
          "share_of_monetisation": "roughly 20%",
          "reported_non_UCAN_revenue_Q2_2026": 0.25
        },
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "International share of users vs monetisation",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Pinterest (Communacopia)",
        "origin": "new read; also in research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "International user/revenue shares partly derive from reconciled anchors; management's 'monetisation' is not defined as revenue. Mixed definitions cannot be scored independently.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
          "80%",
          "20%",
          "0.25",
          "25%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 293,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "save_p = [0.15, 0.25, 0.38]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_load = [0.12, 0.18, 0.25]           # ads per organic impression (never published)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 55,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "rev_gamma = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5]           # revenue ~ (click-outs)^gamma; research/03 value chain puts clicks to revenue near a quarter"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 74,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "income_purchase = { value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5], basis = \"assumed score increment per socioeconomic band after click; baseline click-weighted normalization preserves aggregate conversion\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 79,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "children = { value = [0.25, 0.3, 0.35], basis = \"assumed share living with children; no place profile imported\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 87,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 94,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "low_income = { value = [0.25, 0.33, 0.42], basis = \"assumed lower socioeconomic band within place; no dollar income imputation\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "boost_share = [0.10, 0.18, 0.25]   # recent iPhones among all users (0.30 to 0.55 of US and Canada in research/03; lower worldwide, assumed)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.25"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 54,
            "terms": [
              "20%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "recall = [0.001, 0.005, 0.02]   # daily chance an alert fires AND brings the person back, for people with alerts on. From analogues (research/12): an alert fires on about 1 to 15% of days, 6 to 20% of alerts get a click. Was 1 to 8%, which fits \"fires\" only"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. International user/revenue shares partly derive from reconciled anchors; management's 'monetisation' is not defined as revenue. Mixed definitions cannot be scored independently."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M09",
      "metric": "US Pinterest ad revenue and US ARPU (eMarketer)",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "us_ad_revenue_2025": 2950000000.0,
          "us_ad_revenue_2027": 3780000000.0,
          "us_arpu_2025": 32.67,
          "us_arpu_2027": 40.16,
          "global_ad_revenue_2025": 4240000000.0
        },
        "unit": "USD",
        "definition": "US Pinterest ad revenue and US ARPU (eMarketer)",
        "population": "US (eMarketer user definition, not Pinterest MAU)",
        "period": "forecast published 2026-01-21"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth",
        "publisher": "eMarketer",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Third-party US-only annual audience/revenue estimates and future projections differ from the UCAN quarterly ARPU anchor and engine window.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.emarketer.com/content/pinterest-leans-commerce--ctv--c-suite-appointments-growth",
          "2.95e+09",
          "2.95 billion",
          "2.95B",
          "2950 million",
          "2950M",
          "3.78e+09",
          "3.78 billion",
          "3.78B",
          "3780 million",
          "3780M",
          "32.67",
          "40.16",
          "4.24e+09",
          "4.24 billion",
          "4.24B",
          "4240 million",
          "4240M"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Third-party US-only annual audience/revenue estimates and future projections differ from the UCAN quarterly ARPU anchor and engine window."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M10",
      "metric": "Average CPM",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "pinterest_2025": 4.67,
          "yoy": 0.16,
          "meta_2025": 8.19
        },
        "unit": "USD per 1,000 impressions",
        "definition": "Average CPM",
        "population": "One agency's client spend",
        "period": "2025, as of 2025-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.guptamedia.com/social-media-ads-cost"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.guptamedia.com/social-media-ads-cost",
        "publisher": "Gupta Media",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 2.2"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.implied_ecpm_usd",
      "engine": {
        "median": 1.5564820587617305,
        "min": 0.2695428325041639,
        "max": 9.515784358024787,
        "p5": 0.39823675512992057,
        "p95": 8.71985412809848,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 1.5564820587617305,
          "RoW": 0.2695428325041639,
          "UCAN": 9.515784358024787
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "USD per 1,000 ad impressions"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "research/06 explicitly records increasing repeat visits after research/07 found implied US CPM too high against agency benchmarks. Gupta is in that benchmark set; this is prior-informed, not independent. Engine implied eCPM is regional anchor revenue divided by region-reconciled ad impressions, times 1,000; both are on a 91-day basis. A largely US client-spend sample does not match all UCAN advertisers or global revenue/inventory mix.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.guptamedia.com/social-media-ads-cost",
          "4.67",
          "0.16",
          "16%",
          "8.19"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 82,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 162,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1241, 0.1158, 0.16, 0.1708, 0.1321, 0.2972]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 411,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.16"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 42,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "mismatch = [0.08, 0.16, 0.25]          # P(products shown when ideas wanted), early stages"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 274,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1241, 0.1158, 0.16, 0.1708, 0.1321, 0.2972]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3341,
            "terms": [
              "0.16"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share = [0.12, 0.16, 0.22]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 119,
            "terms": [
              "16%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| DAU +11% US and +16% global, minutes per day +11%, sessions per day +9% YoY; Pin detail pages 53.4% of time (51.1% a year earlier), main feed 19.4% (21%) | [T] Sensor Tower Q2 2026 as reported by PPC Land. Underlying report not retrieved | 2026-08-03 | [PPC Land](https://ppc.land/meta-apps-lose-5-of-downloads-as-reels-takes-half-of-instagram-ad-slots/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 304,
            "terms": [
              "16%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Semrush's Bangladesh share (16%, 99.4% desktop) is not credible as human usage**; it appeared at 7.6% then doubled, and is almost entirely desktop. Treat as bot/proxy traffic and exclude. With Bangladesh removed, US share is about 26%."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 382,
            "terms": [
              "16%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Last Pew teen figure: 2014-15, **22% of teens 13-17 use \"online pinboards (like Pinterest and Polyvore)\"; girls 33%, boys 11%; ages 15-17 about 25%, 13-14 16%; girls 15-17 38%** (SNIPPET: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2015/04/09/mobile-access-shifts-social-media-use-and-other-online-activities/). Eleven years old and not Pinterest-specific."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 578,
            "terms": [
              "16%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2020 | 443 | +58% | 374 | 69 | 16% |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "research/06 explicitly records increasing repeat visits after research/07 found implied US CPM too high against agency benchmarks. Gupta is in that benchmark set; this is prior-informed, not independent. Engine implied eCPM is regional anchor revenue divided by region-reconciled ad impressions, times 1,000; both are on a 91-day basis. A largely US client-spend sample does not match all UCAN advertisers or global revenue/inventory mix."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M11",
      "metric": "Video share of engagement vs revenue",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "engagement": ">10%",
          "revenue": ">30%",
          "time_watching_video_q2_2022": 0.1
        },
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Video share of engagement vs revenue",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2022-2023"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest Q2 2022 to Q1 2023 calls (research/02 §3B 1.3)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 1.3"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No video-specific time, engagement or revenue splits.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "10%",
          "30%",
          "0.1"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 269,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "casual_floor = [0.1, 0.2, 0.3]         # project-driven visits a user makes regardless of habit (arrives from a search engine)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "10%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 55,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "rev_gamma = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5]           # revenue ~ (click-outs)^gamma; research/03 value chain puts clicks to revenue near a quarter"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 62,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "stage = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.5], basis = \"assumed: each reached stage raises conversion conditional on a click\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "constraint = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.6], basis = \"assumed: a stated constraint makes the clicked choice more actionable\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 64,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "saved_item = { value = [0.1, 0.3, 0.6], basis = \"assumed: an item saved on the same useful step is a more considered click\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 74,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "income_purchase = { value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5], basis = \"assumed score increment per socioeconomic band after click; baseline click-weighted normalization preserves aggregate conversion\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 35,
            "terms": [
              "10%",
              "30%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_share = [0.001, 0.0075, 0.03]  # eligibility 2 to 10% of sessions x uptake 5 to 30% (research/03 table 3c)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 95,
            "terms": [
              "10%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "label = \"Ad load up 10%, and Pinterest ships the bundle (mechanism)\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 81,
            "terms": [
              "0.1"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"patience\", op = \"add\", value = [-0.8, -0.4, -0.1] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No video-specific time, engagement or revenue splits."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M12",
      "metric": "Revenue per outbound click",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": 0.26,
        "unit": "USD per click",
        "definition": "Revenue per outbound click",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "Q4 2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "derived: $1,319M / (1.7B x 3)",
        "publisher": "derived from company figures",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.5"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "baseline_totals.clicks",
      "engine": {
        "median": 6470.517093669674,
        "min": 4724.287879053154,
        "max": 9584.994068434753,
        "p5": 4884.350429901819,
        "p95": 8494.320991741453,
        "n": 48,
        "scope": "Raw weighted millions of events/activity-days across worlds over the entire measured window, before regional reconciliation"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Derived revenue per click remains unverified; company advertiser clicks and engine all click-outs may differ. Revenue is also imposed by construction.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "0.26",
          "26%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 45,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3529,
            "terms": [
              "0.26"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.26"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 58,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2019 | 335 | +26% | 88 | 247 | [Q4 2019 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000011/pins-ex992x20191231.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 59,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2020 | 367 | +26% | 90 | 277 | [Q1 2020 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629320000072/pins-ex992x20200331.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 608,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2025 | 1,319 | +14% | 979 | 245 | 96 | 26% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 609,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2026 | 1,008 | +18% | 750 | 186 | 72 | 26% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 628,
            "terms": [
              "0.26"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | 1.04 | 3.99 | 0.26 | 15x |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 714,
            "terms": [
              "0.26"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Revenue per outbound click | $1,319M ÷ (1.7B × 3 months), Q4 2025 | about $0.26 | Not a CPC. Revenue also comes from impression-priced and conversion-priced ads |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 798,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2023 | +26% | -12% | SEC: 10-Q Q3 2023; CALL:2023Q3 | 9M 2023: +30% / -17% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1179,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2020 | 1,692.7 | 442.8 | 26% | 30.3 | 1.8% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1239,
            "terms": [
              "26%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Apr 2016 | 26% | 28% | | 68% | |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1438,
            "terms": [
              "0.26"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 60 | 2025-04 | PinRec in Related Pins | Fulfilled Sessions +0.21%; Time Spent +0.38%; Site-wide Grid Clicks +0.76%; Sitewide Saves +0.26%; cross-surface: search \"fulfillment increases by +0.42% and saves by +0.39%\" | A/B | n/s | AX/2504.10507 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1440,
            "terms": [
              "0.26"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 62 | 2025-12 | Cold-start fixes in Related Pins ranking (\"Warmer for Less\") | Fresh Pins grid-click / save: Residual +4.48 / +5.98; ScoreReg +4.07 / +7.88; Mixup +3.19 / +2.45; All +9.68 / +9.62 (%). All Pins: +0.26 / -0.32 (save neutral) | A/B, ~12 million users per group | n/s | AX/2512.17277 | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Derived revenue per click remains unverified; company advertiser clicks and engine all click-outs may differ. Revenue is also imposed by construction."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "M13",
      "metric": "Revenue growth, quarterly",
      "category": "monetisation",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "Q3_2025": 0.17,
          "Q4_2025": 0.14,
          "Q1_2026": 0.18,
          "Q2_2026": 0.18,
          "Q3_2026_guide": "13-15%"
        },
        "unit": "YoY",
        "definition": "Revenue growth, quarterly",
        "population": "Global, reported",
        "period": "Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 guidance"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest releases and calls",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Reported quarterly YoY revenue and guidance cannot be scored from reconciled opening economics; no historical quarterly revenue output here.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "0.17",
          "17%",
          "0.14",
          "14%",
          "0.18",
          "18%",
          "15%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 240,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 29,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "occ_rate = [0.08, 0.14, 0.22]          # P(an active project gets worked on today)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.18"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_load = [0.12, 0.18, 0.25]           # ads per organic impression (never published)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 11,
            "terms": [
              "0.18"
            ],
            "excerpt": "boost_share = [0.10, 0.18, 0.25]   # recent iPhones among all users (0.30 to 0.55 of US and Canada in research/03; lower worldwide, assumed)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 54,
            "terms": [
              "15%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "recall = [0.001, 0.005, 0.02]   # daily chance an alert fires AND brings the person back, for people with alerts on. From analogues (research/12): an alert fires on about 1 to 15% of days, 6 to 20% of alerts get a click. Was 1 to 8%, which fits \"fires\" only"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2431,
            "terms": [
              "0.17"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.17"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 268,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 288,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 328,
            "terms": [
              "0.18"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J07.groups]]  # vol 0.18, trimmed to pay for the head terms."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 330,
            "terms": [
              "0.14"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.14"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 338,
            "terms": [
              "0.18"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J07.groups]]  # vol 0.18, trimmed: that share is of the SERVED terms, and the Christmas gift terms are missing from them."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 375,
            "terms": [
              "0.17"
            ],
            "excerpt": "weight = 0.17"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 444,
            "terms": [
              "0.17"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J10.groups]]  # vol 0.17, trimmed to pay for trip preparation."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Reported quarterly YoY revenue and guidance cannot be scored from reconciled opening economics; no historical quarterly revenue output here."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z01",
      "metric": "Q4 share of annual revenue",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2023": 0.321,
          "2024": 0.317,
          "2025": 0.312
        },
        "unit": "share",
        "definition": "Q4 share of annual revenue",
        "population": "Global revenue",
        "period": "FY2023-FY2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "derived from research/02 §3.1 (Pinterest releases)",
        "publisher": "derived from company figures",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.1"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "An annual revenue share needs a calendar-year revenue series; this batch spans 150 days and imposes opening revenue. Arithmetic row unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "0.321",
          "32.1%",
          "0.317",
          "31.7%",
          "0.312",
          "31.2%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 8,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1405,
            "terms": [
              "0.321"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.321"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1765,
            "terms": [
              "0.321"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.321"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1227,
            "terms": [
              "31.7%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Share of days on which a monthly active user of the Android app opened it (a DAU/MAU proxy): Pinterest 27.2% (Jul to Sep 2023) and 27.5% (Nov 2024); Instagram 61.6% and 61.9%; TikTok 61.7% and 64.4%; Facebook 64.1% and 63.2%; YouTube 63.7% and 63.5%; Reddit 31.7% (2024 only). TP (data.ai / Sensor Tower). Caveat: in the extracted PDF text these percentages sit under a \"time spent\" slide heading, while the note on the slide describes active days; I am reading them as the active-days chart. Verify against the slide."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/09-session-crosscheck.md",
            "line": 127,
            "terms": [
              "0.321"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| `reapply` | 0.30 | 0.321 / 0.376 | +44.1% / +44.9% | +31.4% / +32.3% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/16-slice-1-spec.md",
            "line": 151,
            "terms": [
              "0.317"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| D02 | -1.210 [-5.407, +0.317] | -0.092 [-0.205, -0.021] | -0.553 [-1.201, -0.126] | -0.237 [-1.335, +0.749] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/21-grounding-round.md",
            "line": 138,
            "terms": [
              "0.312"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| F11 | +0.126 [+0.029, +0.303] | +0.126 [+0.041, +0.312] | +0.001 | +0.003 [+0.000, +0.007] | +0.003 [+0.000, +0.006] |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/26-source-spot-check.md",
            "line": 8,
            "terms": [
              "32.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Checked all **70 sampled claims** from seed **20261019** against their supplied citations on **2026-10-19**. Result: **32 SUPPORTED, 1 PARTLY, 5 NOT FOUND, 30 UNREACHABLE, 2 MISATTRIBUTED**. Among 40 reachable claims, the specified error rate is **8/40 = 20.0%**, with a **Wilson 90% interval of 11.7%–32.1%, assuming independent draws**."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/26-source-spot-check.md",
            "line": 30,
            "terms": [
              "32.1%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| All | 8/40 | 20.0% | 11.7%–32.1% |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. An annual revenue share needs a calendar-year revenue series; this batch spans 150 days and imposes opening revenue. Arithmetic row unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z02",
      "metric": "UCAN ARPU seasonal index (quarter / year mean)",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2023": [
            0.8,
            0.93,
            1.01,
            1.26
          ],
          "2024": [
            0.83,
            0.94,
            1.0,
            1.23
          ],
          "2025": [
            0.85,
            0.94,
            0.99,
            1.22
          ]
        },
        "unit": "index Q1-Q4",
        "definition": "UCAN ARPU seasonal index (quarter / year mean)",
        "population": "UCAN",
        "period": "2023-2025"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "derived from research/02 §3.2",
        "publisher": "derived from company figures",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3.2"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "No Q1–Q4 ARPU trajectory in the stored batch; multiplying opening ARPU is not a seasonal test. Arithmetic row unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "0.8",
          "80%",
          "0.93",
          "93%",
          "1.01",
          "1.26",
          "0.83",
          "83%",
          "0.94",
          "94%",
          "1.23",
          "0.85",
          "85%",
          "0.99",
          "99%",
          "1.22"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 437,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "clickout_p = [0.35, 0.58, 0.85]         # P(click-out | useful step) at full commercial intent in the comparing stage; fitted to reported outbound clicks"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_place = { value = [0.8, 0.95, 1.0], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact lives in the same place; other contacts stay within reporting region\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "friend_age = { value = [0.4, 0.6, 0.8], basis = \"assumed probability a nominated contact shares the same six-band age group; other contacts have a different band\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.8",
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 91,
            "terms": [
              "0.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.86, 0.92], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 45,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 46,
            "terms": [
              "1.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "churn_mult = [1.0, 1.01, 1.04]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 57,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 58,
            "terms": [
              "1.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "churn_mult = [1.0, 1.01, 1.04]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 69,
            "terms": [
              "0.85"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_mult = [0.65, 0.85, 0.95]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 70,
            "terms": [
              "1.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "churn_mult = [1.0, 1.01, 1.04]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No Q1–Q4 ARPU trajectory in the stored batch; multiplying opening ARPU is not a seasonal test. Arithmetic row unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z03",
      "metric": "Europe MAU in Q2",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "2022": -3000000.0,
          "2023": -4000000.0,
          "2024": -4000000.0,
          "2025": -2000000.0,
          "2026": -2000000.0
        },
        "unit": "QoQ change",
        "definition": "Europe MAU in Q2",
        "population": "Europe MAU",
        "period": "2022-2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "derived from research/02 §1.1",
        "publisher": "derived from company figures",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.1"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Historical Q2 Europe changes are not a 150-day current baseline path. Arithmetic row unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "-3e+06",
          "-3 million",
          "-3M",
          "-4e+06",
          "-4 million",
          "-4M",
          "-2e+06",
          "-2 million",
          "-2M"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 104,
            "terms": [
              "-3M",
              "-4M",
              "-2M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Seasonality: Europe MAU falls in every Q2 (2022 -3M, 2023 -4M, 2024 -4M, 2025 -2M, 2026 -2M). UCAN is flat in Q2. Global MAU has risen quarter on quarter in every quarter since Q3 2022."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Historical Q2 Europe changes are not a 150-day current baseline path. Arithmetic row unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z04",
      "metric": "Global MAU quarter-on-quarter",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "rose in every quarter from Q3 2022 to Q2 2026 (12 consecutive record quarters)",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Global MAU quarter-on-quarter",
        "population": "Global MAU",
        "period": "2022-2026"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04"
        ],
        "supplied": "research/02 §1.1; https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
        "publisher": "Pinterest releases",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "The current batch has no reported-quarter history with which to test consecutive historical MAU records.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-08-04",
          "2022",
          "2026"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 3022,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 12,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "start_date = \"2026-10-19\"   # day 0, when scenarios switch on; seasons follow the calendar from here"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 110,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, US and Canada\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"Reported global MAU growth Q2 2025 to Q2 2026\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 36,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "checkout_ratio = [0.30, 0.70, 1.00]     # Walmart's in-chat purchases converted at a third of click-out (2026); 1.0 = as good as the merchant's site"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 108,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed uptake range and USD 5.99 price; same mechanism and payer selection as X16, which implements the F16 ask. Heavy users likelier to pay; bad links and AI remain. No non-payer backlash or costs modelled. Precedent only: research/03 section 3.3, 2025 court filing READ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.630.0.pdf , exact filing date not recorded. A12 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ .\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 120,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 133,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"all ranges assumed; switch-time rare lockout among existing users with at least 30 saves. Same deterministic people are hit in slow and fast arms. Access is blocked during recovery; lower saving lasts through the window. No per-save ban hazard, removed-pin inventory or review staffing cost. A03 READ 2026-06-13 https://www.reddit.com/r/Pinterest/comments/1u52y64/if_you_were_in_charge_of_pinterest_how_would_you/ . Not a measured ban rate.\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 2,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Public targets: Q2 2026 / Q2 2025 MAU, published 2026-08-04."
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 15,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/growth-prior-proposal.toml",
            "line": 23,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "basis = \"assumed admissible acquisition bounds from old .008 midpoint, widened using research/02 2025Q2-2026Q2 regional growth published by 2026-08-04; net growth does not identify gross adoption\""
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 1,
            "terms": [
              "2026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "# Slice 1 ranges chosen on 2026-10-12. Public accounts identify failures, not their rates."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The current batch has no reported-quarter history with which to test consecutive historical MAU records."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z05",
      "metric": "Search peak in the week after Christmas",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "Q5 (Dec 26-31) is 'one of the most active periods of the year'; searches 'spike to one of the year's highest peaks'; eCPMs lower",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Search peak in the week after Christmas",
        "population": "Global (implied)",
        "period": "2025-11-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Search and price peaks by week need dated query/CPM outputs; only window totals and regional implied price means are exported.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/q5-on-pinterest-your-bonus-marketing-moment/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Search and price peaks by week need dated query/CPM outputs; only window totals and regional implied price means are exported."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z06",
      "metric": "Holiday planning timing",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "activity_spikes_from": "September",
          "self_gifting_wishlists": "build from October, peak November",
          "gifts_for_others": "surge in December",
          "gift_search_frequency_oct_dec": "one every six seconds (SNIPPET, Social Media Today)"
        },
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Holiday planning timing",
        "population": "Pinterest users",
        "period": "2025-09-08; 2026-07-30"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/",
          "https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/pinterest-shares-holiday-marketing-tips-2025/759551/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/ ; https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/ ; https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/pinterest-shares-holiday-marketing-tips-2025/759551/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ (except gift-search rate)",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Holiday wishlist/search timing is not a window-total save count or a search-share seasonal prior; no dated matching outputs.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/festive-gifting-pinterest/",
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/",
          "https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/pinterest-shares-holiday-marketing-tips-2025/759551/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 187,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- \"holiday activity spikes as early as September\" ([Pinterest Business, 2026-07-30](https://business.pinterest.com/blog/holiday-2026-starts-now-a-pinterest-guide-to-success/))."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Holiday wishlist/search timing is not a window-total save count or a search-share seasonal prior; no dated matching outputs."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z07",
      "metric": "Gifts journey seasonal amplitude (share of search)",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "amplitude_mid": 1.9,
          "range": [
            1.3,
            2.8
          ],
          "peak_months": [
            5,
            11,
            12
          ]
        },
        "unit": "(peak month / mean month) - 1",
        "definition": "Gifts journey seasonal amplitude (share of search)",
        "population": "US search share, Pinterest Trends",
        "period": "2024-10 to 2026-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/ (undocumented endpoint; research/11)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Trends data, project calculation",
        "origin": "research/11-seasonality.md §7"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived from company data",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "The research/11 Trends amplitudes and peak months are imported by tools/build_world.py into journey seasonal priors; the arithmetic is not independently verified here.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/",
          "1.9",
          "1.3",
          "2.8"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 83,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 32,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"adv\", op = \"mul\", value = [1.1, 1.3, 1.6] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 296,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [1.03, 1.12, 1.3] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 22,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_again = [0.6, 0.7, 0.8]          # P(another visit the same day), falling by a fifth each time. App panels: 2.5 to 2.8 sessions per active day (research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3438,
            "terms": [
              "1.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "season_amp = 1.9"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3858,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"adv\", op = \"mul\", value = [1.1, 1.3, 1.6] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 4172,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [1.03, 1.12, 1.3] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "### 1.3 Named failure modes, with evidence"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "2.8"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Squoosh, \"The Judge Knows When It Knows\" (arXiv 2608.07517, 2026) https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07517 | 330 real web conversion A/B tests, multimodal LLM judging screenshots | \"Mostly no.\" Cohen's κ = 0.141 [0.034, 0.248]; on statistically significant tests κ = 0.108 with a CI spanning zero. A 2.8× more expensive model was no better. Judges agree with each other at κ = 0.74–0.88 but with outcomes at about 0.2: \"reproducibility must never be mistaken for validity.\" 44% of the \"ground-truth\" labels came from non-significant tests **[V]**. |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 124,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Pattern.** The credible architectures are grounded in real individual-level data (interviews, a client's first-party data, production traffic). Pure demographic prompting is the weakest design, and section 1.3 shows why: demographics explain little individual variance. A vendor testing Jev on its own panel put it well: \"Same profiles in, much the same picture out\" **[V]** https://www.flashinsight.io/blog/jev-for-market-research."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 239,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Haiku 5.5 uses the newer tokenizer, which produces about 30% more tokens for the same text than Haiku 4.5 **[V]**. If the 1.5K estimate was made with an older tokenizer, scale Haiku 5.5 costs up by about 1.3×."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 251,
            "terms": [
              "1.3"
            ],
            "excerpt": "  - Cross-cultural: 87% of the Saudi–US gap in English, 62% in Arabic (section 1.3)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "The research/11 Trends amplitudes and peak months are imported by tools/build_world.py into journey seasonal priors; the arithmetic is not independently verified here."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z08",
      "metric": "Travel journey January spike",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "amplitude_mid": 0.9,
          "term_travel_january_vs_average": 3.5
        },
        "unit": "ratio",
        "definition": "Travel journey January spike",
        "population": "US search share",
        "period": "2024-10 to 2026-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/ (research/11)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Trends data, project calculation",
        "origin": "research/11-seasonality.md §7"
      },
      "label": "arithmetic",
      "supplied_label": "derived from company data",
      "read_status": "DERIVED",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "The research/11 Trends travel seasonal input is imported by tools/build_world.py; the arithmetic is not independently verified here.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://trends.pinterest.com/metrics/",
          "0.9",
          "90%",
          "3.5"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 148,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 20,
            "terms": [
              "3.5"
            ],
            "excerpt": "habit_shape = [2.5, 3.5, 5.0]          # h = u^shape; higher = more casual users"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 21,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ambient_rate = [0.5, 0.7, 0.9]         # P(open with no project) = h * this"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 77,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.8, 0.85, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 84,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "app = { value = [0.78, 0.84, 0.9], basis = \"assumed regional primary entry mix; global app MAU about 85 percent in research/02 1.2; no regional split public\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 123,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "tolerance = 0.9"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 18,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 19,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"p_carry\", op = \"set\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 0.97] }, { param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.5, 0.65, 0.8] }]  # a stale constraint is carried"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 25,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"mismatch\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.1, 0.25, 0.5] }, { param = \"ad_load\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.4, 0.7, 0.9] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 26,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.8, 0.9, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.9, 0.95, 1.0] }]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 64,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "harm_effects = [{ param = \"q\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.6, 0.75, 0.9] }]     # the words are misread and the grid gets worse"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 204,
            "terms": [
              "0.9"
            ],
            "excerpt": "effects = [{ param = \"slop\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.35, 0.6, 0.9] }, { param = \"supply\", op = \"mul\", value = [0.9, 0.97, 1] }]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "The research/11 Trends travel seasonal input is imported by tools/build_world.py; the arithmetic is not independently verified here."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z09",
      "metric": "Ad price drop from Q4 to Q1",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": -0.206,
        "unit": "QoQ change in CPM",
        "definition": "Ad price drop from Q4 to Q1",
        "population": "Brand Networks advertisers, 19B impressions",
        "period": "Q4 2017 to Q1 2018"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://digiday.com/marketing/pinterest-attracting-buyers-low-cpms-less-competition/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://digiday.com/marketing/pinterest-attracting-buyers-low-cpms-less-competition/",
        "publisher": "Brand Networks via Digiday",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 2.2"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "unfitted.implied_ecpm_usd",
      "engine": {
        "median": 1.5564820587617305,
        "min": 0.2695428325041639,
        "max": 9.515784358024787,
        "p5": 0.39823675512992057,
        "p95": 8.71985412809848,
        "n": 3,
        "scope": "Across three regional means, each averaged over stored worlds; NOT a world uncertainty interval",
        "by_region": {
          "Europe": 1.5564820587617305,
          "RoW": 0.2695428325041639,
          "UCAN": 9.515784358024787
        },
        "world_range_available": false,
        "unit": "USD per 1,000 ad impressions"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Quarter-to-quarter price change is not one window's implied eCPM level.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://digiday.com/marketing/pinterest-attracting-buyers-low-cpms-less-competition/",
          "-0.206",
          "-20.6%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 959,
            "terms": [
              "https://digiday.com/marketing/pinterest-attracting-buyers-low-cpms-less-competition/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2018 | CPM | $3.67 aggregate average | n/a | TP | Advertisers buying through 4C Insights | https://digiday.com/marketing/pinterest-attracting-buyers-low-cpms-less-competition/ (Mar 13 2019) | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 961,
            "terms": [
              "-20.6%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 | CPM seasonality | -20.6% from Q4 to Q1 | n/a | TP | Brand Networks, 19 billion impressions Q2 2015 to Q3 2018 | same | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Quarter-to-quarter price change is not one window's implied eCPM level."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "Z10",
      "metric": "Halloween search lead time",
      "category": "seasonality",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "searches growing as early as August",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Halloween search lead time",
        "population": "Pinterest users",
        "period": "2025-10-08"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Business",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Halloween search lead time needs dated query counts; snippet figure unverified and no matching export.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/03-journeys-success-features.md",
            "line": 40,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Halloween | \"#2 most searched holiday on Pinterest, only behind Christmas\"; 52 million users engaged with Halloween content in 2024; Gen Z over 50% of Halloween searches | 2025-10-08 | CR | [Pinterest Business](https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/11-seasonality.md",
            "line": 190,
            "terms": [
              "https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- Halloween is \"the #2 most searched holiday on Pinterest, only behind Christmas\" ([Pinterest Business, 2025-10-08](https://business.pinterest.com/blog/scare-up-spooky-seasonal-success/))."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Halloween search lead time needs dated query counts; snippet figure unverified and no matching export."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R01",
      "metric": "App install retention",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "D1": 0.118,
          "D7": 0.024,
          "D30": 0.013,
          "D90": 0.009,
          "D365": 0.005
        },
        "unit": "share of installs active on day N",
        "definition": "App install retention",
        "population": "iOS + Android installs, global, AppMagic model",
        "period": "to 2026-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
        "publisher": "AppMagic via Udonis blog",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §2.5b"
      },
      "label": "third party",
      "supplied_label": "third-party estimate",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "kept_share",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.8170719826803925,
        "scope": "Mean retention of starting monthly-user cohort; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "Install-cohort day-N activity is not rolling 30-day retention of existing monthly users after 150 days; lapses and returns count in kept_share.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-apps/pinterest",
          "0.118",
          "11.8%",
          "0.024",
          "2.4%",
          "0.013",
          "1.3%",
          "0.009",
          "0.9%",
          "0.005",
          "0.5%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 138,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 12,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "open_boost = [0.001, 0.005, 0.020] # relative extra browsing visits for those people (assumed; no usage data exists for any partner)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 24,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "paid_share = [0.0001, 0.001, 0.005] # Meta's EU ad-free uptake was about 0.007% (court filing); bundles reach 3 to 5%"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 106,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "paid_share = [0.0001, 0.001, 0.005]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 117,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "access_share = [0.001, 0.005, 0.02]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 130,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "access_share = [0.001, 0.005, 0.02]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/mechanisms.toml",
            "line": 54,
            "terms": [
              "0.005"
            ],
            "excerpt": "recall = [0.001, 0.005, 0.02]   # daily chance an alert fires AND brings the person back, for people with alerts on. From analogues (research/12): an alert fires on about 1 to 15% of days, 6 to 20% of alerts get a click. Was 1 to 8%, which fits \"fires\" only"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 774,
            "terms": [
              "0.118"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.131, 0.118, 0.1814, 0.1742, 0.1417, 0.2537]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 1963,
            "terms": [
              "0.118"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.118"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 48,
            "terms": [
              "0.5%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_annoy = [0.08, 0.16, 0.28]          # P(an ad-heavy step frustrates) at baseline ad load; set so a 10% ad-load rise costs about 0.5% of sessions over a year (measured elasticities 0.04 to 0.09, research/07)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 784,
            "terms": [
              "0.118"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.131, 0.118, 0.1814, 0.1742, 0.1417, 0.2537]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3743,
            "terms": [
              "0.024"
            ],
            "excerpt": "eligibility = [0.002, 0.008, 0.024]"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Install-cohort day-N activity is not rolling 30-day retention of existing monthly users after 150 days; lapses and returns count in kept_share."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R02",
      "metric": "Retention of savers vs non-savers",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "people who save ideas revisit their profile and 'retain 28% better' than those who don't",
        "unit": "relative",
        "definition": "Retention of savers vs non-savers",
        "population": "Global users",
        "period": "2023-09-19"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest Investor Day, 2023-09-19 (transcript cited as INVDAY in research/02 §3B)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Investor Day",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 3.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "kept_share",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.8170719826803925,
        "scope": "Mean retention of starting monthly-user cohort; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "No saver/non-saver cohort retention outputs; a correlation is not an incremental retention effect.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "28%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 18,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 531,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Mobile app DAU / MAU, monthly | Apr 2026: 152M / 493M (31%); Jan 2026: 158M / 621M (25%); Dec 2025: 170M / 619M (27%); Jul 2025: 170M / 703M (24%); May 2025: 169M / 609M (28%) | AppMagic model | May 2025-Apr 2026 | same | READ (ratios are mine) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 852,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Start 2023 / Aug 2023 / Q1 2024 | API for Conversions revenue coverage | 14% / 28% / 40% | INVDAY; CALL:2023Q3; CALL:2024Q1 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1074,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Saving and retention | \"people who save ideas revisit their profile and retain 28% better than those who don't\"; personalization drives \"more than 60% increase in saves per monthly active user\" | Sep 19 2023 | INVDAY |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1183,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2024 | 3,646.2 | 1,011.8 | 28% | 161.5 | 4.4% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1184,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2025 | 4,221.8 | 1,166.7 | 28% | 168.8 | 4.0% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1239,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Apr 2016 | 26% | 28% | | 68% | |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1241,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Feb 2019 | 28% | 37% | | 69% | 73% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1488,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 95 | 2022 (Q4'22 call) | Conversion API used with Pinterest tag | \"average of 28% lift in the attributed checkout conversions and 14% improvement in the checkout CPA metric\" | adv-test | CAPI adopters | IR/doc_financials/2022/q4/Pinterest-Q4-2022-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1519,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 126 | 2026 (Q1'26, Q2'26 calls) | Ads model updates | unified shopping ROAS models: \"ROAS gains of up to 11%\" (Q1'26); ad-delivery updates: \"28% improvement in ROAS during testing for SMB advertisers using Performance+ with ROAS bidding\" (Q2'26); Smart Assembly \"6% improvement in click-through rate on average\" (Q2'26, early alpha) | experimentation / testing | as stated | IR/doc_earnings/2026/q1/transcript/Q1-2026-Transcript.pdf ; IR/doc_earnings/2026/q2/transcript/Q2-2026-Transcript.pdf | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1933,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Conversion API (2022)**: \"36% increase in attributed conversion volume when using both conversion API and tags\" in beta (Q3 2022 call, READ; the transcript garbles it as \"30% -- 36%\"); later \"an average of 28% lift in the attributed checkout conversions and 14% improvement in the checkout CPA\" (Q4 2022 call, READ)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2159,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 10 | Age mix of adult ad audience, global | 18-24 about 32%, 25-34 about 28%, 35-44 about 16%, 45-54 about 11%, 55+ about 14%; under-18 about 13% of total reach on top | med | DataReportal Oct 2025 |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 2181,
            "terms": [
              "28%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 32 | Retention by behaviour | Savers \"retain 28% better\" than non-savers (2023). In UCAN, users who search or save retain \"notably\" better than view-only users, and outbound clickers better again (2025). Correlations, no curve | low | Investor Day 2023; Q2 2025 call |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No saver/non-saver cohort retention outputs; a correlation is not an incremental retention effect."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R03",
      "metric": "Retention of action-takers vs viewers",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "in UCAN, users who search or save retain 'notably higher' than view-only users; higher again with outbound clicks",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Retention of action-takers vs viewers",
        "population": "UCAN",
        "period": "2025-08-07"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q2 2025 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 3.4"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "kept_share",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.8170719826803925,
        "scope": "Mean retention of starting monthly-user cohort; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "No UCAN viewer/searcher/saver/clicker cohort retention breakdown or historical comparison.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 674,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2025 | +55% | -25% | [Q2 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 684,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Why pricing fell while revenue rose [C].** Management says it is mix: new impressions came from low-eCPM international markets opened up through resellers and Google third-party demand. Q2 2025 was \"the 12th consecutive quarter since the middle of 2022\" in which impression growth came from both more total impressions and higher ad load ([Q2 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/2-quarter)). Pricing turned to +1% in Q2 2026 as the UCAN share of growth rose."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No UCAN viewer/searcher/saver/clicker cohort retention breakdown or historical comparison."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R04",
      "metric": "Gen Z engagement and retention",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "Gen Z have 'the deepest engagement, the highest retention'; US Gen Z ARPU 'roughly consistent' with millennials",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Gen Z engagement and retention",
        "population": "Global; US for ARPU",
        "period": "2026-09-09"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09",
        "publisher": "Pinterest (Communacopia)",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "kept_share",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.8170719826803925,
        "scope": "Mean retention of starting monthly-user cohort; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "No age-specific retention, engagement or revenue output matching Gen Z versus millennials.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 697,
            "terms": [
              "https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| International share of monetization | \"more than 80% of our users, still roughly 20% of our monetization\" | 2026-09-09 | [Communacopia transcript](https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/pinterest-inc_pins_earnings_call_transcript_2026-09-09). Reported non-UCAN revenue share was 25% in Q2 2026, so \"roughly 20%\" is loose |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No age-specific retention, engagement or revenue output matching Gen Z versus millennials."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R05",
      "metric": "Board users' churn",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "board users 'more likely to revisit, less likely to churn'",
        "unit": "qualitative",
        "definition": "Board users' churn",
        "population": "Global",
        "period": "2025-11-04"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q3 2025 call",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.2"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": "kept_share",
      "engine": {
        "mean": 0.8170719826803925,
        "scope": "Mean retention of starting monthly-user cohort; per-world values not exported"
      },
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not comparable",
      "observation_mapping": "No board-user versus non-board-user churn cohorts; existing-user rolling retention is a different quantity.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 2,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 675,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2025 | +54% | -24% | [Q3 2025 call](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 701,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Third-party demand | Amazon Ads (2023-04-27), Google (2024-02-08), Magnite (Q1 2025). Resellers in 30 markets (Q3 2024), 40+ countries (Q3 2025). Share of revenue not disclosed. \"First-party ad demand continues to be the primary driver\" | Q3 2025 call | [transcript](https://www.roic.ai/quote/PINS/transcripts/2025-year/3-quarter) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. No board-user versus non-board-user churn cohorts; existing-user rolling retention is a different quantity."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R06",
      "metric": "Notification volume by user state",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "wau_lift": 0.01,
          "notifications_to_dormant": -0.03,
          "to_resurrected": 0.17,
          "to_marginal": 0.07
        },
        "unit": "relative change",
        "definition": "Notification volume by user state",
        "population": "Users subscribed to push notifications, A/B",
        "period": "2020-04-24"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/user-state-based-notification-volume-optimization-7764118f73ff"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/user-state-based-notification-volume-optimization-7764118f73ff",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Engineering blog",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.2 row 134"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said (A/B test)",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "The published notification treatment, send volumes and lifecycle cohorts have no corresponding engine arm; no fair causal mapping.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://medium.com/pinterest-engineering/user-state-based-notification-volume-optimization-7764118f73ff",
          "0.01",
          "-0.03",
          "-3%",
          "0.17",
          "17%",
          "0.07"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 218,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 43,
            "terms": [
              "0.07"
            ],
            "excerpt": "slop = [0.03, 0.07, 0.12]              # P(a step shows unwanted AI imagery)"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 53,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "buy_given_click = [0.01, 0.03, 0.06]   # P(a click-out to a merchant ends in a purchase). Assumed: typical e-commerce conversion from referral traffic"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 116,
            "terms": [
              "0.07"
            ],
            "excerpt": "tolerance = 0.07"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 44,
            "terms": [
              "0.01",
              "0.07"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 47,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 56,
            "terms": [
              "0.01",
              "0.07"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 59,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "0.01",
              "0.07"
            ],
            "excerpt": "share_shift = [0.01, 0.03, 0.07]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/extras.toml",
            "line": 71,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ad_demand = [-0.02, -0.01, 0.0]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2431,
            "terms": [
              "0.17"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.17"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 3654,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1785, 0.5724, 0.1686, 0.05, 0.0205, 0.01]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/trend_terms.toml",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "0.01"
            ],
            "excerpt": "[[J01.groups]]  # vol 0.01, raised: the head term \"summer outfits\" is not served, so the fit sees almost no summer volume."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The published notification treatment, send volumes and lifecycle cohorts have no corresponding engine arm; no fair causal mapping."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R07",
      "metric": "Notification model lifts",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "push_opens": [
            0.009,
            0.026
          ],
          "email_ctr": [
            0.003,
            0.029
          ],
          "wau": [
            0.0009,
            0.0027
          ]
        },
        "unit": "relative lift ranges",
        "definition": "Notification model lifts",
        "population": "A/B tests, various",
        "period": "2025-08 to 2026-10"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://arxiv.org/html/2508.16793",
          "https://arxiv.org/html/2606.00422"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://arxiv.org/html/2508.16793 ; https://arxiv.org/html/2606.00422",
        "publisher": "Pinterest papers",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §4.2 rows 136-139"
      },
      "label": "academic",
      "supplied_label": "academic (company authors)",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "A generic reminder scenario does not implement the paper's retrieval systems, push opens, email CTR or WAU treatment definition.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://arxiv.org/html/2508.16793",
          "https://arxiv.org/html/2606.00422",
          "0.009",
          "0.9%",
          "0.026",
          "2.6%",
          "0.003",
          "0.3%",
          "0.029",
          "2.9%",
          "0.0009",
          "0.09%",
          "0.0027",
          "0.27%"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 115,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 31,
            "terms": [
              "0.003"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_rate = [0.003, 0.008, 0.016]       # P(a non-user's occasion lands on Pinterest), times regional penetration"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2215,
            "terms": [
              "0.026"
            ],
            "excerpt": "ios_share = 0.026"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/regions.toml",
            "line": 2430,
            "terms": [
              "0.029"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1559, 0.5354, 0.1958, 0.0673, 0.029, 0.0166]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 31,
            "terms": [
              "0.003"
            ],
            "excerpt": "acq_rate = [0.003, 0.008, 0.016]       # P(a non-user's occasion lands on Pinterest), times regional penetration"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 2164,
            "terms": [
              "0.029"
            ],
            "excerpt": "age_user = [0.1559, 0.5354, 0.1958, 0.0673, 0.029, 0.0166]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3760,
            "terms": [
              "0.003"
            ],
            "excerpt": "uptake = [0.003, 0.01, 0.02]"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 3778,
            "terms": [
              "0.003"
            ],
            "excerpt": "uptake = [0.003, 0.01, 0.02]"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 532,
            "terms": [
              "0.9%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Install retention | D1 11.8%, D7 2.4%, D30 1.3%, D90 0.9%, D365 0.5% | AppMagic | to Apr 2026 | same | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 965,
            "terms": [
              "0.9%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2025 (published Apr 2 2025) | By vertical, \"global averages\" | Retail: CTR 0.8-1.0%, CPC $0.50-0.70, CPM ~$3.00, CVR ~2.0%, CPA $7-8. Beauty: 0.7-0.9%, $0.40-0.60, ~$2.50, 1.5-2.0%, $7-10. Home decor: 0.6-0.8%, $0.50-0.80, $3-4, 1.0-1.5%, $10+. Food: 0.5-0.7%, $0.30-0.60, $2-3, 2.5-3.0%, $5-8. Finance: 0.3-0.5%, $0.80-1.50, $5+, 0.5-1.0%, $12-15 | none | TP | No sample, method or source given; treat as low quality | https://adbacklog.com/blog/pinterest-ads-benchmarks-per-industry-2025 | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1113,
            "terms": [
              "2.9%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Sep 2026 | 61.0% | 27.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.57B (-1.6% vs Aug) | TP (Vaneform; underlying panel not stated) | https://vaneform.com/e/pinterest-com | READ |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1176,
            "terms": [
              "2.9%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 2017 | 472.9 | 162.5 | 34% | 13.7 | 2.9% |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1393,
            "terms": [
              "0.27%"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| 25 | 2025-06 | TransAct V2, lifelong sequence up to 16k actions | vs TransAct: Homefeed Repin Volume +6.35%; Hide Volume -12.80%; Impression Diversity +0.45%; Time Spent on App +1.41%. Next-action-loss alone: +0.27% (n.s.), -6.26%, +0.08% (n.s.), +0.10% (n.s.) | A/B, 1.5% of home feed visitors per arm | all | AX/2506.02267 ; PE/next-level-personalization-how-16k-lifelong-user-actions-supercharge-pinterests-recommendations-bd5989f8f5d3 | READ |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. A generic reminder scenario does not implement the paper's retrieval systems, push opens, email CTR or WAU treatment definition."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R08",
      "metric": "Lifecycle state definitions used at Pinterest",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "core": "active multiple times a week",
          "casual": "about once a week",
          "marginal": "less than once a week",
          "new": "joined in past 28 days",
          "dormant": "not active for 30 days",
          "resurrected": "was dormant, active again in past 28 days"
        },
        "unit": "definitions",
        "definition": "Lifecycle state definitions used at Pinterest",
        "population": "Pinterest growth team",
        "period": "2014-08-20"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/data-driven-growth/38178518"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/data-driven-growth/38178518",
        "publisher": "Pinterest growth talk (slides)",
        "origin": "new"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "SNIPPET",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "Lifecycle definitions are not numerical targets; the simulator's rolling activity and lapsed-account pool do not export these exact states. Snippet unverified.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/data-driven-growth/38178518"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 0,
        "matches": [],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. Lifecycle definitions are not numerical targets; the simulator's rolling activity and lapsed-account pool do not export these exact states. Snippet unverified."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R09",
      "metric": "Search-driven new users and resurrections",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": "after Google's November 2021 change, 'fewer new users and resurrections'; UCAN MAU fell 16% peak to trough (Q1 2021 to Q2 2022)",
        "unit": "qualitative + derived",
        "definition": "Search-driven new users and resurrections",
        "population": "UCAN",
        "period": "2022-04-27; 2022-08-01"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [],
        "supplied": "Pinterest Q1 and Q2 2022 calls (research/02 §3B 3.3)",
        "publisher": "Pinterest earnings calls",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §3B 3.3; research/15 §1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "used to set priors",
      "observation_mapping": "world/base.toml attributes.web_search basis explicitly uses the 2021 web/app decline from research/02. Before/after decline is not Google's measured causal effect.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "2021",
          "16%",
          "2022"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 1033,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "world/base.toml",
            "line": 72,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "web_search = { value = [1.5, 2.0, 3.0], basis = \"assumed web/app search-shock ratio; direction from research/02 3B 3.2, web down about 30 percent vs app 6 percent in 2021; not an identified causal ratio\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "world/world.toml",
            "line": 72,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "web_search = { value = [1.5, 2.0, 3.0], basis = \"assumed web/app search-shock ratio; direction from research/02 3B 3.2, web down about 30 percent vs app 6 percent in 2021; not an identified causal ratio\" }"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 188,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "- **Bayesian networks, copulas, deep generative models**: for sparse or missing microdata. Copula method: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0159496 (2016). Review: https://www.jasss.org/25/2/6.html (2021)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/01-simulation-methods.md",
            "line": 197,
            "terms": [
              "2022"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| **World Values Survey wave 7** (2017–2022) https://worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp | 64 countries, 80,000+ respondents; demographics plus information-source items including internet and social media **[S]** | Free, no registration required per WVS announcement **[S]** |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 10,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "3B. Monetization before 2024, ad benchmarks, the 2021-22 decline and recovery, acquisition, overlap (gap research B)"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 34,
            "terms": [
              "2022"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Regional MAU, revenue, ARPU 2019 to 2022 | Fetched for this file from the 12 SEC press-release exhibits listed in section 1.1 | Read from the release tables |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 35,
            "terms": [
              "2022"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Regional MAU, revenue, ARPU 2022 to Q2 2026; impressions and pricing Q2 2024 to Q2 2026; recent launches; user-voice; landscape | Extracted from the eight local research files (deep dive of 2026-10-02 and ideas run of 2026-10-09). Original source and date kept | As checked in those files. Not re-fetched here |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 41,
            "terms": [
              "2021",
              "2022"
            ],
            "excerpt": "2. **Regional split changed.** Through Q4 2021 Pinterest reported United States and International. From Q1 2022 it reports US & Canada (UCAN), Europe, and Rest of World, with 2021 restated. There is no public three-region split for 2019 or 2020, and no US-only figure after 2021."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 50,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Old split (United States / International), 2018 Q4 to 2021 Q4**"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 63,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q1 2021 | 478 | +30% | 98 | 380 | [Q1 2021 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629321000091/q1-21xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 64,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q2 2021 | 454 | +9% | 91 | 363 | [Q2 2021 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629321000183/q2-21xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 65,
            "terms": [
              "2021"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q3 2021 | 444 | +1% | 89 | 356 | [Q3 2021 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629321000231/q3-21xpressrelease.htm) |"
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "world/base.toml attributes.web_search basis explicitly uses the 2021 web/app decline from research/02. Before/after decline is not Google's measured causal effect."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "R10",
      "metric": "Intra-quarter MAU reading",
      "category": "retention",
      "layer": "behaviour",
      "public": {
        "value": {
          "us_mau": 86600000.0,
          "global_mau": 436800000.0
        },
        "unit": "MAU",
        "definition": "Intra-quarter MAU reading",
        "population": "As of 2022-02-01",
        "period": "2022-02-03"
      },
      "source": {
        "urls": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm"
        ],
        "supplied": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm",
        "publisher": "Pinterest Q4 2021 release",
        "origin": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md §1.1"
      },
      "label": "Pinterest said",
      "supplied_label": "company said",
      "read_status": "READ-prior",
      "evidence_limit": "Read status is the research agent's record, not a fresh source verification. READ-prior was not reopened in this research input. SNIPPET, RECON and arithmetic are unverified; mixed rows retain those limits. Row-specific source_verification records any later reopening.",
      "engine_quantity": null,
      "engine": null,
      "tolerance": {
        "low": null,
        "high": null,
        "unit": null,
        "rationale": "Not scored: no fair independent observation mapping."
      },
      "status": "not exported",
      "observation_mapping": "The 2022 intra-quarter reading is not the current regional opening MAU allocation; no stored trajectory for that observation date.",
      "influence_audit": {
        "terms": [
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm",
          "8.66e+07",
          "86.6 million",
          "86.6M",
          "4.368e+08",
          "436.8 million",
          "436.8M"
        ],
        "matching_lines": 5,
        "matches": [
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 66,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "| Q4 2021 | 431 | -6% | 86 | 346 | [Q4 2021 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm) |"
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 68,
            "terms": [
              "86.6 million"
            ],
            "excerpt": "The Q4 2021 release also gave an intra-quarter reading: \"As of February 1, [2022], U.S. MAUs were approximately 86.6 million and global MAUs were approximately 436.8 million.\" It is one of the few public sub-quarter MAU points."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 997,
            "terms": [
              "86.6M",
              "436.8M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "Intra-quarter data points management gave (CR, READ): Jul 27 2021, US MAU down about 7% YoY and global up about 5% YoY (CALL:2021Q2). Nov 2 2021, US about 89M and global about 447M (CALL:2021Q3). Feb 1 2022, US about 86.6M and global about 436.8M (CALL:2021Q4). Mar 31 2022, US 85.2M and global 433.3M; Apr 25 2022, UCAN 94M and global 432.9M (CALL:2022Q1)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/02-pinterest-calibration-data.md",
            "line": 1292,
            "terms": [
              "86.6M"
            ],
            "excerpt": "12. **US versus UCAN MAU.** The Q4 2021 to Q1 2022 step from 86M to 94M is a definition change (Canada added), not growth. On the old US definition MAU fell from 86.6M (Feb 1 2022) to 85.2M (Mar 31 2022)."
          },
          {
            "path": "research/15-reality-tests.md",
            "line": 129,
            "terms": [
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm"
            ],
            "excerpt": "**Result.** None of the 120 historical calibration draws passed. In the three unfiltered worlds, median Q4 2021 US MAU was 90.54M, with a full observed world spread of 88.54M to 90.61M; global was 446.43M, from 445.55M to 452.25M. Pinterest reported 86M US and 431M global. The no-event arm missed the decline. Simulator values are computed in [replay-2021.json](../web/replay-2021.json); reported values were read from the [Q4 2021 release, 2022-02-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506293/000150629322000013/q4-21xpressrelease.htm)."
          }
        ],
        "search_scope": "world/*.toml and research/**/*.md; exact figure variants and source URLs",
        "interpretation": "A mention is not proof of prior use. Common percentages and shared sources can be unrelated.",
        "review": "No evidence of this target setting an input was found in the reviewed mapping. Research mentions alone are not prior use. The 2022 intra-quarter reading is not the current regional opening MAU allocation; no stored trajectory for that observation date."
      }
    }
  ]
}